"Martin Luther"
A few years ago I was having a heated argument with the pastor at my church. I had been formally exposing the heresies being taught from the pulpit and showing graphs of the resulting declining membership and attendance to our church leadership.
When they wouldn't listen, I started posting on social media.
The pastor was very angry, and asked me why I was doing this. I explained that I was seeking reform in our church, and if the members were informed what was going on they would also demand reform.
After all, my denomination calls itself "reformed," and I was simply following the model of one of the key founders of the reformation movement.
And the modern version of the Wittenberg Door is social media.
The pastor exclaimed, "But you are not Martin Luther!" And stormed out of the room.
No, I am not.
But one of Luther's foundational precepts was that personal study of the Bible and an individual's Spirit-led conscience should be their guide on theological matters unless proven otherwise from Holy Scripture.
And sadly, as in Luther's day, my former church has lost its way and is apostate.
"Here I stand, I can do no other, so help me God. Amen."
A few years ago I was having a heated argument with the pastor at my church. I had been formally exposing the heresies being taught from the pulpit and showing graphs of the resulting declining membership and attendance to our church leadership.
When they wouldn't listen, I started posting on social media.
The pastor was very angry, and asked me why I was doing this. I explained that I was seeking reform in our church, and if the members were informed what was going on they would also demand reform.
After all, my denomination calls itself "reformed," and I was simply following the model of one of the key founders of the reformation movement.
And the modern version of the Wittenberg Door is social media.
The pastor exclaimed, "But you are not Martin Luther!" And stormed out of the room.
No, I am not.
But one of Luther's foundational precepts was that personal study of the Bible and an individual's Spirit-led conscience should be their guide on theological matters unless proven otherwise from Holy Scripture.
And sadly, as in Luther's day, my former church has lost its way and is apostate.
"Here I stand, I can do no other, so help me God. Amen."
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"How are things going?"
(Graph is from the CDC.)
I periodically check this graph to see how dying is going in the US.
The graph shows the total weekly number of deaths in the US from all causes.
It's obvious in the graph that there were lots of extra deaths in 2020 and 2021 (COVID related), and that things are settling back to more normal rates in 2022.
Because the number of deaths in 2020-2021 were so elevated, my working hypothesis is that unless there is a new cause we should be seeing deaths drop below normal in the near future because a bunch of folks died earlier than they would have otherwise.
We shall see. Maybe there are new causes.
(Graph is from the CDC.)
I periodically check this graph to see how dying is going in the US.
The graph shows the total weekly number of deaths in the US from all causes.
It's obvious in the graph that there were lots of extra deaths in 2020 and 2021 (COVID related), and that things are settling back to more normal rates in 2022.
Because the number of deaths in 2020-2021 were so elevated, my working hypothesis is that unless there is a new cause we should be seeing deaths drop below normal in the near future because a bunch of folks died earlier than they would have otherwise.
We shall see. Maybe there are new causes.
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"Hurricanes"
I don't follow the media reports on such matters; it is deep in propaganda and shallow in facts.
I am certain that once the dust settles there will be all sorts of commentators blaming the recent hurricane on climate change.
It's religious dogma for them.
So, I thought I would share this graph of DATA to set the record straight, in preparation for their blatherings, and to equip you to respond.
Follow the DATA!
I don't follow the media reports on such matters; it is deep in propaganda and shallow in facts.
I am certain that once the dust settles there will be all sorts of commentators blaming the recent hurricane on climate change.
It's religious dogma for them.
So, I thought I would share this graph of DATA to set the record straight, in preparation for their blatherings, and to equip you to respond.
Follow the DATA!
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“Global Warming?”
Above is an updated graph of the ENTIRE satellite record of global average atmospheric temperatures. I’ve been carefully tracking these measurements and discussion since the early 1980’s. (Scientists began these measurements in 1979 because of the myriad issues with land-based measurements. Credit: DrRoySpencer.com)
In short, the graph illustrates that the average temperature of the lower atmosphere is steadily increasing at a rate of about 1.3 C per 100 years, essentially unchanged for hundreds of years (since the ‘Little Ice Age.’)
Why is this result important? Because this is the precise portion of the atmosphere that was supposed to be dramatically affected by anthropogenic global warming. Clearly, no such effect is observed.
The scientific method requires experimentation; one makes a hypothesis as to the outcome, then does an experiment to test it. If the experiment comes out the way one predicts, then the hypothesis is confirmed and it is more likely that one knows what is going on. If a different outcome results, then the hypothesis is flawed, and the scientist needs to re-examine the fundamental assumptions and faulty understanding.
Since the temperature trend in the precise portion of the atmosphere that was supposed to be dramatically warming due to human-caused activity remains unchanged, the underlying assumptions of climate change alarmists are suspect, and need revision.
But it is difficult for scientists to revise their paradigms when their government funding relies upon propagation of their faulty explanations.
Science and politics do not play well together.
Above is an updated graph of the ENTIRE satellite record of global average atmospheric temperatures. I’ve been carefully tracking these measurements and discussion since the early 1980’s. (Scientists began these measurements in 1979 because of the myriad issues with land-based measurements. Credit: DrRoySpencer.com)
In short, the graph illustrates that the average temperature of the lower atmosphere is steadily increasing at a rate of about 1.3 C per 100 years, essentially unchanged for hundreds of years (since the ‘Little Ice Age.’)
Why is this result important? Because this is the precise portion of the atmosphere that was supposed to be dramatically affected by anthropogenic global warming. Clearly, no such effect is observed.
The scientific method requires experimentation; one makes a hypothesis as to the outcome, then does an experiment to test it. If the experiment comes out the way one predicts, then the hypothesis is confirmed and it is more likely that one knows what is going on. If a different outcome results, then the hypothesis is flawed, and the scientist needs to re-examine the fundamental assumptions and faulty understanding.
Since the temperature trend in the precise portion of the atmosphere that was supposed to be dramatically warming due to human-caused activity remains unchanged, the underlying assumptions of climate change alarmists are suspect, and need revision.
But it is difficult for scientists to revise their paradigms when their government funding relies upon propagation of their faulty explanations.
Science and politics do not play well together.
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"Sea Level Trends"
More data, to calibrate you with regards to the "Sea Level Rise Emergency."
The vast majority of the trends are labeled green and yellow, where green is less than one foot per 100 years, and yellow is less than two feet per 100 years. (Map graphic is from the NOAA website.)
For context, I also show the longer-term sea-level graph. Essentially, sea level has been steadily creeping up for thousands of years since the "big melt" following the last ice age. (Graph is from antarcticglaciers.org.)
Real data are the best antidote to alarmism.
More data, to calibrate you with regards to the "Sea Level Rise Emergency."
The vast majority of the trends are labeled green and yellow, where green is less than one foot per 100 years, and yellow is less than two feet per 100 years. (Map graphic is from the NOAA website.)
For context, I also show the longer-term sea-level graph. Essentially, sea level has been steadily creeping up for thousands of years since the "big melt" following the last ice age. (Graph is from antarcticglaciers.org.)
Real data are the best antidote to alarmism.
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Follow the Data with Dr Frank
John Lennox is one of my personal favorites. https://youtu.be/y5ZOs2em1ZA
“No Trend in Florida Hurricane Intensity”
More data to help set the record straight.
The graph I posted a couple days ago showed that if there is any trend, the *frequency* of hurricanes is dropping over several decades.
Here we see that the *intensity* of hurricanes also shows no statistically significant trend.
More data to help set the record straight.
The graph I posted a couple days ago showed that if there is any trend, the *frequency* of hurricanes is dropping over several decades.
Here we see that the *intensity* of hurricanes also shows no statistically significant trend.
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“Am I always correct?”
Certainly not.
But since I employ the most reliable methodologies to observe and analyze the world around me, I am more likely to have the correct point of view on most subjects.
A key element of this is being open-minded. I must always be willing to examine other points of view and to consider new evidence. I must acknowledge when “I don’t know,” or when the evidence is not yet definitive on a subject. It can’t be about ego.
And I must change my mind when the evidence demands it, or false understandings will undermine my degree of accuracy. Truth trumps agenda.
What are my standards and methods?
1) Humility, love, and awe.
2) Christian world view, based upon scriptural standards.
2) Scientific method and mathematics.
3) Critical reasoning and logic.
4) Life experience, and study of history. (“Wisdom”)
I actually find it exhilarating when I discover an inconsistency in my world view. It means I am going to learn something.
I voted with my 18 year old son in November, 2020. It was a fun day, voting at the polls with him for his first time. I thought the election was real.
Then, I was asked to examine the election data. I gathered and examined the evidence carefully, employed the scientific method and mathematics, and reasoned carefully.
I also prayed about it.
After twenty months of careful analysis, the evidence is clear. Our elections are deeply corrupted, but so are our legislatures and our culture. Far more than I understood only two years ago.
I shouldn’t be surprised:
“The heart is deceitful above all things, and desperately wicked: who can know it?” (Jeremiah 17)
But there is hope for us if we repent:
“But do not forget this one thing, dear friends: With the Lord a day is like a thousand years, and a thousand years are like a day. The Lord is not slow in keeping his promise, as some understand slowness. Instead he is patient with you, not wanting anyone to perish, but everyone to come to repentance.” (2 Peter 3:9-10).
Clearly, my view of our country and of my role in it has dramatically changed over the last two years.
And the adventure is exhilarating.
Certainly not.
But since I employ the most reliable methodologies to observe and analyze the world around me, I am more likely to have the correct point of view on most subjects.
A key element of this is being open-minded. I must always be willing to examine other points of view and to consider new evidence. I must acknowledge when “I don’t know,” or when the evidence is not yet definitive on a subject. It can’t be about ego.
And I must change my mind when the evidence demands it, or false understandings will undermine my degree of accuracy. Truth trumps agenda.
What are my standards and methods?
1) Humility, love, and awe.
2) Christian world view, based upon scriptural standards.
2) Scientific method and mathematics.
3) Critical reasoning and logic.
4) Life experience, and study of history. (“Wisdom”)
I actually find it exhilarating when I discover an inconsistency in my world view. It means I am going to learn something.
I voted with my 18 year old son in November, 2020. It was a fun day, voting at the polls with him for his first time. I thought the election was real.
Then, I was asked to examine the election data. I gathered and examined the evidence carefully, employed the scientific method and mathematics, and reasoned carefully.
I also prayed about it.
After twenty months of careful analysis, the evidence is clear. Our elections are deeply corrupted, but so are our legislatures and our culture. Far more than I understood only two years ago.
I shouldn’t be surprised:
“The heart is deceitful above all things, and desperately wicked: who can know it?” (Jeremiah 17)
But there is hope for us if we repent:
“But do not forget this one thing, dear friends: With the Lord a day is like a thousand years, and a thousand years are like a day. The Lord is not slow in keeping his promise, as some understand slowness. Instead he is patient with you, not wanting anyone to perish, but everyone to come to repentance.” (2 Peter 3:9-10).
Clearly, my view of our country and of my role in it has dramatically changed over the last two years.
And the adventure is exhilarating.
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“Science and politics do not play well together.”
When my son Daniel was in the 9th grade a massive oak tree fell in our neighbor’s yard. As we were helping to clean it up, we noticed hundreds of beautiful rings in the trunk.
So we took careful photographs of the tree rings and he did a science project on it, where he examined the correlation between tree ring thickness and local temperature. He did a great job on his project, and advanced to the state fair where he won several cash awards, including the American Meteorological Society Award and the Ohio Young Naturalist Award.
But he didn’t advance to the federal level because one of the two official judges graded him down on “scientific method.” So we spoke with her afterward about it.
She said that she deducted points because his temperature series (downloaded from the NOAA website for the closest airport to us) showed a slight overall *decrease* in temperature over the past 100 years. She said that this contradicted the scientific method because his data contradicted the overall global warming trend.
It’s not his fault that the data show a slight decreasing trend. The data are the data. And it was the official temperature record for our region.
So Daniel did not advance. But he did learn a valuable life-lesson:
Science and politics do not play well together.
When my son Daniel was in the 9th grade a massive oak tree fell in our neighbor’s yard. As we were helping to clean it up, we noticed hundreds of beautiful rings in the trunk.
So we took careful photographs of the tree rings and he did a science project on it, where he examined the correlation between tree ring thickness and local temperature. He did a great job on his project, and advanced to the state fair where he won several cash awards, including the American Meteorological Society Award and the Ohio Young Naturalist Award.
But he didn’t advance to the federal level because one of the two official judges graded him down on “scientific method.” So we spoke with her afterward about it.
She said that she deducted points because his temperature series (downloaded from the NOAA website for the closest airport to us) showed a slight overall *decrease* in temperature over the past 100 years. She said that this contradicted the scientific method because his data contradicted the overall global warming trend.
It’s not his fault that the data show a slight decreasing trend. The data are the data. And it was the official temperature record for our region.
So Daniel did not advance. But he did learn a valuable life-lesson:
Science and politics do not play well together.
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“Pervert Bots”
One of the problems with social media is that people can create accounts that impersonate other accounts.
I am not invulnerable.
If you see something’s that at first appears like it is me, but is trying to sell you something, is asking you for money, or is behaving in a lude manner, it is obviously not the real Dr Frank.
Please use the delete and ban functions, and report it to Telegram.
One of the problems with social media is that people can create accounts that impersonate other accounts.
I am not invulnerable.
If you see something’s that at first appears like it is me, but is trying to sell you something, is asking you for money, or is behaving in a lude manner, it is obviously not the real Dr Frank.
Please use the delete and ban functions, and report it to Telegram.
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