Middle East Spectator — MES
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News & Analysis on Middle East

Independent, but not unbiased, striving for a multipolar world. Mainly focused on Iran & Resistance Axis.

Introduction: https://t.me/Middle_East_Spectator/4

Owner and contact for ads: @Elias_MES

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—❗️🇺🇸/🇮🇷 BREAKING: The White House has released the full text of the 14-point MoU:

1. The U.S. and Iran and their allies in the current war declare the immediate and permanent termination of military operations on all fronts, including in Lebanon, and undertake from now on not to initiate any war or any military operation against each other, and to refrain from the threat or use of force against each other, and ensuring the territorial integrity and sovereignty of Lebanon.

2. The U.S. and Iran undertake to respect each other's sovereignty and territorial integrity and to refrain from interfering in each other's internal affairs.

3. The U.S. and Iran commit to negotiating and achieving the final deal in maximum of 60 days, extendable with mutual consent.

4. Immediately upon the signing, the U.S. will begin the removal of its naval blockade and any disturbances or impediments against the Islamic Republic of Iran, and will fully end the naval blockade within 30 days. During this period, the traffic of vessels will be in proportion to the numbers of pre-war traffic being restored by Iran. The U.S. further undertakes to remove its forces from the proximity of Iran within 30 days atter the final deal.

5. Upon the signing of this MoU, Iran will make arrangements using its best efforts for the safe passage of commercial vessels with no charge for 60 days from the Persian Gulf to the Sea of Oman, and vice versa. The traffic of commercial vessels will immediately start, in considering the need for removing the technical and military obstacles and demining by the Islamic Republic of Iran, within 30 days. Iran will conduct a dialogue with the Oman to define the future administration and maritime services in the Strait of Hormuz.

6. The U.S. undertakes with its regional partners to develop a definitive, mutually agreed plan with at least USD 300 billion for the reconstruction and economic development of the Islamic Republic of Iran, as part of a final deal.

7. The U.S. undertakes to terminate all types of sanctions against the Islamic Republic of Iran, including the United Nations Security Council resolutions, IAEA Board of Governors resolutions, and all unilateral U.S. sanctions, primary and secondary, in an agreed upon schedule as part of the final deal.

8. The Islamic Republic of Iran reaffirms that it shall not procure or develop nuclear weapons. The U.S. and Iran have agreed to resolve the disposition of stockpiled enriched materials, pursuant to a mechanism that will be mutually agreed upon in accordance with the schedule mentioned in paragraph seven with the minimum methodology to be downblending on site under the supervision of the IAEA. The two parties also agreed to discuss the issue of enrichment and other mutually agreed matters related to Iran's nuclear needs.

9. Pending the final deal, the U.S. and Iran agree to maintain the status quo. Iran will maintain the current status quo of its nuclear program, and the U.S. will not impose any new sanctions and will not deploy additional forces in the region.

10. The U.S. undertakes that immediately upon the signing of this MoU, sanctions waivers will be issued for the export of Iranian crude oil, petroleum products, and derivatives, and all associated services, including banking transactions, insurances, transportation, etc.

11. The U.S. undertakes to make fully available for use the frozen or restricted funds of Iran upon the implementation of this MoU. The U.S. and Iran will mutually agree on the procedures related to the release of these funds during the negotiations.

12. A monitoring mechanism will be established to supervise the implementation of this MoU and subsequent final agreement.

13. After signing this MoU and subject to the beginning of the implementation of paragraphs 1, 4, 5, 10, and 11, the U.S. and Iran will start negotiations regarding the final deal.

14. The final deal will be endorsed by a UNSC Resolution.

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— 🇺🇸/🇮🇷 CONFIRMED:

✅ The United States of America has granted the Islamic Republic of Iran the future administration and management of maritime services in the Strait of Hormuz, after consultation with Oman.

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— 🇺🇸/🇮🇷 About Iran’s frozen funds:

If we look at Paragraph 11, it becomes clear that Iran’s frozen funds are not immediately released, but rather it is stated the process of releasing them will be initiated.

The paragraph says the U.S. simply UNDERTAKES (i.e. agrees to begin) the release of funds, and that Iran and the U.S. will ‘mutually agree on the procedures related to the release of these funds’. This means it’s not immediate, contrary to the words of Araqchi.

Another clause that pertains to this matter is Paragraph 13. There, it says the final 60-days negotiations will start once the U.S. ‘begins’ to implement the other paragraphs (including the release of frozen funds).

In practice, this means that the funds will merely begin the ‘process’ of being released upon signing the MoU. Paragraph 13 was designed to ensure that Iran will receive the funds before negotiations will proceed (before the 60-days for a final deal), but it doesn’t actually say that! It only says the process must have been initiated.

This is an important detail that slipped the mind of Iranian officials. Instead of starting the 60-days negotiations when the U.S. has ‘begun’ to implement Paragraph 11, it should have been stated that Iran will enter final negotiations once the provisions in Paragraph 11 have been ‘COMPLETED’.

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— 🇺🇸/🇮🇷 Another small problem, in Paragraph 8:

Iran has agreed to downblend its enriched uranium stockpile inside Iran.

Although this is the best-case scenario compared to transfering it abroad, and it would have likely been agreed upon later anyway, the fact is that Araqchi insisted no such commitment was made in the MoU.

Luckily, the MoU does not specify any technical details or frameworks to actually ensure the implementation of this clause. That’s the most important part. After all, words and promises mean nothing.

(Of course it should be noted this concession was made in exchange for the complete removal of all sanctions)

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— 🇺🇸/🇮🇷 An analysis on this section of Paragraph 4:

‘The United States of America undertakes to remove its forces from the proximity of the Islamic Republic of Iran within 30 days of a final deal’


I have three criticisms on this clause, depending on which it can be either good or bad.

1. The forces should have been withdrawn immediately within 30 days of signing the MoU and before the final 60 days of negotiations begin. This would ensure that the negotiations for a final deal do not happen under a threat of military force. Withdrawing after the final deal is good, but defeats the purpose.

2. It has not been specified what ‘proximity’ of Iran means, what sort of forces and assets will be withdrawn (what about defensive assets like THAAD / Patriot?), and whether the withdrawal is a general withdrawal of American forces from the region or it only includes the forces that amassed as a part of Operation Epic Fury.

3. There is no specified mechanism for ensuring the implentation of the clause.

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— 🇺🇸/🇮🇷 And perhaps my biggest problem with the MoU is the $300 Billion reconstruction fund

While it may seem like a very large sum of money, a couple important things should be noted.

First of all, this reconstruction fund won’t be supplied to Iran directly by giving money. It’s an ‘investment program’, and it’s not government-funded. In other words, private companies will invest in Iran’s economy to participate in reconstruction, rebuild, and take part in Iran’s industry.

It’s very doubtful that private companies would even want to invest in Iran, a country with quite a bad and corrupt economy (unfortunately). Even if they do invest, Iran doesn’t control where the money goes.

This creates two problems. On the one hand, Arab / Western companies will hold influence over Iran because of their investments in rebuilding projects. This increases the risk of economic coercion and even espionage activities.

On the other hand, these companies definitely won’t engage in any projects that involve the IRGC, which is a big problem. The IRGC plays a very important part in Iran’s building sector. If money won’t flow into those projects, rebuilding won’t be truly and properly done—it will be extremely limited and on the enemy’s terms.

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Forwarded from Mediterranean Man (Lhiet)
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⚡🇺🇸🇮🇷 President Donald Trump says he does not view the reported 60-day timeframe for negotiations with Iran as a hard deadline.

"Could take longer. I don't view it as hard. Just as long as they are behaving, I really don't care that much," Trump told reporters.

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Mediterranean Man
⚡🇺🇸🇮🇷 President Donald Trump says he does not view the reported 60-day timeframe for negotiations with Iran as a hard deadline. "Could take longer. I don't view it as hard. Just as long as they are behaving, I really don't care that much," Trump told reporters.…
— Interesting, because hypothetically it’s in Iran’s interest to postpone negotiations for as long as possible

During negotiations, sanctions waivers on oil, gas, petrochemicals etc. are in effect, giving Iran lots of money.

I wouldn’t be surprised if Iran drags out the negotiation process for multiple months or even a year.

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— 🇺🇸/🇮🇱/🇮🇷 Some Israelis’ replies to the MoU text:

‘May his name and memory be erased, Trump, the greatest enemy of Jews in the current generation.’

‘Section 1 says Israeli withdrawal from Lebanon. And that’s only the first section.’

‘The Iranians gave them a political colonoscopy’


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— 🇱🇧/🇮🇷 Lebanese President, Joseph Aoun: ‘We are for a ceasefire and any country that supports us in that goal, including Iran’

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Forwarded from Tabz - Live News (Tabz)
🇮🇷🇺🇸⚡️ — BREAKING: The U.S. and Iran digitally signed the MoU to end the war tonight, according to Axios, citing two senior U.S. officials.

➡️ The memorandum of understanding is now officially in effect.
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Tabz - Live News
🇮🇷🇺🇸⚡️ — BREAKING: The U.S. and Iran digitally signed the MoU to end the war tonight, according to Axios, citing two senior U.S. officials. ➡️ The memorandum of understanding is now officially in effect.
I thought it already was signed electronically on Sunday

And also there’s a signing ceremony on Friday

Confusing stuff
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—❗️🇺🇸/🇮🇷 Iran’s Foreign Ministry Spokesman, Ismael Baqaei:

‘The Memorandum of Understanding has been signed electronically by the President of Iran, Masoud Pezeshkian, and the President of the United States.

There will be no official signing ceremony on Friday, but two high-ranking delegations including Qalibaf and Vance will meet in Switzerland to begin the first session of the 30-days technical talks on implementation.’

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Middle East Spectator — MES
—❗️🇺🇸/🇮🇷 Iran’s Foreign Ministry Spokesman, Ismael Baqaei: ‘The Memorandum of Understanding has been signed electronically by the President of Iran, Masoud Pezeshkian, and the President of the United States. There will be no official signing ceremony on…
— 🇺🇸/🇮🇷 NOTE: President Trump signed the document while in Versailles, the same location where Germany signed its surrender treaty in 1918 after its defeat in World War I

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— 🇺🇸/🇮🇷 Iran’s Foreign Ministry Spokesman, Ismael Baqaei:

‘Iran's missiles are meant to be fired, not negotiated over.

Our missiles don't even like being talked about.

Iran's defensive capabilities will not be discussed in any process, with any party.’

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— 🇺🇸/🇮🇷 NEW: At 00:00 Eastern time, U.S. sanctions on Iranian oil, gas, and petrochemical products will be lifted

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