The probability of a Federal Reserve interest rate increase by September is escalating, according to CME Fedwatch data. This shift follows renewed geopolitical tensions between the United States and Iran, which have prompted market reassessments. Recent reports indicate that the U.S. has suspended military strikes on Iran to prioritize diplomatic negotiations. Concurrently, rising gas prices and mounting inflation expectations are contributing to increased pressure on monetary policy decisions. Additionally, the strategic petroleum reserves of the United States are at critically low levels, further complicating the economic landscape.

📣 Fidelity's long-term Bitcoin model continues to point toward an accumulation zone

Fidelity has been tracking this valuation model since 2015, and at around $60,000, Bitcoin is approaching a historical support area that has previously marked attractive accumulation levels.

Unlike social media predictions or anonymous market calls, this is based on a long-term mathematical framework developed by one of the world's largest asset managers.

Of course, no model can predict the future with certainty, but if history rhymes, Bitcoin may be trading near a zone where long-term investors have historically found value.

Russian Market Dynamics Signal Heightened Geopolitical Risks and Policy Shifts

Recent developments in the Russian financial markets underscore intensifying geopolitical tensions with Ukraine, alongside a shift towards more hawkish monetary policies by the Central Bank. Concurrently, there is increasing speculation regarding the imposition of new sanctions by the European Union and potentially the United States. These factors are presently the predominant drivers of market sentiment.

Despite the possibility of unforeseen positive developments, the IMOEX index has experienced an 18-week consecutive decline. Market analysts increasingly anticipate a reversion to levels observed in February 2022, although brief rebounds remain uncertain amidst ongoing volatility.

Recent developments in the Black Sea region have prompted a significant increase in global wheat prices. Last Friday, market analysts observed a surge driven by disruptions to shipping logistics within export corridors, amidst escalating maritime tensions between Russia and Ukraine. As detailed by Bloomberg, reports indicate that Russian authorities have accused Ukraine of attacking four vessels in the Azov Sea overnight, further escalating geopolitical tensions that threaten to destabilize supply chains in the region. This incident underscores the vulnerability of commodity markets to geopolitical conflicts and highlights the importance of resilient logistics planning in international trade.

Trading volume for cocoa futures on the Moscow Exchange increased ninefold year-on-year in June, according to Boris Blokhin in an interview with TASS.

Weekly charts show you where smart money flows.

Daily charts confirm the direction.

Most traders ignore both and stare at the 1 minute chart all day.

Zoom out and trade what actually matters.

Bitcoin surpasses $64,000 amid recent market activity. A study indicates that fluctuations in the cryptocurrency's value are correlated with President Trump’s decisions regarding Iran. The analysis suggests that when Trump refrains from military action against Iran, Bitcoin's price tends to increase; conversely, potential strikes are associated with declines in the digital asset's value.

#BTC DOMINANCE ANALYSIS

BTC.D is facing rejection from the resistance trendline of the triangle while holding above the Ichimoku cloud acting as support.

A breakdown below the cloud would signal downside momentum, while a confirmed breakout or breakdown will determine the next directional move.

It’s important to note that BTC Dominance often shares an inverse relationship with the altcoin market cap.

Forget the supercars and mansions.

Most people just want to pay the bills, have freedom, and live a low stress life.

That's real.

With a solid, consistent trading plan that's absolutely doable.

NASDAQ FALLS 1.9% TODAY SO FAR

Price highly probable to attack Sellside Liquidity (Old Low) but still consolidating in a range like I said was expected to happen last week. This is Summer stock market price action to a T and happened exactly the same last year. Nothing to worry about for long term investors. Like I said this trading environment is best for day traders / scalpers.

Looking at S&P500 you can see it's highly unlikely to attack it's Old Low like NQ is doing. I am anticipating a SMT divergence between the two. Meaning SPX will create a higher low while NQ creates a lower low. Meaning that SPX is the stronger of the two and undergoing accumulation by smart money.

Bull run extremely likely to continue when September hits. Nothing to worry about for long term investors but if you're in highly volatile stocks like memory that's something you have to stomach. If I were invested I would not be worried about a crash or 'AI bubble'.

Most traders quit right before the curve flips.

They lose for years then walk away one week before the breakthrough.

The profits were always coming.

They just ran out of patience.

Survival is the only skill that matters in this game.

I'm still bullish.

First rule of learning how to trade while being on social media:

Stop comparing yourself to others.

Their trades and profits won't progress your skills.

Focus on your own path.

Everyone's journey is completely unique.

DXY DAILY CHART

Learn to read the DXY and you unlock every market.

Long the Euro.

Short the Argentinian Peso.