🇺🇸⚔️🇮🇷 The U.S. has deployed the MV Ocean Spec Ops Command (SOC) mothership to Diego Garcia

Satellite image from Sentinel 2 on May 7th reveals a highly significant arrival at NSF Diego Garcia

🔸Likely spot of Spec Ops Command (SOC) mothership, MV Ocean Trader, safely anchored inside the atoll.
🔸USNS Pililaau & an Arleigh Burke also in the lagoon.

My last definitive spot was way back in Nov 2025 off the coast of Puerto Rico. I had a potential sighting on Apr 13 2026 in the Med approaching the Suez Canal. This spot in the Indian Ocean strongly validates that earlier track.

When the Ocean Trader slides into theatre—much like what we saw with previous posturing around Venezuela—more complex operations tend to follow.

Does her arrival indicate SOCOM elements are actively gearing up for the next phase?

🔗 MT Anderson

🥩 Beef and veal prices climbed 12.1% from March 2025 to March 2026, ranking as the fifth-largest contributor to US food inflation behind only instant coffee, tomatoes, roasted coffee, and lettuce.

And the 12.1% retail jump actually understates the pressure.

Wholesale beef prices ran 19.7% higher year-over-year in March 2026, while farm-level cattle prices were up 16.2%, meaning more inflation is still working its way down the supply chain to grocery shelves.

The root cause is a supply backdrop that's the tightest in three generations:

U.S. cattle inventory stood at 86.2 million head as of January 2026, its smallest size in 75 years.

The beef cow breeding herd is down to 27.6 million heads, the smallest since the early 1960s.

The average retail price of a pound of ground beef is near $6.70, a record high in BLS data going back to 1984.

🔗 Hedgeye

🇺🇸 The 30-year Treasury yield is testing the ceiling for bonds again:

The US 30-year Treasury yield is back up to 4.96%, knocking on the 5% threshold for the 3rd time since 2023.

Every previous test of this level has been followed by a sharp pullback in global equities, and a sustained break above 5% would push yields into a trading range not seen in nearly 2 decades.

At 5%, government bonds become attractive enough to pull capital away from stocks, while simultaneously raising borrowing costs for mortgages, credit cards, and corporate loans, squeezing consumers and businesses alike.

This comes as traders are now pricing in the possibility of a Fed rate hike in 2027, driven by fears that the Iran war oil shock could reignite inflation and force the Fed's hand.

A sustained break above 5% would be the worst possible outcome for global stocks.

🔗 Global Markets Investor

🇯🇵🇺🇸 Japan is likely SELLING US Treasuries to defend the yen:

Federal Reserve custody holdings of US Treasuries fell by -$8.7 billion to $2.73 trillion in the week ending May 6.

This is consistent with Japan selling US government debt to fund an estimated $54.7 billion in yen purchases over the same period, according to Bloomberg.

Since 2022, Japan has spent more than $200 billion in total defending the yen, selling US Treasuries each time to raise the dollars needed for intervention.

Importantly, Japan is the largest foreign holder of US government debt, and continued Treasury sales could put further upward pressure on US yields at a time when they are already rising due to surging oil prices and growing fiscal deficit concerns.

In past interventions, Japan did not draw down its cash reserves, according to Bank of America, implying the funding likely came entirely from bond sales.

If the same pattern held this time, the total impact on US Treasury supply from this intervention would be around $70 billion, further lifting yields.

Japanese interventions are adding pressure to the Treasury market.

🔗 Global Markets Investor

🇺🇸 65% of Americans can't afford a new home.

@CIG_telegram

🇺🇸 Wall Street banker: 'Does anyone really care if the Strait of Hormuz is open?'

Despite war and tariffs driving worries about US affordability, attendees at this year’s Milken Institute conference were notably untroubled — gliding between Spago dinners, a speech by Tom Brady and parties at billionaires’ Bel Air homes.

Many of the investors, bankers and corporate chieftains who took over the Waldorf and Beverly Hilton this week have become desensitised to President Donald Trump’s whims. The stock market hitting new records, even if investors are attempting to pull tens of billions of dollars from some private funds, has helped those spirits.

Financiers largely brushed off concerns that have dominated conversations on Wall Street in recent months, including the war with Iran, which has driven up petrol prices across the US and is now dividing policymakers at the Federal Reserve over whether they can eventually cut interest rates.

“Does anyone really care if the Strait of Hormuz is open?” one high-powered banker posited.

Even as Milken held a panel to debate whether private equity groups would be able to exit their ageing buyout portfolios with roughly $4tn of unsold assets, the faithful were steadfast, pointing to new flagship funds raised by the likes of KKR, Blackstone and Ares as a sign that they would survive recent pressures.

“They might not like a lot of what’s happening in Washington, but at the end of the day, everyone’s focused on their own investment portfolios, especially here,” said Ted Koenig, chief executive of Monroe Capital.

One London-based hedge fund manager said the conference had crystallised how relatively removed the US has been from the conflict’s effects, despite being an active participant in the war.

“No one in Europe has this level of optimism,” he said. “There is enthusiasm based on the greater adoption of AI and positivity about the economy. In Europe, the tone is at best cautious optimism or healthy scepticism.”

📝 Luke Gromen: This comment might be the leader in the clubhouse for this cycle's Chuck Prince famous 2007 comment ("...as long as the music's playing, you've got to get up and dance.")

🔗 https://archive.ph/c96i0

🤖 AI could end scarcity, end humanity or boost GDP growth by 0.2%/year.

Which is more likely to happen?

@CIG_telegram

🛢 OPEC production has collapsed from a 3½-year high of around 29.6 million b/d to a 36-year low of 20.6 million b/d in just two months.

Several “release valves” have so far helped cushion the shock, most notably a surge in U.S. exports, a massive IEA-coordinated SPR release, China’s import constraints and pause in stockpiling, and - not least - demand destruction that has led to lower refinery runs.

🔗 Ole Hansen