🇮🇷🇺🇸🇮🇱| Sadegh Koushak, an Iranian expert, made some interesting remarks about why Iran's deterrence has eroded.

The problem was never weapons, but will.

He says the decline began after the assassination of Martyr Qassem Soleimani. ‘Israel’ and the US had braced themselves for a heavy retaliation, but Iran's response was limited, and so this made them understand that, while Iran has the capabilities, it lacks “political will” to use them.

He gave the Iran–Iraq War as a counterexample, when conventional weapons alone bought decades of deterrence because the resolve was clear.

What followed, gave a clear pattern from there on:
• There was no response to the killing of Mohsen Fakhrizadeh
• Silence after strikes on drone and missile sites, such as hitting the base in Kermanshah, which state TV blamed on lightning
• After October 7, senior commanders were killed in Syria with little to no reaction
• Strike on Iran's consulate in Damascus, and Iran’s response which caused no Israeli casualties

He says the responses Iran did, didn't restore deterrence.

Notably, he blames Iran's political decision making (which has been Rouhani’s administration for the most part) rather than the military itself, which he says had the means to respond. I’m also going to add here that martyrs Hajizadeh & co had iterated in the past that they wanted to do certain actions, but their hands were tied.

@FotrosResistancee