We just cut the USDJPY shorts for a tiny loss, recent FED communication is now indicating another 25bps hike at the next FOMC despite the data we have seen this week which would have suggested the opposite.

Markets will likely need to reprice expectations and add that extra 25bps hike so that's going to help USDJPY take the highs again so we cut the trade and we wait for the next developments both fundamentally and technically

The short term fundamental context has changed on Friday, we now look for another 25bps hike from the FED so looking for a short term long on the Dollar this week.

The chart above is the technical plan we are looking at to short EURUSD, NOT a trade yet, just a plan for now, it will turn into a trade when we get the technical trigger we want to see, a push up followed by a rejection back below the weekly open

Not wasting any time, it didn't give us an entry to short yet but we are expecting more downside over the week, this Dollar move is that extra 25bps hike being priced in and there's a bit more room for it to continue

Technical structure developing but still pointing lower to that main liquidity level, fundamental context still the same and still pointing lower too

Still accumulating and holding the corrective structure, it will get a lot more interesting when we start breaking the structure with a move below 1.0940, fundamentally watching the PCE this week and obviously the FOMC next week

Still no technical trigger on EURUSD, will share more details when we have a setup to enter the trade, could form over the next couple of days

Still NO trigger on EURUSD but we think this accumulation will resolve to the downside so we continue to look for short setups.

Fundamentally keeping a close eye on the PCE and ECI numbers today, they are two inflation metrics closely watched by the FED so they will shape the fundamental sentiment across the board, anything ABOVE consensus and the case for EURUSD downside strengthens.

But again, for us there is still NO technical trigger and we are NOT short yet, just interested in potential shorts when we see a technical confirmation which looks like it will be when that trendline breaks

Technical structure breaking and fundamentals strengthening the bearish bias with the numbers from the US on Friday and the ISM today, all just a tiny bit inflationary or at least NOT as disinflationary as the FED would want which suggests the possibility of an extra rate hike in June.

We have our USD longs running already heading into the FOMC on Wednesday

FOMC today is the catalyst to watch carefully, we took some profits on some Dollar longs yesterday but still overall looking for a fundamental move lower on EURUSD so we will be looking to engage with Dollar longs again.

Also keep in mind that with the upcoming FOMC the expected 25bps hike is ALREADY priced in so the focus is on the expectations for the June FOMC rate decision and whether Powell keeps that option open or rules that out, THAT will shape the trends and sentiment to trade over the next couple of weeks

Not a lot of forward guidance from Powell yesterday, June is open both to a hike and a pause so there is not a lot to do with it until we see the NFP on Friday and CPI next week.

With that said, we are anyway long USD at the moment but NOT with EURUSD shorts yet, better to position against a high beta currency such as AUD, long term kind of position tho with a wide stop for us.

Shorter term on EURUSD will share more details when we have a clean entry to take

The NFP today is one fundamental piece done already toward another rate hike, the next one is the CPI next week, if that’s also a beat then we will see EURUSD at 1.08300

A good bunch of FED speakers and CPI are scheduled this week so it's an interesting one for the Dollar and for the expectations around the June FOMC rate decision, will share more details if we see important fundamental developments

Quite an important CPI today since it will further shape expectations for the next FOMC rate decision, at the moment the technical and fundamental view on EURUSD hasn't changed and it still suggests a move lower to that 1.08300 but we are open minded to a possible shift in fundamental context today.

If the CPI later is above expectations then we can continue with USD longs as the market will start to price in an extra 25bps hike from the FED, but of course, a lower then expected number would change the context completely

Fundamental context hasn't changed, still the USD after the latest CPI

Still looking for that 1.0830 as target, also should see some momentum when 1.09 breaks

Target on EURUSD approaching, we took some profits already on the USD longs but will keep running some longer term positions as this sentiment has plenty of potential to continue

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Lots of FED speakers scheduled this week so we listen closely, will share if we see anything worth mentioning

Bits of hawkish hints from FED speakers so far, nothing too hawkish but there is openness to another rate hike if needed, plenty more still scheduled to speak tho with Powell on Friday too.

So keeping an eye across the board for the next short term opportunity to take, right now we are just holding some longer term USD longs