Open Source Intel
Getting these vibes today…
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Getting these vibes today…
The year is 2028.
Trump just announced that the deal with Iran is about to be signed this weekend.
Iran says it is reviewing the final text.
The U.S. says discussions are constructive.
Pakistan says a breakthrough is imminent.
Qatar says it is honored to have played a constructive role in facilitating the talks. Qatar did not facilitate the talks.
Israel says it learned about the deal from Truth Social.
Hezbollah in southern Lebanon is still getting bombed daily.
Axios reports a rift between Netanyahu and Trump. The White House denies it. Trump then posts a photo of himself and Netanyahu. Netanyahu is not in the photo.
Oil jumps 3%.
Then falls 4%.
Trump says the deal is being signed at the request of Pakistan and Field Marshal Syed Asim Munir, who Trump describes as “one of the great generals, maybe the greatest, people are saying.”
A senior official says we’re “closer than ever.”
A different senior official says “significant gaps remain.”
They work in the same office.
The next round of talks is scheduled for next weekend.
It will also be described as a breakthrough.
Qatar thanks Pakistan for its important role and takes credit for the progress. tweet
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Open Source Intel (@Osint613) on X
The year is 2028.
Trump just announced that the deal with Iran is about to be signed this weekend.
Iran says it is reviewing the final text.
The U.S. says discussions are constructive.
Pakista…
Trump just announced that the deal with Iran is about to be signed this weekend.
Iran says it is reviewing the final text.
The U.S. says discussions are constructive.
Pakista…
Open Source Intel
Qatar's Foreign Ministry Spokesman Al Hashmi:
If anyone on the Iranian side honestly asked themselves and reconsidered their calculations:
Who suffers the most every time a mine explodes in the Strait of Hormuz?
Who suffers the most when an oil spill occurs from a vessel? Who suffers the most if internet cables are cut?
Will it be the United States, separated from the Strait of Hormuz by a vast ocean? Will it be Israel, which does not depend on Gulf waters?
Or will the greatest victims be the countries of the region, including the Iranian people themselves?
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Qatar's Foreign Ministry Spokesman Al Hashmi:
If anyone on the Iranian side honestly asked themselves and reconsidered their calculations:
Who suffers the most every time a mine explodes in the Strait of Hormuz?
Who suffers the most when an oil spill occurs from a vessel? Who suffers the most if internet cables are cut?
Will it be the United States, separated from the Strait of Hormuz by a vast ocean? Will it be Israel, which does not depend on Gulf waters?
Or will the greatest victims be the countries of the region, including the Iranian people themselves?
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OSINT
Video
Visioner
BREAKING | 🇷🇺🇺🇦🇫🇮‼️‼️ A Russian military satellite, Kosmos-2612, reportedly approached within just 26 meters of the Finnish-American ICEYE-X36 satellite, which provides intelligence data to Ukraine, raising concerns over a potential attempt to disrupt Kyiv’s space-based reconnaissance capabilities.
Space technology analyst Giorgi Trishkin suggested that the satellites’ near-zero relative velocity could indicate a deliberate Russian maneuver designed to force ICEYE-X36 to adjust its orbit. Such evasive maneuvers could consume valuable onboard fuel, shorten the satellite’s operational lifespan, and potentially interrupt the delivery of critical intelligence to Ukrainian forces. RAND researcher Michael Bohnert described the Russian satellite’s close approach as a demonstration of force. However, Moscow’s intentions have not been independently established.
The incident highlights an increasingly important dimension of Russia’s confrontation with Ukraine and its Western partners. Satellite-based intelligence plays a critical role in monitoring Russian military movements, identifying targets, and supporting battlefield operations. Deliberate close approaches could threaten these capabilities without directly attacking a satellite, creating additional operational costs and raising the risk of dangerous incidents in orbit.
See the latest updates with us: @visionergeo
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BREAKING | 🇷🇺🇺🇦🇫🇮‼️‼️ A Russian military satellite, Kosmos-2612, reportedly approached within just 26 meters of the Finnish-American ICEYE-X36 satellite, which provides intelligence data to Ukraine, raising concerns over a potential attempt to disrupt Kyiv’s space-based reconnaissance capabilities.
Space technology analyst Giorgi Trishkin suggested that the satellites’ near-zero relative velocity could indicate a deliberate Russian maneuver designed to force ICEYE-X36 to adjust its orbit. Such evasive maneuvers could consume valuable onboard fuel, shorten the satellite’s operational lifespan, and potentially interrupt the delivery of critical intelligence to Ukrainian forces. RAND researcher Michael Bohnert described the Russian satellite’s close approach as a demonstration of force. However, Moscow’s intentions have not been independently established.
The incident highlights an increasingly important dimension of Russia’s confrontation with Ukraine and its Western partners. Satellite-based intelligence plays a critical role in monitoring Russian military movements, identifying targets, and supporting battlefield operations. Deliberate close approaches could threaten these capabilities without directly attacking a satellite, creating additional operational costs and raising the risk of dangerous incidents in orbit.
See the latest updates with us: @visionergeo
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Open Source Intel
Footage shows a Ukrainian interceptor drone downing a Russian Geran-2 loitering munition. https://x.com/OSINTWarfare/status/2112496549053812818/video/1
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Footage shows a Ukrainian interceptor drone downing a Russian Geran-2 loitering munition. https://x.com/OSINTWarfare/status/2112496549053812818/video/1
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OSINT
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Visioner
RT @NSTRIKE1231: BIG | 🇺🇦🇷🇺‼️ Ukraine’s Unmanned Systems Forces commander, Robert Brovdi, known as Magyar, reports a record pace of Russian personnel losses in October, claiming that Ukrainian drone units are eliminating one Russian soldier from the battlefield every 162 seconds, or 2 minutes and 42 seconds.
According to Brovdi, Ukraine’s Unmanned Systems Forces (SBS) had already fulfilled their planned monthly target for Russian personnel losses by 7 PM on October 19, twelve days before the end of the month.
He reported 10,027 Russian soldiers killed or seriously wounded between October 1 and 19, compared with 6,376 during the same period in August and 8,097 in September.
The reported figures represent a 57% increase over August and a 23.6% increase over September. These are Ukrainian military figures that have not been independently verified.
🔥 The sharp increase in reported Russian casualties highlights the expanding effectiveness of Ukrainian drone warfare and its growing importance in frontline operations. Sustained losses at this scale could place considerable pressure on Russia’s ability to replenish infantry formations and maintain offensive momentum. The figures also demonstrate how unmanned systems are increasingly shaping the battlefield through persistent surveillance and precision strikes.
See the latest updates with us: @NSTRIKE1231
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RT @NSTRIKE1231: BIG | 🇺🇦🇷🇺‼️ Ukraine’s Unmanned Systems Forces commander, Robert Brovdi, known as Magyar, reports a record pace of Russian personnel losses in October, claiming that Ukrainian drone units are eliminating one Russian soldier from the battlefield every 162 seconds, or 2 minutes and 42 seconds.
According to Brovdi, Ukraine’s Unmanned Systems Forces (SBS) had already fulfilled their planned monthly target for Russian personnel losses by 7 PM on October 19, twelve days before the end of the month.
He reported 10,027 Russian soldiers killed or seriously wounded between October 1 and 19, compared with 6,376 during the same period in August and 8,097 in September.
The reported figures represent a 57% increase over August and a 23.6% increase over September. These are Ukrainian military figures that have not been independently verified.
🔥 The sharp increase in reported Russian casualties highlights the expanding effectiveness of Ukrainian drone warfare and its growing importance in frontline operations. Sustained losses at this scale could place considerable pressure on Russia’s ability to replenish infantry formations and maintain offensive momentum. The figures also demonstrate how unmanned systems are increasingly shaping the battlefield through persistent surveillance and precision strikes.
See the latest updates with us: @NSTRIKE1231
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WarTranslated
RT @Teoyaomiquu: russia has run into serious problems with its offensive in Donbas, where its forces have become bogged down.
One of the main reasons was that russian logistics had been crippled by Ukrainian drone strikes. This campaign depended heavily on Starlink terminals operating on high-speed Ukrainian drones.
russian military command identified this as a critical problem and approached the American side, asking it to restrict the speeds at which Starlink terminals could operate.
The argument was simple: there would be little public backlash because the US could still claim that Starlink was operational and that the service was still being provided.
The Trump administration agreed to the restrictions, effectively solving a critical battlefield problem for Russia.
As a result, russian logistics in Donbas are now safer, and Ukraine has lost an important advantage on the battlefield.
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RT @Teoyaomiquu: russia has run into serious problems with its offensive in Donbas, where its forces have become bogged down.
One of the main reasons was that russian logistics had been crippled by Ukrainian drone strikes. This campaign depended heavily on Starlink terminals operating on high-speed Ukrainian drones.
russian military command identified this as a critical problem and approached the American side, asking it to restrict the speeds at which Starlink terminals could operate.
The argument was simple: there would be little public backlash because the US could still claim that Starlink was operational and that the service was still being provided.
The Trump administration agreed to the restrictions, effectively solving a critical battlefield problem for Russia.
As a result, russian logistics in Donbas are now safer, and Ukraine has lost an important advantage on the battlefield.
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OSINT
Video
Visioner
BIG | 🇱🇾🇹🇷‼️‼️ Libya’s eastern-based House of Representatives has reportedly approved the maritime agreement with Turkey, reversing years of opposition and signaling a major shift in relations between Ankara and the political camp backed by military commander Khalifa Haftar.
The agreement was originally signed in November 2019 between Turkey and Libya’s internationally recognized Government of National Accord in Tripoli. Libya has since remained divided between rival administrations, with the internationally recognized government led by Abdul Hamid Dbeibah in the west and a parallel administration supported by the House of Representatives and Haftar’s forces in the east. Eastern Libyan authorities had long opposed the agreement because Turkey supported their political and military rivals. The reported approval therefore represents a significant departure from their previous position.
The decision could substantially strengthen Turkey’s strategic position in the Eastern Mediterranean, where maritime boundaries and rights to offshore energy resources remain disputed. More importantly, closer relations with Haftar’s camp would allow Ankara to expand its influence beyond western Libya and potentially develop deeper military and economic cooperation with both sides of the country’s political divide. This shift could also reshape regional diplomatic calculations involving Greece, Egypt, and other Mediterranean powers.
See the latest updates with us: @visionergeo
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BIG | 🇱🇾🇹🇷‼️‼️ Libya’s eastern-based House of Representatives has reportedly approved the maritime agreement with Turkey, reversing years of opposition and signaling a major shift in relations between Ankara and the political camp backed by military commander Khalifa Haftar.
The agreement was originally signed in November 2019 between Turkey and Libya’s internationally recognized Government of National Accord in Tripoli. Libya has since remained divided between rival administrations, with the internationally recognized government led by Abdul Hamid Dbeibah in the west and a parallel administration supported by the House of Representatives and Haftar’s forces in the east. Eastern Libyan authorities had long opposed the agreement because Turkey supported their political and military rivals. The reported approval therefore represents a significant departure from their previous position.
The decision could substantially strengthen Turkey’s strategic position in the Eastern Mediterranean, where maritime boundaries and rights to offshore energy resources remain disputed. More importantly, closer relations with Haftar’s camp would allow Ankara to expand its influence beyond western Libya and potentially develop deeper military and economic cooperation with both sides of the country’s political divide. This shift could also reshape regional diplomatic calculations involving Greece, Egypt, and other Mediterranean powers.
See the latest updates with us: @visionergeo
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Open Source Intel
Footage released by Houthis shows its fighters capturing Jabal Han, west of Taiz, after heavy clashes with forces loyal to Yemen's Presidential Leadership Council. The mountain is now reportedly under Houthi control. https://x.com/OSINTWarfare/status/2112538447189565775/video/1
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Footage released by Houthis shows its fighters capturing Jabal Han, west of Taiz, after heavy clashes with forces loyal to Yemen's Presidential Leadership Council. The mountain is now reportedly under Houthi control. https://x.com/OSINTWarfare/status/2112538447189565775/video/1
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OSINTWarfare (@OSINTWarfare) on X
Ansar Allah (Houthis) has released footage showing its forces engaged in fierce clashes with forces loyal to Yemen’s Presidential Leadership Council (PLC) at Jabal Han (Mount Han), west of Taiz ci…
Nuno Felix
Excellent, one less…
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Excellent, one less…
My son has 'disappeared off the face of the earth' fighting for Russia https://bbc.in/3U74ABx tweet
Open Source Intel
Multiple Israeli artillery attacks and strikes reported across southern Lebanon, targeting the areas of Barashit, Mifdun and Qantara. https://twitter.com/Osint613/status/2112543682784346144/photo/1
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Multiple Israeli artillery attacks and strikes reported across southern Lebanon, targeting the areas of Barashit, Mifdun and Qantara. https://twitter.com/Osint613/status/2112543682784346144/photo/1
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Nuno Felix
RT @Restitutor_: Holy moly 🧵
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RT @Restitutor_: Holy moly 🧵
‼️ Leaked AfD emails show party bosses approving money for lawyers to stop a story, a "legal way out" pitched to Alice Weidel, a 2,000-name list of "antifascists" and a candidate who bugged a bedroom with an Alexa.
A call for an armed Reichstag takeover.
The 12 biggest finds 🧵 https://twitter.com/IntCyberDigest/status/2112292377285320828/photo/1 tweet
OSINT
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Status-6
RT @JohnH105: Last week the HUR said Russia is developing a version of the Kinzhal missile that swaps out the penetrating HE warhead for an HE frag warhead, likely because the latter requires less accuracy. According to HUR, Russia had suspended Kinzhal production at least partly due to accuracy issues and shifted resources to 9M723 Iskander production (see below).
https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2026/10/12/8057546/index.amp
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RT @JohnH105: Last week the HUR said Russia is developing a version of the Kinzhal missile that swaps out the penetrating HE warhead for an HE frag warhead, likely because the latter requires less accuracy. According to HUR, Russia had suspended Kinzhal production at least partly due to accuracy issues and shifted resources to 9M723 Iskander production (see below).
https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2026/10/12/8057546/index.amp
HUR deputy head Vadym Skibitskyi says Russia is currently exceeding its monthly production targets for key missiles.
- Monthly target for 9M723 Iskander is 60, but produced 65 in July.
- July and August production targets for Kh-101 = 72 missiles per month, but produced 87 in July.
- July and August production targets for Kalibr = 26 missiles per month, but produced 29 in July.
- Reached annual target for Tsirkon (33 missiles) and Oniks (60 missiles) in seven months. Oniks was upgraded to accuracy against ground targets and to increase range and warhead.
- Fulfilled July target for Kh-35 by 200%
- August production target for RM-48U is ~40 missiles. Estimated stockpile of 400 missiles. Mach 6 velocity.
Russia achieved this increase in production partly by simplifying quality-control requirements and by “suspending” [or just reducing?] production of Kh-32 and Kinzhal since April. For more details on decrease in Kinzhal production: https://x.com/JohnH105/status/2062596899102703956). “They had been working to improve the accuracy of the Kh-32. However, the results of several combat tests showed that they were unable to do so, so the Russians sent the missiles back for further development and suspended their serial production. They have similar issues with Kinzhal missiles. We can hardly recall a case when this missile hit its target accurately. For an effective missile, the deviation from the target should not exceed 5-7 meters, while theirs is 30 meters or more.”
The Russians "are not really drawing down their stockpiles. Almost everything being used now is coming straight off the production line. The only exception is the Kalibr missiles - most of them are currently being allocated to other Russian fleets, since all new Russian warships and submarines are equipped with these systems. In effect, those missiles are going into reserve stockpiles... According to military intelligence, as of August 5, the stockpile allocated to the Russian military grouping stood at around 130 9M723 missiles."
Russia launched 61 ballistic missiles in April, 107 in May, 134 in June, and 198 in July. For cruise missiles, July ranked second in 2026 (with 153) behind February (157). Russia began using more Banderol and Dan-T this year.
Russian barrages are currently focused on 1) Ukraine’s defense industry (particularly ballistic missile and UAS production) and 2) logistics (railways, port infrastructure, shipping, Rozetka/Nova Poshta, etc). Moscow also seeks to destabilize Kyiv politically, coupling strikes with information operations saying Ukrainian authorities cannot defend the country.
https://newsukraine.rbc.ua/interview/d-1786341590.html tweet
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Visioner
BIG | 🇮🇱🇸🇾‼️‼️ Israeli forces are reportedly establishing a military installation on Jabal al-Arab in Syria’s southern Suwayda province, potentially including advanced radar systems and surveillance equipment.
A local source told Syria 360 that dozens of Israeli military helicopters had transported substantial quantities of weapons, equipment, and advanced technology to the mountainous area over the past 72 hours. According to the report, the operation is intended to support the construction of a military base near the summit. Local Druze authorities have also reportedly prohibited civilians from approaching the facilities or taking photographs. The reported deployment and construction activities have not been independently verified.
A military installation on Jabal al-Arab could provide Israel with a strategically valuable position for monitoring southern Syria and detecting potential aerial threats. The mountainous terrain would offer advantages for radar coverage, surveillance, and early warning capabilities. A permanent Israeli military presence in the area, however, would also raise serious questions about Syrian sovereignty and could further complicate the already fragile security situation in southern Syria.
See the latest updates with us: @visionergeo
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BIG | 🇮🇱🇸🇾‼️‼️ Israeli forces are reportedly establishing a military installation on Jabal al-Arab in Syria’s southern Suwayda province, potentially including advanced radar systems and surveillance equipment.
A local source told Syria 360 that dozens of Israeli military helicopters had transported substantial quantities of weapons, equipment, and advanced technology to the mountainous area over the past 72 hours. According to the report, the operation is intended to support the construction of a military base near the summit. Local Druze authorities have also reportedly prohibited civilians from approaching the facilities or taking photographs. The reported deployment and construction activities have not been independently verified.
A military installation on Jabal al-Arab could provide Israel with a strategically valuable position for monitoring southern Syria and detecting potential aerial threats. The mountainous terrain would offer advantages for radar coverage, surveillance, and early warning capabilities. A permanent Israeli military presence in the area, however, would also raise serious questions about Syrian sovereignty and could further complicate the already fragile security situation in southern Syria.
See the latest updates with us: @visionergeo
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