New quarter guys so new crypto update just published to share our thoughts on BTC as usual, for questions, insights, doubts, you can reach out @JayRally

Slowly the overall medium term fundamental context for the Dollar is turning more mixed guys.

Nothing convincing enough to put a trade on for us but we keep that in mind because we have been bullish USD for most of its recent trend higher and…

Now that sentiment is gradually changing.

So just a bit of medium term fundamental context to keep in mind for now to start adjusting to the next possible direction…

Will share MORE details with confirmation when and if we take some Dollar shorts

There it is…

We are long NZDUSD.

Targeting slightly above 0.6050

Squared the NZDUSD longs in small profit ahead of the NFP.

There is a decent risk that the data today for the US prints better than consensus, so adjusting for that.

Will evaluate whether to jump long again right after the release or not, depending on the data itself

Dollar pullback ongoing, and that’s where the fundamental context REALLY comes useful.

With the right context you can get the sense of whether a trend should continue or not.

And that puts you on the right side of the flow to ride the right trades

And now looking for Dollar longs again, why?

From a fundamental point of view the CPI from the US today reinforces the higher for longer narrative which favors the Dollar as a whole.

While technically EURUSD in particular has faked out the highs above 1.06 and is now printing a beautiful bearish engulfing on the daily chart.

So, fundamentals now suggest a bit of Dollar strength ahead and technicals suggest the same story with lower EURUSD…

And that makes a trade for us.

Targeting near 1.0440

Dollar longs protected with stop loss at breakeven already for us.

Still expecting further USD strength and eventually EURUSD to hit 1.0440, but always manage your trades anyway.

Powell speaks later today

Alright, fundamentally Powell was a tiny bit hawkish earlier.

And technically price keeps on failing to break above that 1.06…

So we probably get another EURUSD short to take soon.

Will update with a chart if and when we see a clear trigger to position again

Nothing on this yet guys.

Also EURUSD looks fairly comfortable above 1.06 now.

Maybe we get something interesting with the ECB rate decision later on Thursday…

Will share a chart with more details as usual when we see something actionable

There it is.

We are short EURUSD.

Target near 1.0440

Stop loss is already at breakeven for us.

ECB rate decision later today to keep an eye on

We just took profit on the EURUSD shorts after the US data.

Nothing with the ECB or the US data itself but rather the price action across the board looks and feels like it wants to squeeze some late Dollar bulls.

So just adjusting to that

Yes.

Price action matters.

It’s NOT just fundamentals or technicals.

It’s both.

Both is what gives you the RIGHT context to trade effectively.

Have a great weekend everybody

New educational article just published while we wait for the FOMC.

It’s the shortest but at the same time MOST insightful one we have published so far, for real

We are long AUDNZD.

The RBA meets tonight for their interest rate decision and the market is NOT yet fully convinced of a 25bps hike.

We are, and we expect the RBA to hike 25bps.

So that’s going to give a little boost to AUDNZD.

Not a big one, likely just a small 30 or 40 pips...

But after that, looking for gradual a trend continuation towards 1.10

So, 25bps hike but with a hint of dovish forward guidance from the RBA.

Not the ideal short term scenario, but nothing to take the trade out yet.

Giving AUDNZD a couple more sessions to see if it can trade back above 1.0880.

If it does, that’s a great indication for a resumption higher.

If it doesn’t, we cut the trade early

Stopped out on the AUDNZD longs.

Wait…

We don’t hide losing trades?

No.

Sometimes you catch it right, sometime you don’t.

That’s REAL trading.

So where’s the difference made?

Risk reward

CPI from the US tomorrow.

Not much to expect heading into it.

Will see if we get something interesting after