We rarely post anything bearish, that was one of those, now that most of your favorite trading gurus out there are bearish we gradually begin to expect this correction on the S&P500 to bottom around 4300, catalyst to ignite a squeeze higher may be Wednesday’s FOMC

EURUSD target reached but never managed to get into the shorting zone, from here the original target at 1.10000 is achievable but obviously risk reward does not favor shorts from these levels

S&P500 starting to squeeze higher as anticipated from 4300, we expect it to tap 4700 before the end of the month

When traders hedge against a potential market crash that doesn’t materialize quick enough, their hedges decay fast, and they are forced to buy back at market in mass, resulting in a squeeze higher on the S&P500

We alerted about the bottom on the S&P500 at 4300 and we continue to expect further upside into 4700

S&P500 update, after a brief squeeze higher earlier in the week it’s back to a zone of interest, choppy but ongoing, nimbleness and flexibility required in a market without FED’s support, expecting further volatility but also expecting 4700 to trade before month end, have a great weekend everybody

Since Ukraine is once again the “hot topic” after the recent US comments about a possible full blown invasion from Russia here’s what we are seeing…

We lean on the optimistic scenario and we do NOT expect a meaningful escalation anytime soon, currently we are S&P500 dip buyers as we expect an easing of tensions (or simply no further escalation, which is enough to turn risk sentiment around) going forward

Obviously that can change, but right now it’s our base case, no invasion, no full conflict anytime soon, yet don’t expect it to be too straightforward, there will be plenty of volatility

S&P500 chopping on the geopolitical headlines, staying (cautiously) bullish here as we don’t expect the Ukraine situation to escalate into a conflict anytime soon, still targeting 4700 but we would be wrong on a clean break below 4300, have a great weekend everybody

4300 on the S&P500 is doing the same exact job it did earlier in February, we stopped on our initial longs with yesterday’s volatility but we will look to re entry on it again in the upcoming weeks with 4700 still in mind, path of de escalation (see chart from the post above this) is still our base case scenario, but geopolitical uncertainty for the time being dominates

Clearly disappointing developments in Ukraine as Russia is officially embarking on a full scale invasion which is taking place in these moments, we have been wrong on Russia’s (Putin) intentions, plain wrong…

There will be a time for de escalation, but that doesn’t appear near YET, now the markets depend on the FED (and other major CBs) reaction to the recent events, sit tight and be flexible, volatility will continue

Not an environment to have any high conviction trades, but the heavy sanctions on Russia, the geopolitical uncertainty in Europe, and a FED that is going to tighten regardless (inflation is all the FED cares about right now) point to inflows into a classic safe haven such as the Dollar

We hold a mild EURUSD bearish bias down to 1.10000 and will be looking to position accordingly upon (multiple) technical confirmations, remember this is a volatile market, conditions can change quickly, stay flexible, don’t FOMO into early entries, don’t FOMO into nonsense trades, keep it smart

EURUSD update, watch for Powell’s testimony coming up, the key focus is on how aggressive the FED wants to be against inflation (in March) after the recent geopolitical developments

EURUSD target achieved, it’s some USD strength yes, but it’s mostly EUR weakness amplifying the move, have a great weekend everybody

Will be sharing our consensus and our trade plan for the event early next week, keep it smart and have a great weekend everybody

Powell hinted at a 25bps hike (with a 50bps an option for later meetings) during his Congress hearings on March 2, and thus a 25bps hike will be, even tho that’s NOT enough to satisfy USD bulls in the immediate, Powell’s presser (and the FED’s dot plot) is likely to be…

With that said, our plan is to target 1.07000 on EURUSD going forward, looking to short into resistance (see chart above) or eventually short the breakout of the corrective structure, target 1.07000, just remember to keep it flexible, sentiment is volatile as the geopolitical situation remains uncertain

EURUSD, no trigger on shorts for us YET but it stays on our watchlist, to engage confidently with it we would want to see price break and hold below the corrective structure (see chart above) which may be something for next week, have a great weekend everybody

EURUSD chart slowly developing, but we would want to see more momentum from bears before we can sit confidently on shorts

Update on EURUSD, just a very subtle push lower this week, certainly lacking momentum but we continue to keep an eye on it as we are still macro bearish, have a great weekend everybody

Seeing and hearing some tangible progress in the ceasefire talks in Ukraine, geopolitical situation deescalating, peace talks doing some progress which is great to hear, that flips the EURUSD situation completely

We took a loss on some shorts earlier today, and we may shift bullish if the negotiations talks continue to show (tangible and meaningful) progress, this is why we stress that flexibility is important in these rapidly evolving environments, if the macro narrative changes, don’t fight it, adapt

To put it into perspective, if the Ukraine deescalation goes forward (and that seems the base case at the moment) then EURUSD goes back to 1.12700 levels, keep it VERY flexible