Full video will be published this Wednesday on our YouTube channel.

https://www.youtube.com/@besomebodyfx

Make sure to give us a follow there if you haven’t yet

You’ve seen us trade it

A single tariff announcement, a trade deal, a ceasefire talk, or a single comment from Trump can move markets left and right

Why?

Because geopolitics matter

Here’s how you can use it in your trading:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1sPFs-xYdn4

9 minute video to REALLY see the hidden logic behind market sentiment

By the way guys.

If you missed yesterday’s post on Substack, here:

besomebodyfx.substack.com

It’s a MUST read to understand what’s going on with US equities.

And also why we are holding off from dip buying (for now)

We are short AUDJPY since the FOMC yesterday.

Simple risk off trade.

Recession risks, stagflation risks, tariff risks, you name it.

Target 90.5

As usual, lots of flexibility required.

The news flow on tariffs pivoted to a more positive direction over the past 24h with a WSJ piece hinting at a more narrowed (softer) approach for the April 2 reciprocal tariffs.

So, for the time being we have reduced the AUDJPY short size by half here near breakeven.

Will then evaluate during the week whether to add size to it again or not.

In other words…

Trade still running but with reduced size now

Another upgrade on GOLD from Goldmans (see attached post for context on their previous calls)

We are still NOT buying dips.

The direction of travel with inflation and growth is a problem.

The only way we can see sentiment turn around (and us start buying the S&P500) is if Trump decides to go VERY soft on tariffs.

I’ve gone into more detail on the variables on the April 2 tariffs with our latest post on Substack, here:

besomebodyfx.substack.com

Next week will share if we get anything interesting to trade out of it

We have stop loss at breakeven on the AUDJPY shorts now

Trade war with China is about to hit a new level.

Trump yesterday announced his universal reciprocal tariffs (risk off).

And particularly what stands out to us is China, a 34% additional tariff (even more risk off).

It’s fairly big in addition to the current existing ones.

In simple…

Expecting AUDJPY to reach 90.5 over the next week or so.

Just beware of the volatility

And obviously, S&P500 at new lows.

We are still NOT buying dips (yet)

And in case you haven’t realized it yet.

This downturn is VERY purposefully engineered (see attached post)

That was quick

We are still NOT buying dips in the S&P500 (or NASDAQ, or whatever) just yet.

Why?

The snippet above tells you EVERYTHING you need to know about this administration's philosophy right now.

They won't rescue markets yet.

Listen very closely

This is what a trade war between the US and China looks like.

Australia is a collateral damage of the escalation so the impact is really evident on AUDJPY.

Escalating tensions = Risk off = AUDJPY lower

If you want to learn how it works, we have a video on that:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SMyWvJzKR7E

Next week (once again) risk sentiment will be key

We are short EURGBP.

Trump pivoted on the reciprocal tariffs.

And so looking to fade the whole move from April 2.

Target 0.8320

To give you a bit more context behind EURGBP.

The whole move up from April 2 was based on the reciprocal tariffs from Trump.

Yesterday Trump announced a 90 day pause on that plan, so?

So the whole reason why EURGBP went up since April 2 has now be retracted.

In other words…

Price should be back near 0.83200 (where it was before the April 2 announcement) unless Trump pivots again.

At the same time there's a nice pin bar on the daily chart, and right at higher timeframe resistance.

So both fundamentals and technicals fairly aligned here

Wrong take here, stopped on EURGBP.

Sometimes the market’s just on a different page.

Lots of EUR demand still ongoing

New target from Goldmans on GOLD.

3700 next (we agree)

Went into a bit more detail with this on our Substack, here:

besomebodyfx.substack.com

Context matters

Add this to the many reasons to be bullish GOLD.

If Trump manages to find a way to fire Powell, then…

GOLD gets way higher then 3700, at least 4000