Probability of allotment (approximate)

Retail - 1/15
Small HNI - 1/46
Big HNI - 1/11

The GMP for a lot of IPOs has gone through the roof.

Ladies and gentlemen, what you are witnessing right now is called irrational exuberance or a bubble.

Don’t know when will it burst.

Most likely it will take a PayTM type IPO to burst the bubble. Enjoy it while it lasts.

Normally a bubble has 5 stages

1. Displacement - this is where investors get enamoured by a new thing. It could be a new technology, a new development, a new law or anything that didnt exist earlier or people didnt know about it.

2. Boom - this is where asset prices go through the roof

3. Euphoria - Here, the investors start borrowing money to invest. Caution is thrown to the wind. If you see investors borrowing money to apply for IPOs. That will be this stage

4. Profit taking - this would be a situation where something like a paytm comes in and makes investors lose money. This will happen because people would be blinded by the prospect of all IPOs listing at a premium and the despair of not getting allotment in good ones, they will apply for anything that comes out.

5. Panic: this will happen when most investors quit applying for IPOs after they didnt get the good ones but got the bad one. And once again a new wave would start here.


A bubble can last for months or even years.

DOMS allotment out

Got 1 out of 8 applications

Check at - https://linkintime.co.in/mipo/ipoallotment.html

India Shelter should be out in a few hours

Inox would be out either by late tonight or early morning tomorrow

6 IPOs open right now 🤯🤯🤯

Review coming up shortly

Last day to apply for 3 of those is tomorrow, while the other 3 close on Thursday.

Another one will open tomorrow.

And one more will open on Thursday.

All in all 8 mainboard IPOs this week.

India Shelter allotment is now live on Kfintech's website.

You may check the status at https://evault.kfintech.com/ipostatus/

I got allotment in 2 out of 8 applications in this one. Let's see how Inox goes tonight.

Motisons Jewellers IPO Review


Business-Jewellery retailer
Price band- 52 to 55 per share
Size of the issue- 151 Crores
Breakdown- 151 Crores Offer for sale
Retail quota- 35%

Lot sizes
Retail 250 shares
SHNI 3750 shares
BHNI 18250 shares

FInancials

Impressive financials.

However, there have been reports that the promoters have a shady record as far as following the law goes

Demand

Crazy demand in the grey market with a GMP of nearly 200%. There are some reports of the promoters not having the cleanest image out there, but more than the narrative, the numbers matter. Also, the subscription numbers are crazy, partly due to the high GMP and partly due to the small size of the issue.

Verdict

While the IPO is great to capture listing gains, but due to its small size, allotment will be extremely tough in all categories.
I personally would avoid this and prefer other good IPOs that have a decent chance of allotment

Only apply for this if you have spare money because the probability of allotment would be extremely low.

Allotment for Inox is out.

I got 0 out of 8 applications in this 😅

The allotment can be checked on

https://evault.kfintech.com/ipostatus/

Muthoot Microfinance review

About the company: A microfinance company providing small loans in rural areas

IPO dates: Applications close today

Price band: 277 to 291 per share

Size of the issue: 960 Crores (760 Crores fresh issue, rest offer for sale)

Retail quota: 35%

Lot sizes
Retail 51 shares
SHNI 714 shares
BHNI 3468 shares

Financials of Muthoot Microfin. Clearly impressive profit growth over the past 3 years. Valuations seem fair and return on equity is at par with competitors.

Demand in the grey market and IPO market

While there has been a decent demand for the IPO w.r.t the subscription numbers on day 2. The GMP has been falling and now stands at 12-14%.

Verdict

Not a bad IPO by any standards, but the GMP is much lower than some other IPOs that are open right now. And since I do not have unlimited money, I'll pass on this one too and go for other IPOs.

Will share other reviews soon

But TLDR. Here’s my plan of action

I would apply for
Happy Forgings,
Mufti
Azad Engineering

Then I would hope that at least one of these frees up my money by Monday and apply for Innova Captab on Monday

These 4 are the best options available in terms of probability and potential returns

Motisons Jewellers has a crazy high GMP but getting allotment in it would be a herculean task.

Interesting point raised by @Hrishikesh_Agarwal

Since Motisons’ allotment is expected to be out by 21st night or 22nd morning. The funds of Motisons can be used for Azad Engineering since it closes on 22nd

Upcoming IPOs ranked in terms of potential gains and probability of allotment (from highest to lowest)

In tetms of Probability of allotment (highest to lowest)

RBZ Jewellers
Happy forgings
Mufti / innova Captab
Azad Engineering

Potential gains (highest to lowest)

Azad Engineering
Happy Forgings
Mufti/Innova
RBZ jewellers

Note: These are estimates and may vary depending on multiple factors. IPO listings are subject to market risk. Please do your research and do not blindly apply for IPOs.