Profit taking stays light against past cycles. Weekly Net Realized Profit/Loss, the net dollar gain locked in when coins change hands, runs well below the average week at the 2024 and 2025 tops. Its pace in this rally, the right-hand band on the chart, is close to the start of the last uptrend in late 2023, the left-hand band.

The sellers have changed, though. Long-term holders, who have held their coins for more than 155 days, nearly doubled their realized profit in the week to September 29 against the week of the breakout, and their share of all realized profit rose from 34% to 55%. Should weekly profit taking climb toward the levels of past tops, it would show holders selling into strength.

BTC dominance is at a decision zone

The chart shows a broadening-wedge breakout followed by a test of the range's supply area inside the Ichimoku cloud. The supplied analysis reports significant volume. A confirmed channel breakout or breakdown would clarify the next move; BTC dominance often moves opposite to altcoin market cap.

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Over the last 30 sessions, Bitcoin has reacted less to the S&P 500's down days than to its up days. The chart shades this pattern green, and it has held since August 20. That window still includes August's rally.

This week, the edge slipped. From September 22 to September 29, Bitcoin fell 2.9% against 1.2% for the S&P 500, and it fell harder than the index on the index's down days. If the green stretch turns red as August's sessions leave the window, the edge over stocks would be gone.

#BITCOIN DAILY TF UPDATE:

#BITCOIN dropped but held on the daily TF. Price did drop lower yesterday but recovered a little with the NY open. Well, the weekend is on, so moves can be limited unless news comes out of nowhere.