USDJPY is walking into the same bait again.

1. Price is back in Japan’s intervention zone
2. JPY shorts are at record highs
3. If Japan steps in again, the unwind will get violent fast

By far one of the best trade opportunities right now!

Full video here:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5rUy4ZDViQM

(the level matters, but the positioning is what makes the setup even more dangerous, full details in the video)

It’s time to share the truth and tell it how it is!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6VJtI1F-C3Y

Your technical analysis can lie to you (unless you understand this)

USDJPY, extremely counter consensus view.

And against the current macro context (hawkish FED)

But…

USDJPY is likely near a substantial macro top.

1. Positioning is VERY stretched
2. Japan will intervene sooner rather than later

The same type of setup happened at the past 2 peaks of extreme JPY shorts.

June 2007
July 2024

The market was extremely one sided on JPY shorts.

And it peaked shortly thereafter, triggering a LARGE multi month unwind!

(July 2024 was also at the same exact price it's at right now)

We are long the S&P500.

1. Bullish seasonality for the next month or so
2. Geopolitical context leans risk on
3. Technical structure upside break

Target 7700

S&P500, stopped out.

Faked out on the bullish breakout yesterday.

Annoyingly sometimes that's just part of it.

Will look for another entry later into the week.

Dollar starting to overshoot a little from rate expectations here.

We're probably close to a short term top.

Nothing high conviction tho.

Just worth keeping in mind not to FOMO into Dollar longs up here.

We are starting to look for signs of exhaustion and reversal for a potential trade.

Every time a perfect chart setup gets stopped out, it's easy to yell "manipulation!"

But the brutal truth is that the market makers aren't hunting your stops.

It’s actually SIMPLER than that, let me show you:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=byr-z_9FReE

(this changes how you read every technical setup completely)

Likely the top at least until the NFP next week.

The market overshot itself on the FED’s rate expectations and is now rebalancing.

Have a great weekend everybody!

Setup we are watching on EURUSD after the NFP.

Warsh yesterday came out a little dovish.

NFP now printing slightly soft (with notable downward revisions to priors too)

And in all that...

OIL is back to pre Iran levels, meaning inflation is old news.

Is Warsh really going to hike in this?

Nah!

Target 1.1620

Listen, if you want to learn fundamentals…

Absorb and squeeze every bit of knowledge from these live indepth insights.

Full 10 minute macro analysis on the Dollar published now:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mgdh6bn2zK0

Take notes, ask questions, make your trading more informed!

Not the ideal geopolitical developments going on.

That threatens the view on EURUSD a bit.

But we're still long for now.

Just slightly lower conviction.

For it to get going, the geopolitical context needs to quiet down a bit again to bring OIL prices lower!

The CPI from the US next week is now the most important piece of the puzzle for this trade to fully take shape.

Anything slightly on the soft side (which is quite likely given the lower energy prices in June), and it will get going.

Why we’re bearish on the Dollar:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vecdQeZrEkc

Note: The geopolitical context is heating up again this weekend, so that’s going to increase volatility and market chop, and if OIL prices start rocketing (for a sustained period of time) higher again, the whole thesis for Dollar weakness goes out the window!

Exactly as anticipated.

CPI from the US comes in soft!

Everything was explained in detail ahead of time.

Taking shape now!

Still expecting more downside on the Dollar ahead.

Just the geopolitical context is capping the move for now.