The next detailed update on crypto will be up on Friday for the new quarter, and no, it’s still NOT bullish yet

The objective, rational, and logical macro picture for the crypto market for the new quarter

Don’t listen to the “up only” crypto guru, listen to the macro environment, have a great weekend everybody

Short USDJPY to 130.000…

From reflation to deflation, the markets are quickly moving from the former to the latter, look across the board, notice OIL, US yields, and commodities, all down substantially from their highs, those are deflation and recession concerns creeping in as growth is slowing down remarkably across the world, we expect those flows to spill over to FX going forward with decent JPY strength over a medium term time horizon

We are looking for JPY longs across the board, with particular attention to USDJPY shorts, we target 130.000 over the medium term with short term adjustments along the way

With Friday’s strong NFP yields bounced and USDJPY went for the upside break of the technical structure, so we took a tiny loss on Friday and now waiting for higher timeframe price action before engaging with shorts again

Keep it tight, picking tops is obviously never too straightforward but the risk reward is always attractive, monitoring Wednesday’s CPI as the next potential trigger

Deflation? clearly not yet, the most recent CPI is yet another surprise higher, 100bps hike on the table at the next FOMC, with these developments we are NOT looking for USDJPY shorts any longer, keep it flexible and don’t fight the FED, they are going to get even more aggressive

With Friday’s strong NFP, yesterday’s high CPI, and now the hints at an upcoming 100bps rate hike from the FED, the latest crypto update just got even more important, don’t get caught off guard, and don’t fight the FED

Long USDCNH up to 7.10000 zone…

Not a popular FX pair, but it’s providing a clear opportunity for the upcoming months

As the world grinds into a global recession, the Dollar should remain favorite against more vulnerable emerging markets currencies such as the Chinese Yuan

It’s a medium to long term trade backed by a macro fundamental outlook and a clean technical setup which gives us a good risk reward, we are long already with the Private Network and looking to add on dips, stay smart

Large PMI misses across Europe this morning and now also US PMIs printing well below consensus, we are talking about leading indicators showing clear footprints of a global recession, not to be overlooked

Volatility will continue to increase, make sure you have the right minds around you because there will be plenty of noise out there

While most of our focus is on USDCNH longs in terms of Dollar long exposure we also see some potential building in EURUSD shorts…

The gas supply situation remains under threat in Europe while the ECB promises to deliver substantial rate hikes right as Europe grinds into a meaningful slowdown

Recession and large rate hikes won’t match well for a vulnerable EUR, and thus we like to be EUR bears in this context, we expect EURUSD to potentially get around 0.99000 over the coming weeks

Again, USDCNH long is our favorite Dollar long exposure at the moment, but short EUR is nonetheless an attractive shorter term alternative for the week

Keep in mind, we got a first decent bearish reaction from our “ideal shorting zone” on EURUSD, now purely from a technical point of view we don’t want to see price hanging around the zone for too long, as long as price stays below yesterday’s highs we can stay bearish but if it starts to grind higher deep into the shorting zone we may have to readjust

Eyes on USDCNH… Nancy Pelosi’s bravery, Taiwan strait tensions, China firmly against Pelosi’s Taiwan visit, weak Chinese PMIs, all reasons for some good old short term volatility for the Chinese Yuan

Thank you for the answers, you should know our consensus already given the USDCNH and EURUSD mentioned recently.

We are medium term Dollar bulls and expect new highs for the DXY, but we are careful in expressing it ONLY against more “vulnerable” currencies such as the two mentioned above.

Short term focus is on the NFP and then quickly on next week’s CPI, two important numbers for markets’ sentiment going forward, stay smart

Good NFP on Friday, great, but softer CPI today, not so great…

Since many of you asked for an update on USDCNH, we are still long, use dips to your advantage and don’t micromanage, have a great weekend everybody

Short EURUSD to 0.99…

Energy prices in Europe still rising, recession risks lower in the US but not in Europe, gas supply situation still under threat.

We are short EURUSD already with the Private Network from 1.02500, targeting 0.99, trade accordingly there’s still plenty of room to target and opportunities to short on pullbacks

USDCNH new yearly highs, we are still long…

EURUSD heading for new lows, we are still short, have a great weekend everybody

EURUSD shorts target at 0.99 reached…

Gas supplies remain under threat for Europe, and energy prices are still high and rising, context which inevitably weights on Europe’s growth and thus the EUR, and context matters