In August, the debate was whether the rally was only a short squeeze. Now that price is above the cost bases that held it back this year, the question is how far it can go. Last week, this report marked a cluster of long-term holder supply as the ceiling, with a large block of call options just above it. Price now trades above both.
The biggest cluster of long-term holder supply sits at $84K-$85K, just below price. The next major resistance is the mean MVRV price at $96.7K. It is the Realized Price multiplied by Bitcoin's long-term average MVRV, and it marks where the average holder's profit is back to its long-term norm. Buyers from one to two years ago, near the top of the range, also break even close to that level.
On the downside, the True Market Mean at $77K is the main support. If price holds above $84K, the way to $96.7K stays open. A drop back below $84K would bring $77K back into view.
The biggest cluster of long-term holder supply sits at $84K-$85K, just below price. The next major resistance is the mean MVRV price at $96.7K. It is the Realized Price multiplied by Bitcoin's long-term average MVRV, and it marks where the average holder's profit is back to its long-term norm. Buyers from one to two years ago, near the top of the range, also break even close to that level.
On the downside, the True Market Mean at $77K is the main support. If price holds above $84K, the way to $96.7K stays open. A drop back below $84K would bring $77K back into view.
Trading Crypto Guide ™
#BTC formed a small wedge pattern and attempted a shallow break. Right now, the price is again attempting the break, and buyers are trying their best to break through.
Options data points to the same area. In one day, dealer positioning in Deribit options built up near the top of the range. Positive gamma around the $95K strikes jumped to its highest reading on the chart, and negative gamma built up between spot and $92K.
Gamma describes how dealers hedge their options. Between spot and $92K, their hedging means buying as price rises and selling as it falls, which can speed up moves. Near $95K the effect reverses, and hedging tends to slow price down. That level sits just below the $96.7K mean MVRV price, so $95K-$97K is the first major test if the rally continues.
Gamma describes how dealers hedge their options. Between spot and $92K, their hedging means buying as price rises and selling as it falls, which can speed up moves. Near $95K the effect reverses, and hedging tends to slow price down. That level sits just below the $96.7K mean MVRV price, so $95K-$97K is the first major test if the rally continues.
Trading Crypto Guide ™
#NFP in 9 min
US jobs data is out: Nonfarm Payrolls came in at 29K, well below the 89K forecast and the previous 162K. Meanwhile, the Unemployment Rate rose to 4.2%, above the 4.1% forecast and previous reading. 📉
Buying #ARPA here again
https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ARPA_USDT
Price holding very strong here after horizontal resistance breakout and forming bullish flag now which is looking ready for breakout on daily timeframe✌️
https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ARPA_USDT
Price holding very strong here after horizontal resistance breakout and forming bullish flag now which is looking ready for breakout on daily timeframe✌️
#ARPA/USDT
Downtrendline breakout and retest already done on 2D timeframe and now its in continuation phase
So just buying the dip and holding it till moonshot✍
Downtrendline breakout and retest already done on 2D timeframe and now its in continuation phase
So just buying the dip and holding it till moonshot✍
Trading Crypto Guide ™
#BITCOIN DAILY TF UPDATE: #BITCOIN crosses over the major area and now returns back inside it. Price can easily go to support at $82,500, and a bullish move from there is expected, along with a new higher high.
Trading Crypto Guide ™
#TOTAL UPDATE: #TOTAL shot up as expected; alts moved really well, with a jump from 40% to 200% in the overall market. Price is also rejecting from major resistance now around $2.9T - $2.97T. Minor or short-term retracement can come along with that, so prepare…
#TOTAL UPDATE:
#TOTAL has gone sideways, and the rejection played out pretty well, with the overall altcoin market moving positively. The index is moving sideways, but some altcoins have still performed well, at least until #BTC reaches $85,000. We need to see a clean break and close above the resistance area; then, altcoins will likely experience a very strong mid-term rally.
#TOTAL has gone sideways, and the rejection played out pretty well, with the overall altcoin market moving positively. The index is moving sideways, but some altcoins have still performed well, at least until #BTC reaches $85,000. We need to see a clean break and close above the resistance area; then, altcoins will likely experience a very strong mid-term rally.
Short-term holders are the most likely to sell into a rally, and almost all of them are now in profit. Their share of supply in profit is above the sell line, where their selling has picked up in the past. The line has been crossed early in recoveries, such as 2019 and 2023, and near tops, such as 2021 and 2025. On its own, it does not show which way price goes next.
Realized profit across all holders is still low, so the incentive to sell has not yet turned into heavy selling. A drop back below the sell line, together with rising realized profit, would be the first sign that recent buyers are taking profits.
Realized profit across all holders is still low, so the incentive to sell has not yet turned into heavy selling. A drop back below the sell line, together with rising realized profit, would be the first sign that recent buyers are taking profits.
Trading Crypto Guide ™
Choose a Coin For Analysis
Trading Crypto Guide ™
#BTC WEEKLY TF UPDATE: #BTC gave a shallow weekly close last week and has now exploded toward the next area, but is rejecting from the intermediate levels. Price now has sellers jumping in, but the chain data looks bullish, so we can expect price to make…
#BTC WEEKLY TF UPDATE:
#BTC rejected its previous weekly candle, with a 50-50 body-to-wick closure. This week, price is again showing weakness in its attempt to break that resistance. A weekly candle closing with large wicks on both sides and a small body will once again indicate a week of indecision. Therefore, we need to wait until next week for a breakout.
#BTC rejected its previous weekly candle, with a 50-50 body-to-wick closure. This week, price is again showing weakness in its attempt to break that resistance. A weekly candle closing with large wicks on both sides and a small body will once again indicate a week of indecision. Therefore, we need to wait until next week for a breakout.
Trading Crypto Guide ™
#DXY flipped the area (red zone) and moved straight into the major resistance area. The crypto market rallied a little as #Bitcoin remained stable in a range and Dominance also dropped. Next week we can see continuation in rally, but only if Index fails to…
Trading Crypto Guide ™
#BTC WEEKLY TF UPDATE: #BTC rejected its previous weekly candle, with a 50-50 body-to-wick closure. This week, price is again showing weakness in its attempt to break that resistance. A weekly candle closing with large wicks on both sides and a small body…
#BTC weekly candle gave a shallow close over the resistance area. Looking at the H4 timeframe, price is rejecting multiple times from the resistance area, building liquidity below the zone.
Trading Crypto Guide ™
#US30 UPDATE: #US30 moved as per the plan, creating a new lower low, but did not move down as aggressively as expected. The index has retraced deeper and could continue to fall from here.
#US30 UPDATE:
#US30 is moving as expected; the index fell further, with profits approaching 5%. This was a swing trade that performed very well. Now, the price has reached a key point where there is a 50-50 chance the index will move either above or below. Secure some profit and let the runner run. For longs, look for the resistance line to be broken.
#US30 is moving as expected; the index fell further, with profits approaching 5%. This was a swing trade that performed very well. Now, the price has reached a key point where there is a 50-50 chance the index will move either above or below. Secure some profit and let the runner run. For longs, look for the resistance line to be broken.
Trading Crypto Guide ™
#ZKP has broken out of the triangle with strong volume. Momentum is heating up, this breakout could be the spark for a powerful bullish expansion🚀
#ZKP/USDT
Hit $0.0589 High | +20.45% Profit 🚀
#ZKP moved from the $0.0489 entry to a high of $0.0589, delivering around +20.45% profit.
Another move captured as momentum continues to build. Keep watching the market closely because the next setup can come quickly.
Stay active, keep the channel pinned, and be ready for the next move. 📌🔝
Hit $0.0589 High | +20.45% Profit 🚀
#ZKP moved from the $0.0489 entry to a high of $0.0589, delivering around +20.45% profit.
Another move captured as momentum continues to build. Keep watching the market closely because the next setup can come quickly.
Stay active, keep the channel pinned, and be ready for the next move. 📌🔝
24h Spot Volume across exchanges has more than doubled off its August trough, up 121% since the rally began.
Even more important than the size of the spike is the circumstance it arrived in. From late 2025 through the middle of this year, every expansion in spot turnover came on a leg down: four consecutive volume spikes, each one printed while price was falling. Volume spikes constituted capitulatory selling. August broke that sequence, and was the first expansion in a year to coincide with price rising instead.
Measured against its own recent history the recovery is still incomplete. The seven-day average sits around 30% below where it stood a year ago, which makes this volume coming off the floor rather than a return to 2025 conditions. A sustained hold above the pre-rally range would confirm a durable bid rather than a multi-week squeeze.
Even more important than the size of the spike is the circumstance it arrived in. From late 2025 through the middle of this year, every expansion in spot turnover came on a leg down: four consecutive volume spikes, each one printed while price was falling. Volume spikes constituted capitulatory selling. August broke that sequence, and was the first expansion in a year to coincide with price rising instead.
Measured against its own recent history the recovery is still incomplete. The seven-day average sits around 30% below where it stood a year ago, which makes this volume coming off the floor rather than a return to 2025 conditions. A sustained hold above the pre-rally range would confirm a durable bid rather than a multi-week squeeze.