Still there on the S&P500.

We are projecting that 5700 to reach by mid to late July.

But with this chop so far looks like it could take a little longer.

Either way…

Still long and bullish

We have stop loss at breakeven already on the S&P500 longs.

Still looking for that 5700 late in the month

Starting to trail stop loss up in profit on the S&P500.

US CPI on Thursday will be an important piece of data.

Still targeting that full 5700 but ready to adjust if the data on Thursday will require so

US CPI tomorrow.

Remember…

If the CPI is above consensus that will be more than enough to trigger a decent pullback on the S&P500.

While if instead it’s below consensus then that 5700 will be reached much earlier than anticipated.

Just a bit of context.

Either way…

Longs on the S&P500 for us are already protected with stops trailed up well in profit

Alright.

Trailed out in profit on the S&P500 longs on this pullback.

Still expecting 5700 to be reached to be honest, but...

We might get a bit of a corrective structure now to build up fuel for the next leg higher

Keep an eye on GOLD.

Posted more details on our Substack this week, here:

besomebodyfx.substack.com

Yes, that’s 2700.

Have a great weekend everybody

Halfway to 2500 already.

And the seasonal flows haven’t even started yet.

Just saying

Looking to long GBPUSD on a dip.

UK inflation this morning proves still a bit too high for the BoE.

While instead the story is the opposite in the US with plenty of disinflation going.

So the overall context is well set for GBP outperformance and USD underperformance.

Target 1.3130

By the way.

Yes headline CPI is at 2%.

But I’m talking about services inflation which is at 5.7% while the BoE expected it 5.1%.

That’s a metric highly watched by the BoE and that’s still too high for them.

So that won’t allow a rate cut in August

Stopped on the GBPUSD longs for now.

Squeezed by the risk off hitting across equities.

Which led to a turn in sentiment across FX pairs too.

Keeping an eye out for a reentry as 1.31 is still likely to be reached sooner or later.

But no rush with it, letting this pullback play out fully first

Also, what triggered this?

Rumors have it that Biden is about to drop out of the presidential race.

So Trump will have to face someone else in November, and...

That’s rebalancing markets' expectations, how?

Well, Trump extending his lead after the June 27 presidential debate was one of the multiple reasons for the bullishness in US equities over the past couple of weeks...

And so with the latest developments that sentiment is unwinding now.

Just a bit of context

The pebble that started the avalanche.

Waiting patiently for the right trade in this context

We are short GBPUSD.

Short term trade that we are looking to square before the FOMC.

Target 1.2750

Stop loss at breakeven already

Hit breakeven on GBPUSD.

Will update if we get another entry

There it is, we are long EURGBP.

Looking for a 25bps cut from the BoE later today which currently is only 65% priced in.

Which means if they deliver on it the Pound will drop 50 to 60 pips across the board.

Obviously if they don't cut the opposite is true, but there's a decent possibility they deliver on it.

Target 0.8520

Still there.

We got that 25bps cut from the BoE earlier but fairly muted reaction.

Bailey’s presser also wasn’t dovish enough…

So not getting much fuel from the fundamental side of it.

But technicals are not too bad here, so…

Giving the trade a couple more hours to decide what it wants to do

Ok, much better.

Stop loss at breakeven now.

And letting this run

First part of the move done.

Starting to trail the stop loss in profit now

Trade done.

Have a great weekend everybody