Clearly disappointing developments in Ukraine as Russia is officially embarking on a full scale invasion which is taking place in these moments, we have been wrong on Russia’s (Putin) intentions, plain wrong…

There will be a time for de escalation, but that doesn’t appear near YET, now the markets depend on the FED (and other major CBs) reaction to the recent events, sit tight and be flexible, volatility will continue

Not an environment to have any high conviction trades, but the heavy sanctions on Russia, the geopolitical uncertainty in Europe, and a FED that is going to tighten regardless (inflation is all the FED cares about right now) point to inflows into a classic safe haven such as the Dollar

We hold a mild EURUSD bearish bias down to 1.10000 and will be looking to position accordingly upon (multiple) technical confirmations, remember this is a volatile market, conditions can change quickly, stay flexible, don’t FOMO into early entries, don’t FOMO into nonsense trades, keep it smart

EURUSD update, watch for Powell’s testimony coming up, the key focus is on how aggressive the FED wants to be against inflation (in March) after the recent geopolitical developments

EURUSD target achieved, it’s some USD strength yes, but it’s mostly EUR weakness amplifying the move, have a great weekend everybody

Will be sharing our consensus and our trade plan for the event early next week, keep it smart and have a great weekend everybody

Powell hinted at a 25bps hike (with a 50bps an option for later meetings) during his Congress hearings on March 2, and thus a 25bps hike will be, even tho that’s NOT enough to satisfy USD bulls in the immediate, Powell’s presser (and the FED’s dot plot) is likely to be…

With that said, our plan is to target 1.07000 on EURUSD going forward, looking to short into resistance (see chart above) or eventually short the breakout of the corrective structure, target 1.07000, just remember to keep it flexible, sentiment is volatile as the geopolitical situation remains uncertain

EURUSD, no trigger on shorts for us YET but it stays on our watchlist, to engage confidently with it we would want to see price break and hold below the corrective structure (see chart above) which may be something for next week, have a great weekend everybody

EURUSD chart slowly developing, but we would want to see more momentum from bears before we can sit confidently on shorts

Update on EURUSD, just a very subtle push lower this week, certainly lacking momentum but we continue to keep an eye on it as we are still macro bearish, have a great weekend everybody

Seeing and hearing some tangible progress in the ceasefire talks in Ukraine, geopolitical situation deescalating, peace talks doing some progress which is great to hear, that flips the EURUSD situation completely

We took a loss on some shorts earlier today, and we may shift bullish if the negotiations talks continue to show (tangible and meaningful) progress, this is why we stress that flexibility is important in these rapidly evolving environments, if the macro narrative changes, don’t fight it, adapt

To put it into perspective, if the Ukraine deescalation goes forward (and that seems the base case at the moment) then EURUSD goes back to 1.12700 levels, keep it VERY flexible

EURUSD remains driven by geopolitical headlines, chop between “deal” and “no deal” with threats along the way from leaders is a regular activity at every negotiation table, beware of the chop

The 1.12700 level remains our target IF (pay attention to the IF) a truce gets agreed, there’s some ground for optimism but more progress is needed, have a great weekend everybody

A few short term technicals we are watching on the Dollar, scenario NOT active yet but we would be interested in shorts purely from a seasonal point of view as Dollar weakness in mid April is a consistent seasonal theme, see chart for technical details

AND remember it’s just a short term theme for the next couple of weeks, in May we will have one of the most hawkish FOMC in a while with a 50bps hike and QT announcement and we certainly don’t want to be short USDs into that

Remember to read the Crypto Global Macro note for the Quarter, it’s a 5 minute read and if you own any crypto you will be grateful you took a look, whether you agree with it or not just be wary of what the macro context is telling, don’t be the lazy one that then gets caught off guard

Meanwhile, the USD setup above never managed to reclaim March highs, hence no trigger, have a great weekend everybody

Targeting 1.27800 on USDCAD…

It’s gradually approaching the time to start buying USDs into the May 4 FOMC, USDCAD longs in one of our candidates, see chart above for technical details

Quick stop on USDCAD as it stretched through our buying zone, looks like a temporary technical squeeze and we are still looking for USD longs into the May 4 FOMC, so we will be keeping an eye on higher timeframe price action to give us the green light to enter long again

A few updated notes on USDCAD…

We continue to expect USD strength heading into the May 4 FOMC with a 50bps hike and QT announcement, from a technical point of view also is worth noticing the POC shifting to higher levels, USDCAD expected “fair value” still around 1.27800

No sign of bulls on USDCAD, we need a strong and meaningful (higher timeframe) bullish price action here at support to engage with the second round of longs, and so far nothing, keep an eye on Powell’s speech today for some volatility, his only speech until the May 4 FOMC