FOMC today is the catalyst to watch carefully, we took some profits on some Dollar longs yesterday but still overall looking for a fundamental move lower on EURUSD so we will be looking to engage with Dollar longs again.

Also keep in mind that with the upcoming FOMC the expected 25bps hike is ALREADY priced in so the focus is on the expectations for the June FOMC rate decision and whether Powell keeps that option open or rules that out, THAT will shape the trends and sentiment to trade over the next couple of weeks

Not a lot of forward guidance from Powell yesterday, June is open both to a hike and a pause so there is not a lot to do with it until we see the NFP on Friday and CPI next week.

With that said, we are anyway long USD at the moment but NOT with EURUSD shorts yet, better to position against a high beta currency such as AUD, long term kind of position tho with a wide stop for us.

Shorter term on EURUSD will share more details when we have a clean entry to take

The NFP today is one fundamental piece done already toward another rate hike, the next one is the CPI next week, if that’s also a beat then we will see EURUSD at 1.08300

A good bunch of FED speakers and CPI are scheduled this week so it's an interesting one for the Dollar and for the expectations around the June FOMC rate decision, will share more details if we see important fundamental developments

Quite an important CPI today since it will further shape expectations for the next FOMC rate decision, at the moment the technical and fundamental view on EURUSD hasn't changed and it still suggests a move lower to that 1.08300 but we are open minded to a possible shift in fundamental context today.

If the CPI later is above expectations then we can continue with USD longs as the market will start to price in an extra 25bps hike from the FED, but of course, a lower then expected number would change the context completely

Fundamental context hasn't changed, still the USD after the latest CPI

Still looking for that 1.0830 as target, also should see some momentum when 1.09 breaks

Target on EURUSD approaching, we took some profits already on the USD longs but will keep running some longer term positions as this sentiment has plenty of potential to continue

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Lots of FED speakers scheduled this week so we listen closely, will share if we see anything worth mentioning

Bits of hawkish hints from FED speakers so far, nothing too hawkish but there is openness to another rate hike if needed, plenty more still scheduled to speak tho with Powell on Friday too.

So keeping an eye across the board for the next short term opportunity to take, right now we are just holding some longer term USD longs

Move pretty much done on EURUSD, short term technically looks ready for a pullback but longer term fundamentally keep in mind we should continue to look for further USD strength

Powell today, we listen for whether he leans towards the possibility of another rate hike or not, that will set the sentiment to drive the next Dollar move

Nothing really actionable from Powell, have a great weekend everybody

Potentially looking for some short term Dollar shorts over the next couple of days, nothing solid yet tho, will share a chart with more details when we see a setup

Still NO trigger, we would like to see EURUSD get above 1.08 to make a long technically interesting, while fundamentally watching the FOMC minutes coming up later and then the PCE on Friday

The key snippet from the FOMC minutes, just highlights that the FED is split between more hikes and no more hikes, nothing that's not known already, the PCE on Friday will shape the sentiment better

We are short EURGBP, fundamentally looking for this chop to resolve to the downside towards 0.86 while technically we like the little fakeout of the trendline with the two previous highs taken out too

We just took the EURGBP shorts out here around breakeven, fundamentally still very much valid but technically looks like it wants to run the highs at 0.8710 again, so we will be looking for another short entry next week at a better level