Long on AUDUSD setting up again.

Interesting mix of data from the US today.

Shows still a fairly strong labor market on the headlines BUT with prior NFP releases that get revised lower, and…

ISM services almost in contractionary territory.

Plus on top of that, the CPI next week from the US should be on the soft side.

The point?

The point is that Dollar shorts are again an interesting trade fundamentally.

While technically on AUDUSD there’s a clean impulse from a nice technical zone, and right after it flushed the lows during the NFP.

So…

Fundamentals and technicals aligned again.

And that makes a trade for us.

Target 0.6895

Thank you for all the interest as always.

All seats filled, next ones in March...

Have a great weekend everybody

Mostly sideways action so far this week.

US CPI tomorrow.

Unlikely it's going to be a super soft print.

But should still favor well for the disinflationary story overall

Bit more details for the CPI tomorrow.

No big print, but no super soft either

Squared the AUDUSD longs for half a stop after the CPI print.

Inflation from the US a bit on the hot side relative to expectations, which turns the fundamental context around slightly.

We may even get some Dollar longs to take soon

Price action this morning on a different tune.

So nothing to take action on, just a lot of sideways chop.

Will share a chart and more details when we see something interesting to position for

Guys, remember that we have an official website where you can see our official contact details, official Telegram channel link, and so on…

besomebodyfx.com

There’s also a chat function there so that you can be ABSOLUTELY sure you are talking to us.

So please guys…

Do NOT fall for the average random copycat channel on Telegram pretending to be us.

I know you know that already...

But a reminded is always good, just in case

Patience guys.

Patience is KEY to trade consistently long term.

Don’r rush into trades, go for quality rather than quantity.

So while we wait for the next solid trade to share here, give a read to our latest post on Substack:

besomebodyfx.substack.com

Solid one

Starting to build the case for some Dollar shorts later into the week.

Will share more details with a chart as usual when and if we take action on it

We are long AUDNZD.

Expecting the CPI from New Zealand later tonight to be a bit on the soft side.

Why?

China should be exporting some deflation, RBNZ is super tight with rates at 5.5%, and CPI in Australia printed on the soft side two weeks ago.

So…

We like the risk reward of positioning for a weak CPI tonight and a more dovish RBNZ ahead.

That should soften the NZD, and lift AUDNZD higher.

Target 1.0950

Quick stop on AUDNZD.

New Zealand CPI overnight not as soft as it could have been.

So the core of the trade idea didn't unfold as we would have wanted it, so trade stopped

Alright guys, PCE from the US tomorrow.

That’s Powell’s preferred measure of inflation…

So it’s going to shape sentiments and trends heading into the FOMC next week.

We talked about it in more detail on Substack, here:

besomebodyfx.substack.com

Will share if any interesting trade opportunity comes out of it.

Currently we are biased towards a soft print which could give us some Dollar shorts to take.

But NO setups to take action yet

We are short EURGBP.

Liking the technical lineup here with that fakeout of the highs and the hourly close back below the weekly open.

Fundamentally we also have a medium term bearish bias on the pair as inflation in the EU is slowing a lot faster than in the UK.

Meaning the ECB will have to cut rates much earlier than the BoE.

So…

Medium term fundamental bias, short term technical trigger.

Target 0.8460

Keep in mind guys.

BoE rate decision tomorrow and we don't have the cleanest read on that.

So we took a bit of profits already to reduce the trade size.

Keeping a good half running tho

Still going on the remaining half of the EURGBP shorts.

Not doing much tho, just a bunch of chop right now.

But, fundamentally this chop will likely resolve to the downside, so...

Letting the small remaining size of the trade run

We have the stop loss at breakeven on the EURGBP shorts now.

The CPI from the UK tomorrow will decide whether this breaks lower towards the target or not

Soft CPI from the UK this morning.

So rest of the EURGBP shorts near breakeven.

If there's a trade that can be defined choppy, this is the one

Ok guys.

Very straightforwardly if you want to know where the Dollar is most likely heading next, we just published an indepth article about that on Substack, here:

besomebodyfx.substack.com

That’s going to give you a clean read into the most likely long term trends ahead.

Useful to be on the right side of the various fundamental scenarios

Short EURUSD after the latest PPI print from the US is the trade setting up.

The FED needs to stay high for longer with the numbers from the US.

While the ECB can cut anytime with the EU numbers.

Policy divergence there...

Target 1.06

Stopped on the EURUSD shorts.

Sometimes the context is right, the technicals are right, the setup is right, all looks right…

But the market just ends up doing its thing.

So yes, even the best looking setups can be proven wrong sometimes.

That’s why risk management and risk reward are ALWAYS important