WarMonitor
RT @TheStudyofWar: MORE: Ukraine has regained the operational initiative on most key battlefield directions and has been contesting Russia’s strategic initiative since late 2025, writes @nataliabugayova. ⬇️

Ukraine has slowed Russian battlefield advances to a footpace in 2026 and has grown the already staggering human cost of the Russian advance.

Ukraine has retaken significant territory from Russia in 2026, and at the theater level has nearly zeroed out Russian gains for the year. ISW has observed evidence to assess that Russian forces have only made a net gain of about 100 square kilometers thus far in 2026 thanks to Ukrainian counteroffensives, which have liberated at least 1,046 square kilometers, for example. The daily Russian net rate of advance in 2026 is so far less than a square kilometer per day — literal footpace. Russia’s summer offensive has failed. Russia’s fall offensive is likely to fail as well.

Russian President Vladimir Putin has failed to accomplish any of his stated war aims in Ukraine to date. Putin did not force the Ukrainian government to capitulate, nor did he destroy the Ukrainian military. Russia is nowhere close to taking the rest of the Donetsk region, including the Fortress Belt – one of Putin’s stated war aims.

Ukraine has forced the Kremlin to confront dilemmas inside of Russia that would have been unthinkable not long ago. Ukraine’s deep strike campaign has triggered fuel shortages in Russia, degrading at least 30 percent of its refining capacity, and forced Moscow to choose which infrastructure to protect with air defense assets. Ukrainian advances and strikes are challenging Putin’s promises of Russia’s economic stability, security, and greatness.

Ukraine’s 2026 battlefield progress is not transient or accidental — it is a result of Ukraine’s maturing warfighting capabilities and military transformation that occurred over 2025 and 2026. Ukraine has significantly grown its intermediate-range and deep-strike campaigns, expanded military production, matured operational art concepts, and is increasingly focused on the long-term warfighting strategy. Ukraine is working on its ballistic missile program, which, if successful, will put key Russian defense industrial and military infrastructure at even greater risk.

SPECIAL REPORT: The United States and Europe risk squandering the best opportunity since 2022 to alter Russia’s trajectory toward a longer and larger war. Ukraine currently has the best chance of seizing the strategic initiative against Russia since December 2022, while simultaneously facing the greatest risk to its momentum.

Russia’s ballistic missile and jet-powered drone campaign against Ukraine, alongside its growing kinetic attacks against NATO states, aims to drive Ukraine and its allies into a reactive stance and distract them from seizing a hard-won opportunity to hold the strategic initiative against Russia.

The Kremlin’s offer to supply diesel to global markets is a cognitive warfare effort that aims to disrupt the momentum of the effective pressure campaign against Russia’s energy sector.

The Kremlin is vigilant about Ukraine and its partners holding the initiative and seeks to deter and disrupt it at all costs.

The United States and Europe can either deny the Kremlin’s strategy or risk a greater war with greater escalation risks. - Institute for the Study of War
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WarMonitor
RT @FaytuksNetwork: Trump says diesel covered by his agreement with Russia is intended for global markets, not U.S. import, after lawmakers questioned the deal’s legality under American restrictions. He did not answer whether proceeds could fund Russia’s war.
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The Spectator Index
US average diesel price

One year ago: $3.65

Now: $6.27

(AAA) https://twitter.com/spectatorindex/status/2110175859877523633/photo/1
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Disclose.tv
NOW - Trump: "Wait till you see what we do to Iran. We're gonna—we're gonna do a number. Wait till you see... We've had it." https://twitter.com/disclosetv/status/2110184314461642957/video/1
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Disclose.tv
NOW - Trump: "If the Democrats win you will have a 1929-style economic depression... If the Republicans win, you will each receive $5,000 in your pocket... Just recently, I gave all members of our military $1,776, and everybody said that can't be done!" https://twitter.com/disclosetv/status/2110185937879678984/video/1
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The Spectator Index
BREAKING: Trump repeats that a Democrats victory at mid-terms will give America a '1929-style economic depression', while a Republican victory means each person will receive '$5,000 in your pocket'.
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Open Source Intel
Faytuks Network: U.S. Army says representatives of eight countries, Albania, Canada, Croatia, Egypt, Japan, Kuwait, Morocco and Panama, signed statements of intent to participate in its UAS/cUAS marketplace.
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Open Source Intel
A federal judge has barred the Trump administration from banning CNN, MS NOW and Politico from White House grounds, ruling that the outlets are likely to prevail on due process and First Amendment claims.
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The Spectator Index
BREAKING: China reports massive $133 billion trade surplus in September, the biggest in 20 months. https://twitter.com/spectatorindex/status/2110234247072219591/photo/1
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Open Source Intel
The Israeli military says it eliminated Hamas commander Momen Ahmad Salameh Ay in the Gaza City area who took part in holding hostages captive and advanced attacks against troops and civilians in violation of the ceasefire. https://twitter.com/Osint613/status/2110247310990925825/video/1
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Open Source Intel
U.S. President Donald Trump:

"Massive Oil, Gas, and Mineral Exploration is getting ready to begin in our new and beautiful Greenland! There are Experts that are saying that the amount of easily available Oil is far greater than that of almost any land, anywhere in the World and, even more importantly, from a Security Purpose in the Defense and Offense of both the United States of America, and Europe, is second to none. Any future attack on the United States will have to come across Greenland, where our Defense will routinely knock down drones, missiles, or any other form of weapon not yet even conceived. It gives us time, location, and sightline, like nowhere else in the World! Thank you for your attention to this matter. President DONALD J. TRUMP".
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Open Source Intel
Netanyahu on Britain:

"Do you know what happened in Britain, which has undergone Islamization? Three thousand people in Britain have been arrested and prosecuted over posts on social media. Only on one side, of course. Only on the right."
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Open Source Intel
Netanyahu:

All those who have the audacity to walk out of the hall when I speak at the UN, or who condemn us, afterward come and say:

"Wait, don't take that into account. But can we get Arrow? Can we get this? Can we get that?"

And you know what I tell them?

Behave differently, and you will receive plenty. Give, and you will receive. Keep giving us these insults, and you will receive nothing.
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Open Source Intel
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu:

"There is almost no country in the Middle East that does not ask us for help.

And I will surprise you: There is almost no Western country that does not ask us for help."

Netanyahu:

All those who have the audacity to walk out of the hall when I speak at the UN, or who condemn us, afterward come and say:

"Wait, don't take that into account. But can we get Arrow? Can we get this? Can we get that?"

And you know what I tell them?

Behave differently, and you will receive plenty. Give, and you will receive. Keep giving us these insults, and you will receive nothing. - Open Source Intel
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Open Source Intel
Zelensky: 39 ballistic missiles and over 120 drones hit Ukrainian energy and infrastructure sites overnight.

Around 500,000 people are without power.
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Open Source Intel
Zelensky on the attack: Russia "does not consider the American president's statements strong."

Zelensky: 39 ballistic missiles and over 120 drones hit Ukrainian energy and infrastructure sites overnight.

Around 500,000 people are without power. - Open Source Intel
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Open Source Intel
Netanyahu:

We have transformed Israel into the strongest power in the Middle East and one of the strongest powers in the world.

Netanyahu:

All those who have the audacity to walk out of the hall when I speak at the UN, or who condemn us, afterward come and say:

"Wait, don't take that into account. But can we get Arrow? Can we get this? Can we get that?"

And you know what I tell them?

Behave differently, and you will receive plenty. Give, and you will receive. Keep giving us these insults, and you will receive nothing. - Open Source Intel
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Open Source Intel
I had this thought: Saudi Arabia may be sacrificing its own security for solidarity with the Gazans.
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