Middle East Spectator — MES
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News & Analysis on Middle East

Independent, but not unbiased, striving for a multipolar world. Mainly focused on Iran & Resistance Axis.

Introduction: https://t.me/Middle_East_Spectator/4

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— 🇮🇷 Clown Prince Reza Pahlavi’s Chief of Staff:

‘The fight continues. Prince Reza Pahlavi will lead Iran to freedom.’

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— 🇮🇷/🇮🇷 Full statement by Hezbollah on the MoU (1/2):

‘Hezbollah congratulates the Islamic Republic of Iran, its leadership, and its people, on the great achievement of reaching a Memorandum of Understanding with the United States of America, which has led to a comprehensive ceasefire on all fronts, including Lebanon.

This great achievement is the fruit of the legendary steadfastness, exceptional resilience, and immense sacrifices made by the dear Iranian people and their wise leadership, who have adhered to the national choices that preserved their dignity, sovereignty, and independence.

On this momentous occasion, Hezbollah extends its greetings and appreciation to His Eminence the Supreme Leader of the Islamic Revolution, Imam Sayyed Mojtaba Khamenei (may God protect him), who has guided this phase with unparalleled wisdom, courage, and insight, to the President and government of Iran, and to the valiant armed forces of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, the Army, and the brotherly Iranian people.

Hezbollah expresses its profound gratitude for their unwavering support to Lebanon, its people, and its resistance, and for their insistence that Lebanon be present in any agreement leading to a cessation of hostilities and the preservation of its rights. For this, they have borne the heavy burdens of siege and aggression, thus reaffirming that the Islamic Republic is truly a strong and loyal ally and supporter.

Hezbollah also extends its greetings to all the countries that participated, contributed, assisted, and supported the efforts to remove obstacles in order to achieve this agreement. Hezbollah emphasizes that Lebanon must make the best use of this regional and international support to achieve Lebanese sovereignty and liberate its lands within the framework of national unity.

We extend our deepest respect and admiration to the honorable, dignified, and resilient people of the resistance, and to the displaced families, for their patience, endurance, and steadfastness. We salute their sacrifices and all they have offered in the face of this barbaric aggression. They have truly proven themselves to be a proud people, the most honorable of all, as described by the Master of the Martyrs of the Nation, His Eminence Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah.

We also salute the leadership of the resistance and its valiant, heroic fighters, the nation's impregnable shield and strong bulwark, who sacrificed their pure blood and souls for the glory of their homeland and the dignity of their people. They waged heroic battles where the Israeli enemy witnessed some of their might and tasted the bitterness of defeat.

We affirm that what has been achieved is a prelude to completing the liberation of our land, the return of our prisoners to their homeland and families, the return of all residents, especially those in the frontline villages, to their homes, and the reconstruction of what the aggression has destroyed. We call upon our steadfast people to exercise patience and await instructions from the relevant authorities regarding their safe return to their villages and towns, for their own safety and to avoid any dangers that may arise from potential Israeli violations.

The Israeli enemy must understand that there will be no return to the pre-March 2ns status quo, and that the resistance, which has been and remains the vigilant guardian of the homeland and its people, will not accept any aggression that violates its sovereignty or sheds the blood of its people. The resistance will remain committed to Lebanon's legitimate and unwavering right to defend its land, its people, and its sovereignty until a complete withdrawal is achieved and the prisoners are returned.’

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— 🇮🇷/🇮🇷 Full Hezbollah statement on the MoU (2/2):

‘Therefore, we emphasize that this stage requires the government and all Lebanese political forces to return to a unified national stance in order to achieve the goals upon which the Lebanese people agree, goals that embody Lebanon's best interests and preserve its sovereignty, strength, and resilience in the face of Israeli ambitions.

It is wise to review all the calculations and paths taken by the authorities, to benefit from this experience and the experiences that preceded it in our homeland Lebanon, to move away from illusions and losing bets, and to acknowledge that a unified Lebanese position and reliance on true friends is the best way to preserve national interests.’

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—❗️🇺🇸/🇮🇷 Iran’s Foreign Ministry Spokesman, Ismael Baqaei:

– According to the MoU, Iran will be responsible for managing passage through the Strait of Hormuz, in coordination with Oman.

– Iran is not seeking to impose tolls. However, in return for navigation services, environmental protection, insurances and other maritime services, Iran will collect the necessary fees.

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— 🇺🇸/🇮🇷/🇮🇱/🇱🇧 Response by Iran’s Foreign Ministry to Israel’s claim they will not withdraw from Lebanon:

– We know that Israel never takes any action without consultation and direct coordination with America.

– Therefore, we hold America directly responsible if it fails to force Israel to submit to its obligations as part of the MoU, with necessary consequences.

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Middle East Spectator — MES
—❗️🇺🇸/🇮🇷 Iran’s Foreign Ministry Spokesman, Ismael Baqaei: – According to the MoU, Iran will be responsible for managing passage through the Strait of Hormuz, in coordination with Oman. – Iran is not seeking to impose tolls. However, in return for navigation…
— 🇺🇸/🇮🇷 NOTE: The concept of ‘maritime services’ fees in the Strait of Hormuz would function similarly to Turkey’s fees in the Bosphorus Strait

Turkey charges vessels transiting the Bosphorus by ‘net tonnage’ (NT), approximately $5.83 per NT.

In the Bosphorus, that equates to about ~$220 million in annual revenue for Turkey. But the average tonnage of ships crossing the Bosphorus Strait is much smaller than those crossing the Strait of Hormuz, and the amount of crossings is also much lower.

Let’s assume that Iran would impose approximately the same amount of maritime fees in the Strait of Hormuz, but adjusted for traffic and tonnage.

With an average tonnage per ship of 80,000-100,000 NT in the Strait of Hormuz, and average crossing of between 35,000 and 40,000 vessels per year:

Iran would make approximately $16-$20 Billion dollars annually just from maritime fees, even without tolls. If Iran becomes the primary insurance provider, that would be billions more.

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— 🇺🇸/🇮🇷/🇱🇧 NEW: Without thanking Iran, Lebanese Prime Minister Nawaf Salam accepts the ceasefire agreement in Lebanon as part of the Iran-U.S. Memorandum of Understanding and says the Lebanese government will work to ensure that Israel abides by withdrawing from Lebanese territory

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— For the Strait of Hormuz, there is one issue.

How will Iran enforce its control if the credible threat of military force is gone?

Vessels can just take the Omani route and not coordinate with Iran at all.

Let’s see how Iran solves this.
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🇺🇸🇮🇷⚡️ — Vice President JD Vance on Iran:
We are seeing both Iranian hardliners and political leaders saying, “Our relationship with the U.S. over the past 47 years has been a mistake. Let's turn over a new leaf.”
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Tabz - Live News
🇺🇸🇮🇷⚡️ — Vice President JD Vance on Iran: We are seeing both Iranian hardliners and political leaders saying, “Our relationship with the U.S. over the past 47 years has been a mistake. Let's turn over a new leaf.”
J.D. Vance acting like Iran signed the Abraham Accords or something lol

The only thing that happened is ‘we promise not to bomb the shit out of you, and you promise not to bomb the shit out of us, do we have a deal?’
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🇺🇸🇮🇷⚡️ — CBS: The Iranians are saying they're gonna have access to a $300 billion reconstruction fund. True or false?

JD Vance: That's the sort of things they could have access to, so long as they honor their end of the obligation.
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— 🇺🇸/🇮🇷 NEW: Iran and the U.S. have both already signed the MoU electronically, with J.D. Vance signing for the Americans and Qalibaf signing for the Iranian side

However, a ‘formal signing ceremony’ will still take place on Friday in Geneva, according to a senior U.S. official – CNN

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Middle East Spectator — MES
— 🇺🇸/🇮🇷 NEW: Iran and the U.S. have both already signed the MoU electronically, with J.D. Vance signing for the Americans and Qalibaf signing for the Iranian side However, a ‘formal signing ceremony’ will still take place on Friday in Geneva, according to…
— If the MoU is already signed electronically, why should there be another signing ceremony on Friday?

Why give a photo-op to Trump / Vance so they can present an image of victory? I don’t understand this.

It almost makes me think that the U.S. specifically insisted on an in-person signing as part of the MoU conditions. PR is very important to them.

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—❗️🇮🇱/🇮🇷 NEW: Hezbollah launched a barrage of rockets and an ATGM at a column of Israeli tanks that tried to advance to Kfar Tebnit in violation of the ceasefire

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— 🇮🇱/🇱🇧/🇮🇷 NEW: A U.S. official also told Reuters that withdrawal from Lebanon is not part of the MoU, confirming the statement by Israel

If it isn’t, then why did Iranian officials say it is? And what was that alleged ‘last minute concession’ given to prevent an attack on Israel?

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For me, nothing in this deal is more important than Lebanon.

I don’t care about the money or sanctions relief or even Hormuz if there’s no peace in Lebanon.
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What could be is that Iran and the U.S. did agree on an Israeli withdrawal from Lebanon, but that Israel is allowed to present it as a separate agremeent with the Lebanese government, having Aoun announce it in a week or two, so that Iran doesn’t get any credit.
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— 🇺🇸/🇮🇷 Reporter: ‘Will Iran be allow to produce ballistic missiles with no limitation?’

President Trump: ‘It’s a great deal. They will never have a nuclear weapon.’

Reporter: ‘What about missiles?’

President Trump: ‘You’re with the fake news. You’re fake. You’re a horrible person.’

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—❗️🇮🇱/🇮🇷 Hezbollah in its first military statement since the ceasefire:

‘In defense of Lebanon, and based on the legitimate right to resist occupation and liberate the land, and in response to the Israeli enemy's violation of the ceasefire:

After monitoring an Israeli force consisting of a bulldozer and two Merkava tanks advancing from Hamat Arnon, the checkpoint near the border in the outskirts of Kafr Tannin, fighters of the Islamic Resistance attacked them with ATGMs and Ababil-1000 guided drones, forcing them to retreat.


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Netanyahu is giving a speech, so far he is detailing all of Israel’s ‘achievements’ (from Nasrallah’s killing to invading Syria etc.), probably preparing to announce an end to the war.
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