Looking to long GBPUSD on a dip.

UK inflation this morning proves still a bit too high for the BoE.

While instead the story is the opposite in the US with plenty of disinflation going.

So the overall context is well set for GBP outperformance and USD underperformance.

Target 1.3130

By the way.

Yes headline CPI is at 2%.

But I’m talking about services inflation which is at 5.7% while the BoE expected it 5.1%.

That’s a metric highly watched by the BoE and that’s still too high for them.

So that won’t allow a rate cut in August

Stopped on the GBPUSD longs for now.

Squeezed by the risk off hitting across equities.

Which led to a turn in sentiment across FX pairs too.

Keeping an eye out for a reentry as 1.31 is still likely to be reached sooner or later.

But no rush with it, letting this pullback play out fully first

Also, what triggered this?

Rumors have it that Biden is about to drop out of the presidential race.

So Trump will have to face someone else in November, and...

That’s rebalancing markets' expectations, how?

Well, Trump extending his lead after the June 27 presidential debate was one of the multiple reasons for the bullishness in US equities over the past couple of weeks...

And so with the latest developments that sentiment is unwinding now.

Just a bit of context

The pebble that started the avalanche.

Waiting patiently for the right trade in this context

We are short GBPUSD.

Short term trade that we are looking to square before the FOMC.

Target 1.2750

Stop loss at breakeven already

Hit breakeven on GBPUSD.

Will update if we get another entry

There it is, we are long EURGBP.

Looking for a 25bps cut from the BoE later today which currently is only 65% priced in.

Which means if they deliver on it the Pound will drop 50 to 60 pips across the board.

Obviously if they don't cut the opposite is true, but there's a decent possibility they deliver on it.

Target 0.8520

Still there.

We got that 25bps cut from the BoE earlier but fairly muted reaction.

Bailey’s presser also wasn’t dovish enough…

So not getting much fuel from the fundamental side of it.

But technicals are not too bad here, so…

Giving the trade a couple more hours to decide what it wants to do

Ok, much better.

Stop loss at breakeven now.

And letting this run

First part of the move done.

Starting to trail the stop loss in profit now

Trade done.

Have a great weekend everybody

By the way.

Some of you already know, but many of you don’t yet, so…

We have a Youtube channel with a good bunch of educational content on various fundamental subjects, here:

https://youtube.com/@besomebodyfx

Straightforward, useful, and actionable knowledge to understand more about how we trade

Keep an eye on the geopolitical headlines from the Middle East this week guys.

Feels off, and if something goes wrong, you know…

GOLD is where you want to be.

Just saying

We are long EURGBP.

Technical setup with the break in market structure.

While backed by the soft CPI print in the UK.

Target 0.8640

Still there.

But, from a technical point of view...

Looking for an hour candle close back above the weekly open within the next couple of hours.

If it doesn't do that, we cut the trade

When right, let it run

When wrong, cut it

First step done, next is 2700.

Have a great weekend everybody