$BTC has bounced off the ETF cost basis.

Price spent most of this year below that level, and the May rally stalled right under it.

It has now held twice as support around $81.5k. Below it, the next major level is the True Market Mean at $77.5k.

The cost basis of investors that bought the top still caps BTC's upside.

Holders who bought 1 to 2 years ago sold heavily as $BTC rallied toward $88k, where the 6 to 12 month group breaks even. Price stalled just under it.

That selling has since slowed considerably.

BTC is holding the ETF cost basis.

That line sits near $81.5K, and every daily close for the last 3 weeks has held above it. A large block of bids waits just below.

A break under this level could set off forced selling and deepen the drop.

https://x.com/i/article/2110391618755031040

$BTC is sitting on support.

However, underneath it a large cluster of long liquidations will be triggered. Another cluster sits around $75k.

Overhead, shorts liquidations have piled up above $85k all week. The lower clusters currently appear more fragile than those above.

Bitcoin moved into an early recovery in Q3, even as the Fed resumed tightening.

Our Q4 2026 Charting Crypto report with Coinbase Institutional reads the data behind it. Its outlook: constructive, with reasons for near-term caution.

Download the report: https://glassno.de/4s56RtH

Buyers kept refilling the $BTC book today.

The low timeframe view shows that the large bids that sat at $80k for the last week were filled and new large bids were placed, pushing price up systematically.

Now we see the support level under $80k weakening again.

$BTC sellers capitulated again yesterday.

Every burst of loss selling came right at a local bottom: early August, mid-August and mid-September.

Profit taking has slowed since the September high.

If the pattern holds, yesterday's selling just above $80k would mark the floor.

Weekend selling has hit altcoins hard.

As fear from equities spills into crypto, the typical altcoin is down over 5%. If the weekend closes like this it would be the largest weekend drop since April.

Since the $BTC low in June, buying Friday and selling Sunday was profitable.

Altcoin leverage is still running hot.

Prices have pulled back since leverage peaked earlier this month, yet over 40% of large caps still sit near their highest leverage of the year. In mid caps, that share is at a yearly high.

A deeper drop would put many longs at risk.

Short-term profit-taking has weighed on $BTC.

Two weeks ago we flagged short-term holders in profit sending the largest share of exchange inflows in a year. This selling has weighed on price since.

The flow has now eased back to its average yearly level.

ETF buyers came back in size yesterday.

US spot $BTC ETFs took in $663M, the most in a day since September, and all of it went into BlackRock's IBIT.

That single day erased the funds' net outflows for October. Follow-through would confirm the demand is back.

The Q4 levels for $BTC have held so far.

Last month, together with @colin_basco and the @CoinbaseInsto team we put resistance at $87K to $87.8K in our Charting Crypto report. We read the data as near-term consolidation.

Price stalled there and ranged below it ever since.

A break out of the range is likely to spark significant volatility, although another overhead supply cluster sits around $90k.

Read our full quarterly report below👇
https://twitter.com/glassnode/status/2110737242608246947