🇪🇺🤝🇨🇳China agrees to half hybrid vehicle exports as EU secures tariff savings but there's a catch

What China apparently agreed to is to halve exports of hybrid cars measured against the EU's projections of future exports.

That's according to Maroš Šefčovič himself at his press conference in Beijing: "According to the projection we have, that’s more than halving of the exports of hybrids and plug-in hybrids into the European Union under no change scenario"

In other words, what that almost certainly means in practice is that Chinese exports of hybrid cars to Europe will keep growing, but at a slower pace than the EU projected.

The numbers confirm this: last year China exported roughly 500,000 hybrid cars to the EU Šefčovič said that his deal to halve hybrid exports corresponded to "several million cars over four years" mathematically, for this to happen, the EU's "no change scenario" must assume something like 4 to 6 million Chinese hybrids over four years - that's 1 to 1.5 million a year, two to three times last year's level.

Lastly, small reminder that, unlike the US, the EU largely welcomes Chinese carmakers building factories on its soil, and cars made there aren't covered by this deal at all. That's in fact the EU's stated hope: that limiting exports pushes Chinese brands to produce in Europe.

Europe played the same game with Japan in 1991: an export restraint that lasted until 1999 and ended with Toyota and Nissan building factories in Europe.

Chinese brands are already on that path, with Chery reviving the old Nissan plant in Barcelona.

🔗 https://euperspectives.eu/2026/10/china-eu-hybrid-exports-tariff-deal/

📎 Arnaud Bertrand

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