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🇯🇵 BoJ to 1% but crypto didn’t care this time. Here’s why:
The Bank of Japan hiked 25bp to 1.0% today, the highest since September 1995.
After this, Nikkei punched through 70,000 for the first time ever, USD/JPY held above 160, and BTC barely flinched at ~$66k.
In August 2024, a same-sized surprise hike dragged BTC from $65k to $50k in a week.
Four reasons the playbook broke:
1. The hike was already priced in. Polymarket sat at 98–99% pre-meeting.
2. Carry is structurally smaller. The fast hedge-fund leg blew up in 2024, with net JPY shorts collapsing from ~180k to flat in 5 weeks. Today’s 145k shorts are extreme but hedged carry has been negative since mid-2022.
3. BTC is already low. 50% off October highs, $4.4B of ETF outflows over 13 sessions cleared the leverage.
4. Real rates remain deeply negative. The carry isn’t dead, it’s just no longer the marginal driver of BTC.
News | Markets | YouTube
The Bank of Japan hiked 25bp to 1.0% today, the highest since September 1995.
After this, Nikkei punched through 70,000 for the first time ever, USD/JPY held above 160, and BTC barely flinched at ~$66k.
In August 2024, a same-sized surprise hike dragged BTC from $65k to $50k in a week.
Four reasons the playbook broke:
1. The hike was already priced in. Polymarket sat at 98–99% pre-meeting.
2. Carry is structurally smaller. The fast hedge-fund leg blew up in 2024, with net JPY shorts collapsing from ~180k to flat in 5 weeks. Today’s 145k shorts are extreme but hedged carry has been negative since mid-2022.
3. BTC is already low. 50% off October highs, $4.4B of ETF outflows over 13 sessions cleared the leverage.
4. Real rates remain deeply negative. The carry isn’t dead, it’s just no longer the marginal driver of BTC.
News | Markets | YouTube
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Media is too big
VIEW IN TELEGRAM
“I think Saylor is a maniac.”
AltcoinDaily’s Austin Arnold weighs in on Michael Saylor, Bitcoin, and where the market goes next.
Full interview drops in one hour.
News | Markets | YouTube
AltcoinDaily’s Austin Arnold weighs in on Michael Saylor, Bitcoin, and where the market goes next.
Full interview drops in one hour.
News | Markets | YouTube
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🚨 UPDATE: The U.S. will allow Iran to immediately resume oil sales and waive banking, transport, and insurance sanctions as part of the Trump-Iran peace deal, according to WSJ.
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🎥 WATCH: "90% of this crypto market will not come back."
AltcoinDaily's Austin Arnold shares his outlook on the crypto market.
https://youtu.be/6Qjq6AKqQOA?si=AShFgtlX4fEL7YQ0
News | Markets | YouTube
AltcoinDaily's Austin Arnold shares his outlook on the crypto market.
https://youtu.be/6Qjq6AKqQOA?si=AShFgtlX4fEL7YQ0
News | Markets | YouTube
YouTube
Has Bitcoin Already Bottomed? Here's the Signal To Watch | Altcoin Daily Interview
Is Bitcoin already forming a bottom? Austin Arnold from Altcoin Daily shares why he believes the 200-week moving average remains one of the strongest signals in crypto, why Michael Saylor's Bitcoin strategy is misunderstood, and how SpaceX IPO liquidity could…
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