🇾🇪🇸🇦⚡️- BREAKING: Visual confirmation of a massive fire in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, following an impact by an Ansarullah ballistic missile.

— 🇮🇷/🇴🇲 NEW: Another oil tanker was struck by Iran, according to UKMTO in a delayed report

This marks the 4th vessel to be struck in the Strait of Hormuz since yesterday.

@Middle_East_Spectator

—❗️🇸🇦/🇾🇪 NEW: Another attack is ongoing against Riyadh, the capital of Saudi Arabia

@Middle_East_Spectator

🇺🇸 🇺🇦 🇷🇺 Reporter: "You said Russia and Ukraine agreed to a ceasefire, but both sides say they have not agreed to that..."

Trump: "They agreed. You know why? Because I said, 'You agree' — that's why. They agreed because I said they agreed, and that thing has to get settled."

📎 Rapid Response 47

📢 🇮🇱 🇵🇸 Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich:

We need to wipe out Gaza, for example. Not commit genocide, God forbid.

Wipe out Gaza, because Gaza, as a terrorist entity, with 1.8 million Nazis ... should not exist.

📎 Clash Report

📝 🇮🇷 🇺🇸 Mario Nawfal on X: Is Iran really losing control of the Strait of Hormuz, or are we being misled about how much oil is getting through?

I've been trying to understand something that doesn't quite add up.

Iran has demonstrated that it can strike commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz. Yet shipping data suggests millions of barrels of oil are still leaving the Gulf every day.

So I brought maritime expert Sal Mercogliano and economist Philip Pilkington together to challenge each other's conclusions.

Sal says the evidence is there. Tankers can be tracked loading, leaving the Gulf and eventually unloading at foreign ports. He estimates nearly 12 million barrels a day were getting through before the latest escalation.

Philip doesn't trust those figures. He suspects wartime information management is making the shipping situation look considerably better than it really is.

What made the discussion interesting was that they actually agreed on something important.

Neither believes the current situation is sustainable.

Sal thinks continued Iranian attacks could eventually make tanker operations too dangerous and expensive. Philip believes Iran already has the military advantage in a prolonged war of attrition.

And there's another possibility we explored: some shipping companies may be quietly paying Iran for safe passage, although the scale of any such payments remains unverified.

We still disagree about the numbers.

But the debate left me wondering whether we've been asking the wrong question.

Maybe the real issue isn't how much oil America can force through the strait today, but how long it can keep doing so without losing ships, exhausting its resources or accepting Iran's demands.

📝 Mario Nawfal is joined by Philip Pilkington and Sal Mercogliano

📎 Mario Nawfal

🇪🇹🇪🇷⚡- A major build-up of Ethiopian National Defense Forces around Bure in northern Afar, along Ethiopia's border with Eritrea.

On the opposite side, Eritrea is also massing forces. No clashes have yet occurred on this axis.

— 🇸🇦/🇾🇪 Latest updated map on the Taizz front, Yemen:

– Ansarallah have pushed into the Jabal Saber heights south of Taizz city, capturing the village of Al-Sarari and approaching the peak of Jabal Aroos.

– The PLC initiated a limited but successful counteroffensive in western Taizz city, expelling Ansarallah from Al-Hanjar checkpoint and the Hamraa heights east of it. Clashes are now centered around Al-Kasarah.

– PLC forces still control the critical mountain ‘Jabal Han’ northwest of Taizz city. As long as this is the case, it will be difficult for Ansarallah to keep control over Al-Hanjar checkpoint.

@Middle_East_Spectator

—❗️🇸🇦/🇾🇪 NEW: A ballistic missile struck the perimeter of Riyadh Airport minutes ago, with smoke columns rising

@Middle_East_Spectator