Bitcoin trades above the True Market Mean, the average cost basis of active investors, near $78K, and further above the Short-Term Holder Cost Basis. Price has held above both since September 18, the stretch the chart shades as the bullish regime.

A third line now sits closer to price: the US Spot ETF Cost Basis, the average price the US spot ETFs paid for the coins they hold, at about $81.5K. Bitcoin dipped under it on October 8 and again on October 13, and both days closed back above it. Every daily close since September 21 has held above this line.

A daily close below it would put the average ETF holder back at a loss and remove the nearest on-chain support.

#BTC closed its week pretty bearishly, making a new lower low and wiping out the old lows. Price is retracing now, and a tap into the resistance area is expected.

#US30 UPDATE:

#US30 continued to move higher than expected. The index moved up around 3.09% in profit and retraced. There are still chances of movement, so we may see strong moves higher.

Long-term holders have largely stopped selling at a loss. Their Realized Loss peaked on August 12 and has since fallen by about 85%. In 2022, the peak in these losses came within weeks of the cycle low.

With that selling mostly done, the coins that change hands are increasingly sold at a profit.

#BTC has gone sideways, moving back and forth around the $80,000 level. Price has formed local support and is expected to drop further to $78,500 - $78,700. There is no need to hurry; we have #FOMC today. Let's see the news and the favored direction.

#GOLD dropped further, and the bearish break was successful. The top trade moved around 8.5% in favor, and another one gained 2.6% in profits. Book the top one at more than 60% and let the second one run.

#FOMC Soon

The US spot ETFs bought heavily as Bitcoin broke above $85K in late September. Between September 21 and October 6, they took in nearly $3B, their fastest pace of buying since November 2025.

That bid has not lasted. Since October 7, the funds have seen about $760M of net outflows. With the ETFs selling and the top buyers selling near their break-even, there is little fresh demand behind price. A return to steady ETF inflows would be the clearest sign that demand is back.

#BTC rose after that small sideways market, but it is still not very clear as we have #FOMC today. News will drive the movement for next month, but bearishness is expected until the support drawn is reached.

#BTC.D rejected strongly from the drawn resistance and started moving sideways. Well, if the market starts dropping, it's a good sign as money will start flowing into altcoins. With that, the market should remain stable, so keep an eye on breakouts.

Last week, this report pointed to the bids at $81K on the Binance spot book. Bitcoin traded through them on October 8, and the largest block of bids now sits one level lower, at $80K. It grew sharply late on October 8 and has held since.

The block sits just under the US Spot ETF Cost Basis, so the zone between $80K and $81.5K is where order-book and on-chain support overlap. A break below it would bring the liquidation cluster just under $80K, and then the True Market Mean near $78K, into play.

#FOMC : The Federal Reserve has left interest rates unchanged.

#BTC tapped into resistance and was rejected strongly by #FOMC. Rates remained unchanged as of now, and the price is approaching support at $78,500 - $78,700. Price is currently sideways, so don't rush for setups.

September #CPI came in above forecasts — headline inflation at 3.7% and core at 2.6% 📉🔴. #BTC dipped within minutes of the release as household inflation expectations climbed to their widest gap over core inflation in three years 💪.

Fed already hiked 25bps on September 16 — #BTC shrugged it off and stood more than 10% higher a week later. Futures traders now raising odds of a second hike at the October 28 meeting with US midterm elections following on November 3 — a critical macro period ahead ⚡️🎯👀

Inside the Reported $5.8 Billion Binance Hack: What’s Confirmed and What Remains Unclear

What Happened?

A suspected security breach involving Binance-linked wallets has triggered concerns across the cryptocurrency market, following reports of massive fund transfers across multiple blockchain networks.

Investigators suspect that attackers may have exploited wallet authorization mechanisms to gain access to funds and move assets across different blockchains. Binance reportedly suspended withdrawals while security checks and investigations were underway.
Key Developments at a Glance

Up to $5.8 billion in assets: Blockchain analysts have reportedly tracked up to $5.8 billion in potentially compromised assets.

Billions in frozen funds: Tether, Circle, and other issuers reportedly froze more than $2.3 billion in potentially affected tokens.

Higher freeze estimates: Some reports suggest that the total value of frozen assets could be approximately $2.6 billion, although figures remain subject to verification.

What We Know So Far

Withdrawals suspended: Binance has reportedly suspended withdrawals as security checks and investigations continue.

Customer funds: Binance has stated that customer funds are safe and that it will cover any confirmed losses.

Asset recovery efforts: Stablecoin issuers have frozen billions of dollars in suspected stolen funds, while blockchain investigators continue tracking the remaining assets.

Unanswered questions: The exact financial losses, attack method, identity of the attackers, and timeline for restoring normal withdrawals have not yet been officially confirmed.

What Remains Unclear?

Despite the reported scale of the incident, several critical details remain unverified. The $5.8 billion figure should not be interpreted as confirmed losses, and the total amount recovered or frozen may change as investigations progress.

The Bottom Line: The reported Binance security incident highlights the risks surrounding cryptocurrency wallet infrastructure and cross-chain transactions. Until more verified information emerges, investors should distinguish between assets potentially affected, funds frozen, and actual financial losses.

#BTC gave a break below the support zone and is now having a retest of the zone. This is the new trading range and might give another drop. But again, then a new price push can be taken towards the $81,800 area.

Update on Recent Hack

#BITCOIN DAILY TF UPDATE:

#BITCOIN dropped as per the analysis and pattern drawn. The price even dropped more than the mentioned area. The level is strong and holding over it, so now we can expect a reversal from here.

#TOTAL UPDATE:

#TOTAL is playing out level by level, moving from retests of resistance and support. The index is currently at support, which is a good time to monitor it for a rejection or a close below. A close below will likely lead to a dump in altcoins.

By our estimate, derived from their holdings and unrealized profit, the treasury companies we track hold their Bitcoin at an average cost of about $80.2K, just under the ETF line. Price spent most of this year under it, falling more than a quarter below it at the end of June, and has closed above it every day since September 18.

Their buying has not returned with price. Every month since June has added less than a tenth of the peak month, November 2024. With both cost bases between $80K and $81.5K, the October 15 sweep tested two of the largest holder groups at once. A daily close below $80K would put both at a loss on average.