Probability of allotment would be highest in bHNI and retail

Lowest in sHNI

Looks like sadly this theory came true. Yatharth might have a not so flattish listing. Pre open indicates a listing premium of just 2%.

Let’s see how it opens.

Went up immediately post listing. I sold half at a 10% gain. Holding the rest with the trend.

Probability of allotment

Retail and bHNI - 1/10
sHNI - 1/40

Employees - 1/5.8

This is likely to have an amazing listing

Pray for allotment 🤘

Concord Biotech IPO Analysis

What does the company do?
It is an API company (computer wala nahi, pharma wala - Active Pharmaceutical Ingredients)

About the issue

Size - 1551 crores (that’s 3 times the average IPO size that we see). Makes it pretty large

Date: the IPO closes tomorrow

Breakdown
Fresh issue: 0
Offer for sale: 1551 crores
This is not a great thing esp for longer term growth. A complete offer for sale indicates that the company is not looking to raise money for growth opportunities, rather it is going to use the IPO to give an exit to existing investors.

Price band: 705-741 per share

Quota

Retail: 35%
SHNI: 5%
BHNI: 10%

Lot sizes
Retail: 20 shares
SHNI: 280 shares
BHNI: 1360 shares

Financials

Revenue has grown from 630 crores in FY21 to 888 crores in FY23 (not bad, but not amazing).
Profit has grown from 235 crores to just 240 crores (not great).

P/E ratio of 32x means it is neither too high nor too low. Very similarly priced like its peers (Divis, Laurus).

Most important - demand in the grey market

The IPO has decent demand in the grey market. Nothing amazing though.

The latest GMP is around 20%.

Conclusion

It is not a bad IPO but not an amazing one either.

Decent chance of listing at an ok ok premium, but a small chance of flat to slightly negative listing if the market trend becomes weak or demand in the grey market dwindles.

I would be applying for it but not aggressively.

Those who are ok with a slight risk of flat to negative listing may consider applying. Those who are not should avoid. Probability of allotment would be pretty decent.

Update: The GMP has seen a decline from 20% to 17% overnight.

2 upcoming IPOs - Balaji Speciality and Aeroflex Industries have their parent companies listed. Balaji Amines and SAT industries, respectively.

This means that these IPOs would have shareholder quota.

If you hold even a single share of the parent companies on the date of filing of Red Herring Prospectus (not yet filed), you would be eligible for that quota.

However, do note that until the RHP is filed, it wont be known if the IPO is good or not.

Still if you wish to increase your chances of allotment, you may consider purchasing 1 share each of these parent companies (needless to say, not an investment advice :p)

Meanwhile, SBFC’s allotment would be out tonight.

All the best!!

You may check it on the below link

https://ris.kfintech.com/ipostatus/

No allotment news till now. If anyone is staying up in suspense, I would suggest get your beauty sleep. Your staying up won’t change the result :p

Allotment is out.

All the best!

I got 1 lot out of 8 applications.