In our joint report with Bybit, we analyze how the crypto derivatives landscape has changed shape.

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ICYMI: Listed companies added just 5.9K $BTC over three months, versus 89K in July 2025 alone.

With spot just below their $80.5K average cost basis, corporate buyers face modest unrealized losses while providing little fresh demand.

This week's analysis

$BTC has reclaimed the True Market Mean.

That puts price back above a crucial level and back into a bullish regime.

Next major overhead is the corporate treasury cost basis around $80k and finally the ETF cost basis at $85k.

Altcoin leverage is still sitting below its risk threshold.

When the share of altcoin open interest comes within a few percent of Bitcoin's, the market is usually overheated.

That condition is not currently met, indicating a potential for alts to run further.

$BTC is climbing into a thickening liquidation shelf.

The dense cluster sits around $83k–$86k.

If reached, price could move quickly through this zone as shorts are forced to cover.

These shorts have been building for several weeks.

The current bid is strong enough that $BTC can be spent in profit without price immediately rolling over.

A sustained entity-adjusted SOPR above 1 is characteristic of a bull market.

A break back below 1 would signal that this demand is fading.

As expected, $BTC accelerated through the wall of short liquidations.

Shorts accumulated between $82k and $86k for months, however the rejection from this level was shallow.

Now these shorts are the fuel, as these traders are required to buy back BTC.

As $BTC has touched $86k, long leverage is slowly rebuilding in the options market.

Open Interest put/call ratios are moving up.

However, this still remains far from the frothy levels we saw near the BTC top.

Perp speculation also remains muted with funding below neutral.

$BTC remains in a bullish regime, according to various cost basis models and time frames.

Price is trading above both the True Market Mean and the short-term holder cost basis.

Holding above these levels is what historically defines a sustained uptrend.

The altcoin cycle signal has just flipped from bitcoin to altcoin season.

The first rally in August saw altcoins stay relatively flat while BTC moved.

However, today's rally has ignited the full breadth of the altcoin market.

$BTC has reclaimed every one of its long-term moving averages.

After around 300 days underneath them, this dynamic has now flipped.

Holding above them is what maintains a long-term uptrend.

$BTC has flashed the momentum signal that started the last two bull markets.

MVRV has crossed back above its 365-day average.

This is the same cross that we saw in 2019 and 2023 at the beginning of each bull market.

Most altcoin holders are still sitting on losses.

The median coin has less than a quarter of its supply in profit.

Global market tops tend to occur once a majority of supply across the entire market is deep in profit.

That point is still a long way off.

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Watch on X

The four-year cycle playbook many relied on has not worked for this $BTC bear.

At this point, the last three were more than twice as deep and weeks from their lows.

This one is 30% below its high and rising.

A late drop to their depth looks less likely by the week.

Bitcoin is back above the levels that held it down all year.

Our new Week On-chain report maps where it could go next.