And now looking for Dollar longs again, why?

From a fundamental point of view the CPI from the US today reinforces the higher for longer narrative which favors the Dollar as a whole.

While technically EURUSD in particular has faked out the highs above 1.06 and is now printing a beautiful bearish engulfing on the daily chart.

So, fundamentals now suggest a bit of Dollar strength ahead and technicals suggest the same story with lower EURUSD…

And that makes a trade for us.

Targeting near 1.0440

Dollar longs protected with stop loss at breakeven already for us.

Still expecting further USD strength and eventually EURUSD to hit 1.0440, but always manage your trades anyway.

Powell speaks later today

Alright, fundamentally Powell was a tiny bit hawkish earlier.

And technically price keeps on failing to break above that 1.06…

So we probably get another EURUSD short to take soon.

Will update with a chart if and when we see a clear trigger to position again

Nothing on this yet guys.

Also EURUSD looks fairly comfortable above 1.06 now.

Maybe we get something interesting with the ECB rate decision later on Thursday…

Will share a chart with more details as usual when we see something actionable

There it is.

We are short EURUSD.

Target near 1.0440

Stop loss is already at breakeven for us.

ECB rate decision later today to keep an eye on

We just took profit on the EURUSD shorts after the US data.

Nothing with the ECB or the US data itself but rather the price action across the board looks and feels like it wants to squeeze some late Dollar bulls.

So just adjusting to that

Yes.

Price action matters.

It’s NOT just fundamentals or technicals.

It’s both.

Both is what gives you the RIGHT context to trade effectively.

Have a great weekend everybody

New educational article just published while we wait for the FOMC.

It’s the shortest but at the same time MOST insightful one we have published so far, for real

We are long AUDNZD.

The RBA meets tonight for their interest rate decision and the market is NOT yet fully convinced of a 25bps hike.

We are, and we expect the RBA to hike 25bps.

So that’s going to give a little boost to AUDNZD.

Not a big one, likely just a small 30 or 40 pips...

But after that, looking for gradual a trend continuation towards 1.10

So, 25bps hike but with a hint of dovish forward guidance from the RBA.

Not the ideal short term scenario, but nothing to take the trade out yet.

Giving AUDNZD a couple more sessions to see if it can trade back above 1.0880.

If it does, that’s a great indication for a resumption higher.

If it doesn’t, we cut the trade early

Stopped out on the AUDNZD longs.

Wait…

We don’t hide losing trades?

No.

Sometimes you catch it right, sometime you don’t.

That’s REAL trading.

So where’s the difference made?

Risk reward

CPI from the US tomorrow.

Not much to expect heading into it.

Will see if we get something interesting after

Literally.

Look at the CPI numbers from earlier today and you will know the overall fundamental direction across the board for the next couple of weeks.

Quite a meaningful print…

And it cements the idea that the FED won’t need to hike any further.

And that matters.

Anyway, with that in mind…

Currently just sitting on some longer term trades with the Private Network.

Will alert about the next medium term trade we take, keep an eye out for it

Guys, we are on Substack too.

Will be posting some interesting trading content there regularly.

And I mean exclusive content that we won’t share anywhere else.

So if you want to follow us there as well…

You can check it right here:

besomebodyfx.substack.com

And yes, you can engage with comments and all that other good stuff that you can do on Substack

Thank you for all the positive feedback on the Substack idea.

It’s great to hear that’s being appreciated.

Thank you.

Now keep an eye out for some potential USD shorts next week…

We already have some longer term Dollar shorts running from earlier this week.

But we will likely soon add some medium term positions to it.

Will alert with a chart and more details when we take action.

Have a great weekend everybody

There it is, a potential long on GBPUSD looks to be setting up this week.

Seasonality is bullish for the pair and overall bearish USD over the next couple of weeks.

The fundamental context strongly suggests further Dollar weakness ahead since the soft CPI.

And Friday printed a solid bullish engulfing on the daily chart.

In other words...

Seasonals, fundamentals, and technicals, all aligned.

And that makes a trade for us

That’s what the fundamental context does.

You know in which direction you should position.

And you also know in which direction you shouldn’t position.

So you can get in the right trades, and at the same time avoid getting stuck in the wrong ones.

Quite an advantage, yes

GBPUSD doing its thing.

No reason to expect the trend to change yet