Again, stop loss at breakeven and going

Have a great weekend everybody

About 9 days from Trump taking office and triggering a wave of “risk on” or “risk off” depending on his moves.

How can you be ready for it?

Study.

The 2019 trade war is a textbook historical example to study.

We’ve posted more details on X, see this

We are starting to trail the stop loss in profit on the CADCHF longs.

Still on track to target, but risks are rising and it will be volatile over the next week

Trailed out in profit yesterday

When you know the fundamental context, you know where things are going to trend to.

GOLD now getting comfortable above 2700

It’s time, will share if we take any interesting trade out of Trump’s first days in office

We are long EURUSD.

Rumors going around that Trump won't roll out any tariffs yet.

That's bearish for the Dollar.

Target 1.0630

Change of plans, we just closed the EURUSD longs here near breakeven.

Trump’s official position is more like...

Tariffs just not on day one but soon.

So mixed sentiment at the moment

Meanwhile GOLD obviously loving this uncertainty, as expected

2800 about to be reached on GOLD.

Next? We target 2900

News is NOT noise.

It’s a symphony of market sentiment.

And once you know how to read it right, you can dance with it.

We got out of the EURUSD longs this week too early after Trump’s second comment which blurred the sentiment a bit.

Sometimes you read the context right, but it’s not as clear as you would like and you end up missing the move, it happens.

Have a great weekend everybody

In case you missed it.

Posted an update on GOLD yesterday on our Substack, here:

besomebodyfx.substack.com

We are still long and bullish.

Target remains 2900

It’s still all about tariffs.

Trump’s expected to make his official announcement today for Canada, Mexico, and China.

If it’s an immediate tariff (effective within a couple of days) then expect Dollar strength early next week.

If it’s a delayed tariff (which gets into effect on March 1 for instance) then expect Dollar weakness instead.

It’s that straightforward now.

Any questions, feel free to get in touch @JayRally

It’s official.

Trump announced a 25% tariff on Canada, 25% on Mexico, and 10% on China, effective on Tuesday, so pretty much immediately.

Canada is already looking to retaliate, and so a new trade war has started.

Watch out for gaps at the open.

Mostly Dollar strength and safe havens inflow

Now keep in mind, Trump will hold talks with Canada and Mexico today.

If talks go well and tariffs are reversed…

Markets will pivot into risk on sentiment with USD and JPY weakness.

But instead…

If tariffs end up going into effect tonight (as per schedule) then we get another leg of short term risk off (USD strength, JPY strength) and then further continuation over the next days.

Those are the two main sentiments right now, everything else is noise

We are long CADCHF.

Trump's got a deal with Mexico to delay the tariffs.

That makes a deal with Canada too quite likely now.

Target 0.6380

We have the stop loss at breakeven already on the CADCHF longs.

Very early on the trade, and still quite near entry.

But necessary given the risks ahead

You’ve probably heard already.

Trump’s got a deal, and tariffs delayed on Canada too.

So there you go, that’s fundamental analysis.

Build a thesis, trade that thesis

We have the stop loss already trailed in profit on the CADCHF longs.

Canada labor data ahead could pivot sentiment around if it prints too soft

We just took profit on CADCHF.

Have a great weekend everybody