IPOs and more - by The Momentum Investing Co.
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Hi guys,

I have received 3 messages about people applying for an SME IPO and then getting stuck in lower circuits or the IPO listing at a discount. There are reasons why I dont share SME IPO analysis here. While some SME IPOs list at huge premiums, but there are risks involved.

Please understand the risks before applying for SME IPOs:

1. In good SME IPOs, the probability of allotment is generally extremely low. As low as 0.2% or less in most good IPOs.

2. They are very small in size and very illiquid. They can get stuck in circuits for days.

3. They have a much larger lot size than normal retail IPOs.

If you understand and accept such risks, only then apply for them.
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I am applying for this one, not aggressively though. The prob of allotment will be highest in big HNI (around 1/3 or 1/4), next retail and then small HNI.

The IPO is likely to be a low risk-okok reward IPO. Only apply for it if you’re ok with the risk of a small discount listing given its large size.
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Plaza Wires is a good IPO that opens this Friday but sadly it is so small that it may as well be an SME IPO. The size is just 71 crores. Isse zyada toh twitter ke option traders ek din me profit kama lete hain.
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Allotment for JSW Infra came out last night.

You may check at the below link

https://ris.kfintech.com/ipostatus/

I had applied from 3 accounts in the big HNI category and got allotment in 1.
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JSW infra lists today at 10 AM
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Decent listing gains
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Valiant Labs IPO closes today. I am not a big fan of this one.
Can list at a small premium, but the fundamentals and GMP both are pretty average.
I am applying for Plaza Wires though allotment prob in Plaza is extremely low.
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Extremely high subscription in Plaza Wires. Making it a near impossible allotment.
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Welcome back everyone

After a short break, IPOs are back
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IRM Energy Analysis

IRM Energy is a natural gas distribution company. No not the natural gas that you’re thinking about. PNG and CNG.

Size of the IPO

545 Crores (all of it new issue)
The money raised will be used to fund capex, repay some borrowings and other general purposes.


Lot sizes and quotas

Retail - 29 shares (35% quota)
Small HNI - 1303 shares
Big HNI - 2607 shares

Last date to apply

20th October 2023
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Financials

Revenue grew from 166 crores to 1045 crores between 2020 and 2023. Which is a whopping CAGR. Profits however were a little volatile with profits of 21 crores in FY20, 35 crores in FY21, 128 crores in FY22 (all good till here), but profits fell to 63 crores in FY23. Return on equity for the company stood at 18% which is less than all of its peers - Gujarat Gas, Indraprastha Gas, Mahanagar Gas, ATGL.
The P/E ratio of 24x is higher than all of its peers, except for ATGL’s (which has a P/E ratio of 120 lol)
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Source: IPOji
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Overall financials are good but the latest year’s profit degrowth was a bummer.

Demand in the grey market

The share has a decent, but not great demand in the grey market.

The latest grey market premium is ranging between 12-14% per share.

Conclusion

I would be applying for the IPO (though I ll check at 12 PM on 20th to see if there is enough institutional demand and make the final decision). However, I would not be applying aggressively from all accounts.
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Blue Jet Healthcare IPO opened today and will close on Friday. However, due to market volatility, it would be prudent to take the decision to apply or not to apply on Friday around noon. I will share my analysis of the IPO tomorrow night
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Market is very volatile. IRM energy listef at a small discount. Jet Blue health’s demand in the grey market fell significantly. It’s GMP fell from 63 to 10 in 2 days.

I would be avoiding applying for IPOs till the market settles down or if there is a great IPO.
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Analysis of Cello World coming up
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What does the company do?

Makes pens and other stationery. The cello pens we used to love as students. It also makes utensils and furniture. Quite diversified.

Dates: The IPO closes tomorrow

Size of the issue: a whopping 1,900 crores. Which means prob of allotment would be high. However, the IPO is purely offer for sale.

Lot sizes

Retail - 23 shares (35% reserved)
Small HNI - 322 shares
Big HNI - 1564 shares
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Financials

Both revenue and profits have grown at a steady pace over the past few years.

Revenue grew at a CAGR of 30% p.a and profits grew at 31% p.a

Return on equity stood at 23%
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