FOMC minutes: The Fed remains cautious on inflation, with most officials still seeing one more hike this year.

Buybacks aren't working: Treasury raised the 10-30Y buyback cap to $6B, yet the 10Y climbed to 5.35% and the 30Y neared 5.7%. Actual purchases are also below the cap.

Why it matters: Buybacks improve liquidity but don't cut funding needs. Heavy supply, deficits and term premium are still driving yields higher.

Relative value is shifting: BofA sees S&P 500 annualized returns under 5% over the next decade, while Treasuries offer a better starting yield. Gold slipped below $4,100.

Bitcoin: ~$83,487. Liquidity sits around $87K. $82,929 is key demand. Below that: $76K-$80K, then $70K-$73K.

Can crypto hold up if yields keep climbing? 👀

AI is running on debt: Oracle, Broadcom, and SpaceX have issued nearly $500B in new debt this year to fund AI infrastructure, and Broadcom and SpaceX are exploring $100B+ more.

Credit is pricing it in: Broadcom’s 5Y CDS is at 136bps and Oracle’s at 261bps. CDS levels aren’t direct default forecasts, but they show investors want higher risk premiums.

Shared risk: Many of these borrowers depend on the same AI demand cycle. If it falls short, cash flows could come under pressure at the same time, even through SPVs, leases, or asset-backed structures.

Cost of capital: Long-term Treasury yields are near two-decade highs, and Fed’s Musalem says more tightening may be needed over the next 6 to 9 months. Financing costs won’t fall quickly.