☪️ The U.S.-Israeli war with Iran cratered the economies of the Middle East according to IMF forecasts

The only Middle Eastern economy expected to record GDP growth is Oman.

The biggest losers are Iraq and Kuwait whose GDP is expected to contract by 16% and 16.7% respectively, followed by Qatar with its GDP contracting by 15.6%, Bahrain contracting by 11.3%, followed by Iran contracting by 7.6%

The GDP of Saudi Arabia is forecasted to contract by 3.3% but the continued war with Ansarallah/Houthis could change things for the worse rather quickly and cause the Saudi economy to contract even further.

@CIG_telegram

🛢 Brent Crude has has reached $117/barrel.

The Brent Crude price is now $2 away from surpassing the most recent all time peak of $119/barrel hit in June 2022 in the background of the Russo-Ukrainian War.

@CIG_telegram

🇺🇸🇺🇦 Aide to the Ukrainian president, Sergey "Flash" contradicts some reports appearing in Western media that Starlink restrictions on Ukrainian drones were lifted.

🔗 https://t.me/serhii_flash/7826

🇷🇺⚔️🇺🇦 Ukraine's economy shrinks 2.4% y/y in September as Russian strikes bite

Ukraine's economy shrank 2.4% year-on-year in September as Russian strikes hit industry and transport, Kiev's Institute for Economic Research and Policy Consulting (IER) estimated on October 20.

The decline deepened from August, which the IER revised to a 1.9% contraction on new agricultural data. In its monthly economic monitor the institute estimated that real GDP was lower over the first nine months of 2026 than a year earlier, and it now expects a full-year fall of about 0.5%, citing a further deterioration in October and a higher base.

The numbers mark a sharp turn for an economy the IER still had growing 1.3% y/y in July. Kiev-based investment group ICU abandoned its growth forecast on October 14 and now sees GDP shrinking 0.6% this year and 1.9% in 2027, the worst performance since the first year of the full-scale invasion.

Transport took the heaviest blow, with value added down 20% in September. Restrictions on Black Sea ports and problems on the railways are pushing freight onto the roads, the IER said, but hauliers are short of drivers and trucking costs far more than shipping by sea. Ukraine's own exports have been caught in the drone war on ports, with traffic through the three Odesa region seaports down by nearly 95% in August and September.

Output in the extractive industry fell 12.3%, mainly on lower iron ore production, with natural gas output making up part of the gap. Manufacturing dropped 7%, dragged down by metallurgy after Russian missiles and drones shut large steel plants. Defence production limited the fall, though the IER noted that arms makers lack long-term contracts.

Agriculture contracted 5.6% after a fall of about 12% in August. With exports constrained, farmers are storing grain in bags, silos and mobile elevators, and they have sown less land, which the IER warned could hurt the 2027 harvest. Trade fell 5.5% on lower exports and the destruction of warehouses, and electricity and gas distribution was down by about 11%.

The institute warned that the closure of metallurgical plants and changes in how large retailers operate could cut employment and the wage bill. "High uncertainty leaves the possibility of further revisions to calculations," it said. The IER figures are analytical estimates; the State Statistics Service publishes official GDP data quarterly.

🔗 https://www.intellinews.com/ukraine-s-economy-shrinks-2-4-y-y-in-september-as-russian-strikes-bite-478414/

🇮🇷🇺🇸🇮🇶⚡️ — BREAKING: A source in Iraq's Coordination Framework tells Iraqi Kurdish media Channel8 that Iraqi Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi was informed of a U.S. strike against Iran in the coming days.

The U.S. and Iraqi governments both warned against the Islamic Resistance in Iraq joining the conflict, with the U.S. warning it would "heavily impact the country's political system and state stability" and Iraq warning they will be confronted "according to the law".

🇮🇶🇮🇶⚡️ — A source in Iraq's Coordination Framework tells Channel8 that ongoing negotiations between the Iraqi government and the Islamic Resistance in Iraq have yielded no fruit, with a compromise proposed by the Islamic Resistance in Iraq where missiles and UAVs are kept by the militias under government supervision was rejected.

Kata'ib Hezbollah and Harakat Hezbollah al-Nujaba remain unwilling to disarm their weaponry.

Pro-Iran Iraqi factions are also planning to launch protests in response to the closure of the al-Sheeb border crossing, which a source in the Coordination Framework tells Channel8 is due to "shadow groups" consisting of 5-10 individuals conducting attacks on Iran's behalf that are difficult to trace.

🇮🇶❌🇾🇪 — A source in Iraq's Coordination Framework tells Channel8 that Iraqi Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi has ordered the closure of Ansarallah's office in Iraq and the deportation of all 7 Ansarallah figures present inside the country. There were more present in the war against ISIS and the Iran War, but most have reportedly left.

🇫🇷⚠️📈 French bond market STRESS is intensifying:

The spread between French and German 10-year bond yields has widened to 178 basis points, its highest level since late 2011, during the European debt crisis.

This comes as French 10-year yields surged as much as +13 basis points to 5.14%, their highest level since 2002.

The 10-year yield is now on track for a nearly +30-basis-point move in 1 week, its largest weekly increase since March 2025.

The selloff extends beyond bonds, with France’s CAC 40 falling more than -1% to near its lowest level since March, down over -11% since August.

Investors are retreating from French assets amid political gridlock, budget uncertainty, surging energy prices and renewed protests over the cost of living.

With next year’s presidential election approaching and few clear catalysts to restore confidence, French borrowing costs are likely to rise further and remain elevated.

Contagion risk in the eurozone is rising again.

🔗 Global Markets Investor

🇫🇷⚠️📈 France's national credit risk is surging faster than during any previous modern CRISIS:

France’s 10-year government bond yield spread over Germany spiked by more than 30 basis points, marking its largest weekly increase in at least 36 years.

This surpasses even the largest increases recorded during the Eurozone debt crisis of 2010-2012.

French bonds experienced an unprecedented wave of selling.

🔗 Global Markets Investor

🔼 🛢 Brent oil surges +3.2% to above $118/bbl., the highest level since 2022.

📎 Hedgeye

🇷🇺⚔️🇺🇦 Situation on the Omelnik direction, Zaporozhskaya Oblast:

Over the last few weeks, Russian forces have intensified their assault operations in the Omelnik direction, making important advances across multiple different areas.

In the northeast, Russian forces pushed the Ukrainians further away from Priluki, recapturing a series of treeline positions just east of the railway line. From here, they are carrying out deep infiltrations through the treelines north of Vozdvizhevka where they are attempting to consolidate, and are launching assaults on Ukrainian positions to the north near Kosovtsevo and Rizdvyanka. Russian DRGs and individual infiltration groups were also detected operating in and around the village of Lyubitskoe.

To the south, the Russians regained control over the railway line east of Verkhnya Tersa and cleared the village of Tsvetkovoe from earlier Ukrainian infiltrations. From here, they were able to establish control over a number of treeline positions southeast of Vozdvizhevka, and are now attempting to infiltrate the southeastern part of the village and the eastern approaches to Lesnoe. Other Russian assault groups are infiltrating through the large grey-zone north of Verkhnya Tersa, reaching the eastern approaches to Dolinka.

To the southwest, Russian forces continued their gradual advance west of Zaliznichnoe, and managed to capture a forested gulley south of Gorkoe. From here, they are launching assaults on Gorkoe from the south, where clearing operations against Ukrainian positions are underway. Infiltrations west and southwest of Gorkoe are also being carried out, supported by an ongoing expansion of the control zone along the highway north of Gulyaipolskoe (Komosomolskoe).

Further southwest, following the complete capture of Gulyaipolskoe (Komsomolskoe), the Russians were able to establish control over the fields south of Novosyolovka and the southern part of the village. From here, they are infiltrating further west down both banks of the Zherebets River, entering the northern part of Novosyolovka and the fields south of Yegorovka. Some small groups of Russian infiltrators have also been able to cross the Zherebets River and enter Yegorovka from the south, from which they are infiltrating north towards Shirokoe and west into the eastern outskirts of Omelnik. Fighting also continues for Chervonaya Krinitsa and the surrounding areas, where a large grey-zone remains.

🔗 AMK Mapping

🇺🇦⚔️🇷🇺 Situation on the Orekhov direction, Zaporozhskaya Oblast:

Over the last two weeks, Ukrainian forces have been carrying out a series of counterattacks and clearing operations in the Orekhov direction, amid continued Russian assault operations on the western flank of the city.

Following the arrival of new reinforcements, including from the 7th Corps, Ukrainian forces began conducting a series of clearing operations and counterattacks in Orekhov and Malaya Tokmachka, as well as in the surrounding areas, aimed at blocking Russian forces within the city and pushing their main forces away from the city limits.

In the east, Ukrainian forces managed to eliminate the Russian infiltration zone north of Malaya Tokmachka, and cleared the northern part of the town from earlier Russian infiltrations. They also managed to regain control over some positions in the town centre, where heavy fighting is now ongoing with Russian forces.

To the west, the Ukrainians cleared the western part of Malaya Tokmachka from earlier Russian infiltrations and re-established control over positions along the railway line and highway. They also managed to clear the village of Preobrazhenka from earlier Russian infiltrations, thereby completely re-establishing control over the northern bank of the Konka River in this sector, and most of its southern bank. Other Ukrainian assault groups are carrying out clearing operations in Orekhov, where they were able to push the Russians away from the city centre, back to the southeastern-most streets, where fighting is now underway. They also managed to clear the northwestern outskirts of Novodanilovka and are attempting to reinforce their position in the northern part of the village in order to block the remaining Russian soldiers within Orekhov.

Further west, Russian forces continued their assault operations towards Orekhov from the west, and managed to expand their zone of control along the highway and the treelines to the south. This has allowed infiltrators to begin entering the northern streets of Novoandreevka, with some even managing to penetrate as far as the highway intersection northeast of the village. Additional infiltrations into the western part of Novoandreevka are also being carried out.

🔗 AMK Mapping

🇺🇦⚔️🇷🇺 Situation on the Stepnogorsk direction, Zaporozhskaya Oblast:

Over the last few weeks, Ukrainian forces have been carrying out a series of counterattacks aimed at reversing the Russian progress made in the last two months.

In the east, Ukrainian forces cleared the large grey-zone in the fields north of Shcherbaky and Malye Shcherbaky and managed to infiltrate a series of positions directly north of these villages. Russian forces are conducting their own assault operations, attempting to regain control over these lost positions, and have managed to subsequently push Ukrainian infiltrators away from the northern outskirts of both settlements.

To the west, the Ukrainians cleared the large grey-zone south of Novoyakovlevka and recaptured the village of Pavlovka. From here, they managed to regain control over a series of strongpoints along the northern edge of a gulley further south, where they are now engaged in fierce fighting with Russian soldiers who are attempting to counterattack. Ukrainian forces also cleared Lukyanovskoe from earlier Russian infiltrations.

Further west, both sides are carrying out assault operations and deep infiltrations, resulting in a significant expansion of the grey-zone in both directions. Ukrainian forces are infiltrating from the area of the solar farm towards the northern outskirts of Kamenskoe and the southern micro-district of Stepnogorsk where they are attempting to take up new positions. Russian forces are continuing their infiltrations into the northern part of Stepnogorsk, the fields southwest of Magdalinovka, and the area of the solar farm; and are engaged in fierce fighting for the remaining Ukrainian positions south of the Sukhoi River in the Plavni area.

🔗 AMK Mapping