Tun Dato Sri Zaki father also Chief Justice ! both also Tun....
ANTIFRAGILE
: In the current regime of QE infinity & perpetual government debt creation (MMT voddoo), grand canyon wide disconnect between the underlying economy & asset prices, is gold the new asset class that is also antifragile?
“Antifragility is beyond resilience or robustness. The resilient resists shocks and stays the same; the antifragile gets better” -Taleb
Love the concept of antifragile, it takes stoicism, investing, resource & decision allocation to the snowy peaks of the highest mountains. A portfolio that is antifragile thrives, irrespective of anything – even the portfolio manager!
And yes, all our lives, lifestyles, habits, decisions… are our individual portfolios. Some are designed to compound wealth day-in, day-out… others are basically one long theta trade, bleeding day in, day out…
Still regardless of the intraweek price action on Gold (we made new highs on spot o/n at c. $1779.50), its all about where we close at the end of the wk – if you are a bull like we are on the Dragon, we need two consecutive weekly closes of spot gold above $1750.
Obviously the pesky bears will be trying to dissuade that. Let us see where the global macro winds drop the chips… again KVP’s conviction on this has no bounds… this is going to be a historic break up (sooner rather than later) & will take us to ATHs past previous c. $1920 lvls in 2011
BANK STRESS TEST:
During the GFC… bank stress tests ended up being a negative catalyst for many banks & a boon to the shorts… it was always a catch twenty two… why is your tier one ratio so low, oh wait such a high tier one ratio – what are you worried about? Etc... It was basically a...
...PROFRAGILE
regime for banks & financials in generally, did not matter what was on your balance sheet… it was a negative feedback system that accelerated in on itself. This profragile regime, situation, trade, investment, decision, action, lack of action… etc… is perhaps an even more important concept to keep in mind. I.e. taking patron tequila shots while scaling mountain side walls, literally does not have much upside. Sounds obvious, yet many of us put our lives & portfolios in profragile situations – where its just a matter of time, before you take a hit.
Early morning Asia time Friday, we will be getting US Bank Stress Test Results – its worth noting the rules have already been changed in regards to the effect of government bonds on the banks capital structure parameters. I.e. to the benefit of creating more bidders for US debt… don’t be surprised if at some point, some gov. pensions may have their mandates adjusted for owning more US duration…
CENTRAL BANKS:
Watch out for decisions out of the Philippines, Turkey & Mexico later today. First is expected to stay put at 2.75% e/p, whilst a 0.25% & 0.50% cut are expected out of the later two to 8.00% (8.25%) & then 5.00%(5.50%).
There is also some Fed speak on the board from Kaplan & Bostic, as well as ECB minutes due.
: In the current regime of QE infinity & perpetual government debt creation (MMT voddoo), grand canyon wide disconnect between the underlying economy & asset prices, is gold the new asset class that is also antifragile?
“Antifragility is beyond resilience or robustness. The resilient resists shocks and stays the same; the antifragile gets better” -Taleb
Love the concept of antifragile, it takes stoicism, investing, resource & decision allocation to the snowy peaks of the highest mountains. A portfolio that is antifragile thrives, irrespective of anything – even the portfolio manager!
And yes, all our lives, lifestyles, habits, decisions… are our individual portfolios. Some are designed to compound wealth day-in, day-out… others are basically one long theta trade, bleeding day in, day out…
Still regardless of the intraweek price action on Gold (we made new highs on spot o/n at c. $1779.50), its all about where we close at the end of the wk – if you are a bull like we are on the Dragon, we need two consecutive weekly closes of spot gold above $1750.
Obviously the pesky bears will be trying to dissuade that. Let us see where the global macro winds drop the chips… again KVP’s conviction on this has no bounds… this is going to be a historic break up (sooner rather than later) & will take us to ATHs past previous c. $1920 lvls in 2011
BANK STRESS TEST:
During the GFC… bank stress tests ended up being a negative catalyst for many banks & a boon to the shorts… it was always a catch twenty two… why is your tier one ratio so low, oh wait such a high tier one ratio – what are you worried about? Etc... It was basically a...
...PROFRAGILE
regime for banks & financials in generally, did not matter what was on your balance sheet… it was a negative feedback system that accelerated in on itself. This profragile regime, situation, trade, investment, decision, action, lack of action… etc… is perhaps an even more important concept to keep in mind. I.e. taking patron tequila shots while scaling mountain side walls, literally does not have much upside. Sounds obvious, yet many of us put our lives & portfolios in profragile situations – where its just a matter of time, before you take a hit.
Early morning Asia time Friday, we will be getting US Bank Stress Test Results – its worth noting the rules have already been changed in regards to the effect of government bonds on the banks capital structure parameters. I.e. to the benefit of creating more bidders for US debt… don’t be surprised if at some point, some gov. pensions may have their mandates adjusted for owning more US duration…
CENTRAL BANKS:
Watch out for decisions out of the Philippines, Turkey & Mexico later today. First is expected to stay put at 2.75% e/p, whilst a 0.25% & 0.50% cut are expected out of the later two to 8.00% (8.25%) & then 5.00%(5.50%).
There is also some Fed speak on the board from Kaplan & Bostic, as well as ECB minutes due.
Suicide of young trader prompts soul-searching at Robinhood
The suicide of a young trader who thought he lost hundreds of thousands of dollars on Robinhood has intensified scrutiny of the online platform popular with millennials new to investing.
Alexander Kearns took his life on June 12 after his Robinhood account showed a negative balance of $730,000 based on options trades.
"The emotional stress from the exposure caused him to take his own life," tweeted Bill Brewster, a cousin by marriage of the 20-year-old Kearns and a financial analyst based in Chicago.
Kearns' family believes Robinhood's platform confused Alexander and did a poor job of explaining and accounting for complex financial trades, leading him to misinterpret the figures.
They think his account actually had a positive balance, but Robinhood has declined to release details because of privacy.
In a blog post, Robinhood cofounders Vlad Tenev and Baiju Bhatt said they were "personally devastated by this tragedy" and promised to revise the requirements for investing in options, bolster the platform's educational resources and improve the user interface.
Tenev and Bhatt also announced a $250,000 donation to the American Foundation for Suicide Prevention.
- Explosions of confetti -
Robinhood was launched in 2013 with the stated goal of democratizing access to Wall Street trading and eliminating commissions on trades of stocks, options and exchange-traded funds.
The platform also permits traders to buy fractions of shares of more expensively-priced companies and grants free stock to new customers.
The company is among a spate of "fin tech" upstarts that are remaking money and finance with smartphone-oriented technology. Robinhood raised $280 million in fresh capital in May.
Users are humored by features like an explosion of virtual confetti after each transaction, and can keep lists of favored stocks to follow.
In early May, Robinhood reported accounts on the platform had reached 13 million following a surge in new customers as a result of lockdowns due to the coronavirus.
That was a much bigger increase in new customers compared with Charles Schwab, TD Ameritrade and E*TRADE, even if the older firms had much higher-valued accounts.
Many of the new users of Robinhood are day traders attracted to penny stocks -- a category shunned by big-time investors.
However a number of the fledgling traders have actually done well this year, according to an analysis by Societe Generale of trades since the beginning of the year.
"Their timing back into the market looks impeccable with a significant pick-up in holdings as equity markets bottomed in mid-March," the French bank said in a recent note.
- Too easy? -
But there were questions about Robinhood even before the Kearns tragedy.
The platform's revenues are based on subscriptions to its premium service, as well as payments from market makers for routing their orders.
The latter is often a source of compensation for brokerages, but it is controversial because of its opacity and would seem to contradict Robinhood's commitment to transparency.
The platform is vulnerable to technology outages and has also had some stumbles as it has introduced new products such as a high-yield savings account.
But the biggest criticism has been over the lack of protections for retail investors.
"Robinhood makes it far too easy for young, inexperienced, low-account balance investors to get into risky investing behaviors that they are neither educated enough nor experienced enough to engage in," said Tara Falcone, a certified financial planner and the founder of ReisUP, a financial literacy service.
Robinhood permitted investments in cryptocurrencies likes bitcoin without warning of the risks involved, Falcone said, and though the company's statements since Kearns' suicide suggest progress, it needs to go much further.
"Democratizing access to investing is a wonderful mission and they've clearly done a tremendous job in doing so," she said.
The suicide of a young trader who thought he lost hundreds of thousands of dollars on Robinhood has intensified scrutiny of the online platform popular with millennials new to investing.
Alexander Kearns took his life on June 12 after his Robinhood account showed a negative balance of $730,000 based on options trades.
"The emotional stress from the exposure caused him to take his own life," tweeted Bill Brewster, a cousin by marriage of the 20-year-old Kearns and a financial analyst based in Chicago.
Kearns' family believes Robinhood's platform confused Alexander and did a poor job of explaining and accounting for complex financial trades, leading him to misinterpret the figures.
They think his account actually had a positive balance, but Robinhood has declined to release details because of privacy.
In a blog post, Robinhood cofounders Vlad Tenev and Baiju Bhatt said they were "personally devastated by this tragedy" and promised to revise the requirements for investing in options, bolster the platform's educational resources and improve the user interface.
Tenev and Bhatt also announced a $250,000 donation to the American Foundation for Suicide Prevention.
- Explosions of confetti -
Robinhood was launched in 2013 with the stated goal of democratizing access to Wall Street trading and eliminating commissions on trades of stocks, options and exchange-traded funds.
The platform also permits traders to buy fractions of shares of more expensively-priced companies and grants free stock to new customers.
The company is among a spate of "fin tech" upstarts that are remaking money and finance with smartphone-oriented technology. Robinhood raised $280 million in fresh capital in May.
Users are humored by features like an explosion of virtual confetti after each transaction, and can keep lists of favored stocks to follow.
In early May, Robinhood reported accounts on the platform had reached 13 million following a surge in new customers as a result of lockdowns due to the coronavirus.
That was a much bigger increase in new customers compared with Charles Schwab, TD Ameritrade and E*TRADE, even if the older firms had much higher-valued accounts.
Many of the new users of Robinhood are day traders attracted to penny stocks -- a category shunned by big-time investors.
However a number of the fledgling traders have actually done well this year, according to an analysis by Societe Generale of trades since the beginning of the year.
"Their timing back into the market looks impeccable with a significant pick-up in holdings as equity markets bottomed in mid-March," the French bank said in a recent note.
- Too easy? -
But there were questions about Robinhood even before the Kearns tragedy.
The platform's revenues are based on subscriptions to its premium service, as well as payments from market makers for routing their orders.
The latter is often a source of compensation for brokerages, but it is controversial because of its opacity and would seem to contradict Robinhood's commitment to transparency.
The platform is vulnerable to technology outages and has also had some stumbles as it has introduced new products such as a high-yield savings account.
But the biggest criticism has been over the lack of protections for retail investors.
"Robinhood makes it far too easy for young, inexperienced, low-account balance investors to get into risky investing behaviors that they are neither educated enough nor experienced enough to engage in," said Tara Falcone, a certified financial planner and the founder of ReisUP, a financial literacy service.
Robinhood permitted investments in cryptocurrencies likes bitcoin without warning of the risks involved, Falcone said, and though the company's statements since Kearns' suicide suggest progress, it needs to go much further.
"Democratizing access to investing is a wonderful mission and they've clearly done a tremendous job in doing so," she said.
"But with that type of freedom comes a lot of responsibility. Some of that is on the shoulders of the individuals engaging in these acts, but I also believe that Robinhood has a responsibility to their stakeholders."