During the month of July, 152 KAB airstrikes were conducted, half of them falling on fields and half on forests, treelines and villages. Interestingly, the first strikes hitting Nove and other villages confirmed the fact those were into Ukrainian hands for a long time.
At the end of July, the Ukrainians opened further offensive axes on the balka (small valley) east of Nove (near Novomykhailivka) and started advancing south. At the same time, clearing operations were ongoing in villages on the western side of the bulge. It is worth noting I have and had very few information regarding operation in the western flank, so the map is approximate.
13/20
At the end of July, the Ukrainians opened further offensive axes on the balka (small valley) east of Nove (near Novomykhailivka) and started advancing south. At the same time, clearing operations were ongoing in villages on the western side of the bulge. It is worth noting I have and had very few information regarding operation in the western flank, so the map is approximate.
13/20
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In August, fighting continued and reached further south, with the first rumours of encirclements of the Russian edge north of Lyman. In a month, around 200 airstrikes have been conducted on a large area, with a high concentration on Ukrainian infiltration routes.
The Ukrainians reached around August 15th the northern edge of Kolodiazi village (3km from there). Then, they continued to push on the flanks to clean Russian presence, as some Russian forces got trapped. Interestingly, during all this period, no Russian mapper ever talked about the difficult situation of the Russian grouping, but all of them updated their maps (Divgen, Radov, Rybar…), showing Nove as contested...
14/20
The Ukrainians reached around August 15th the northern edge of Kolodiazi village (3km from there). Then, they continued to push on the flanks to clean Russian presence, as some Russian forces got trapped. Interestingly, during all this period, no Russian mapper ever talked about the difficult situation of the Russian grouping, but all of them updated their maps (Divgen, Radov, Rybar…), showing Nove as contested...
14/20
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On August 24th, Ukraine launched a second successful mechanized assault, which was wrongly interpreted. It seems it was not aimed at pushing further south, but east, to progress between Katerynivka and Novoliubivka.
Here is a map of the situation from a few days ago (OPSEC is still partly ongoing so it's not the current one).
Ukraine cut the bulge, but still need to clear Russian presence west of Kolodiazi. There is no way Russian forces that got stuck west retreated and there is 0 proof of Ukrainian control other the farmlands that I kept in grey. Offensive actions continue on the east.
15/20
Here is a map of the situation from a few days ago (OPSEC is still partly ongoing so it's not the current one).
Ukraine cut the bulge, but still need to clear Russian presence west of Kolodiazi. There is no way Russian forces that got stuck west retreated and there is 0 proof of Ukrainian control other the farmlands that I kept in grey. Offensive actions continue on the east.
15/20
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I've seen many maps of the situation, which were missing many things, so I wanted to make something +/- chronological, with the information I had collected from Open Source.
Claims that a large Russian grouping got encircle are wrong, but I believe a certain number of soldiers are cut off and it was impossible to retreat due to Ukrainian drone monitoring. Russia suffered from lies (if you don't believe me, remember Putin stated Svihatohirsk was liberated (it is 25km from the frontline) and no reinforcement was brought in.
The operation didn't happen in one day and is still ongoing, most of the information I'm giving here are outdated of at least a week.
16/20
Claims that a large Russian grouping got encircle are wrong, but I believe a certain number of soldiers are cut off and it was impossible to retreat due to Ukrainian drone monitoring. Russia suffered from lies (if you don't believe me, remember Putin stated Svihatohirsk was liberated (it is 25km from the frontline) and no reinforcement was brought in.
The operation didn't happen in one day and is still ongoing, most of the information I'm giving here are outdated of at least a week.
16/20
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The main offensive axis comes from Nove and goes all the way south. We know there are two main support axes, one east and on west. The one east is recent and there are very few proofs, we just know that they nearly reached the Zherebet river.
The one west is known, but there is a large area where there may still be Russian soldiers. Most of the villages westwards have been cleared but not the treelines. Units involved include 66th and 60th mecanized, as well as an unknown bat of the 3rd AB and probably some other smaller units (I'm not very good at orbat mapping). Map from few weeks ago :
17/20
The one west is known, but there is a large area where there may still be Russian soldiers. Most of the villages westwards have been cleared but not the treelines. Units involved include 66th and 60th mecanized, as well as an unknown bat of the 3rd AB and probably some other smaller units (I'm not very good at orbat mapping). Map from few weeks ago :
17/20
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About the information space : There is only one reason barely any information was published about this offensive : geolocators for @UkraineDailyUpd
(@moklasen, @giK1893, @ZoamSc2, @Bielitzling, @RoadtoMars9...) chose not to update their map and publish geolocations. I know for sure they have plenty of geolocations from Russian videos that they didn't publish, this shows how small the information space is. If they don't publish anything, barely anyone else is doing any work.
18/20
(@moklasen, @giK1893, @ZoamSc2, @Bielitzling, @RoadtoMars9...) chose not to update their map and publish geolocations. I know for sure they have plenty of geolocations from Russian videos that they didn't publish, this shows how small the information space is. If they don't publish anything, barely anyone else is doing any work.
18/20
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Forwarded from falcon
🗺🛵 Route of the jet drone that entered Moldova and Romania.
Timeline
12:30 UTC - Drone detected by Ukrainian radars
13:00 UTC - Drone enters Ukrainian airspace
13:20 UTC - Drone enters Moldovan airspace
13:30 UTC - Drone flies over the Moldovan capital, Chisinau.
13:40 UTC - Drone enters Romania, crossing from Moldova.
13:52 UTC - Drone does a sudden U-turn and turns back to Moldova
14:15 UTC - Drone's speed suddenly decreased from 450km/h to less than 150km/h, then disappears from radar
📍 Approximate coordinates where it disappeared:
Timeline
12:30 UTC - Drone detected by Ukrainian radars
13:00 UTC - Drone enters Ukrainian airspace
13:20 UTC - Drone enters Moldovan airspace
13:30 UTC - Drone flies over the Moldovan capital, Chisinau.
13:40 UTC - Drone enters Romania, crossing from Moldova.
13:52 UTC - Drone does a sudden U-turn and turns back to Moldova
14:15 UTC - Drone's speed suddenly decreased from 450km/h to less than 150km/h, then disappears from radar
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In August, Russia 🇷🇺 launched 8 673 air-guided bombs against Ukraine 🇺🇦, of which I managed to map 63%
The highest concentration was, for the 1st time since April in the Pokrovsk, Dobropilla, Drujkivka direction, while the Hulialpole direction was 2nd. The Vovcha river direction is third, followed by Sloviansk, Izium and Kupiansk.
This airstrike campaign continues to have devastating effects for frontline positions and cities, with their very good accuracy.
Here is a short animation of airstrikes this year in the Kramatorsk direction, where at least 10 000 impacts were recorded. In Hulialpole, airstrikes continue to move farther west than the frontline, always in front of infiltrations. In this area, they are very precise.
Near Dobropilla, airstrikes are supporting the ongoing offensive, hitting every single treeline and forest. Finally in Kharkiv, they target large forests, since it's difficult to find and strike positions there. Airstrikes also target Sumy direction but I lack the tim eo map them.
The highest concentration was, for the 1st time since April in the Pokrovsk, Dobropilla, Drujkivka direction, while the Hulialpole direction was 2nd. The Vovcha river direction is third, followed by Sloviansk, Izium and Kupiansk.
This airstrike campaign continues to have devastating effects for frontline positions and cities, with their very good accuracy.
Here is a short animation of airstrikes this year in the Kramatorsk direction, where at least 10 000 impacts were recorded. In Hulialpole, airstrikes continue to move farther west than the frontline, always in front of infiltrations. In this area, they are very precise.
Near Dobropilla, airstrikes are supporting the ongoing offensive, hitting every single treeline and forest. Finally in Kharkiv, they target large forests, since it's difficult to find and strike positions there. Airstrikes also target Sumy direction but I lack the tim eo map them.
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Forwarded from Око Гора ✙ Новости и аналитика
FP-5 атаковали хим.завод по производству твердого топлива.
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The Houthis are continuing their offensive and seizing control of the strategic Bab el-Mandeb Strait. The loss of Perim Island—a strategic base on the strait—represents a major turning point for the global economy.
Map 2 clearly illustrates the geopolitical web of the Middle East. Despite multipolar diplomacy, alliances have not disappeared:
▪️ the pro-Iranian bloc
▪️ the Sunni bloc (Turkey, Egypt, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia)
▪️ the Israel–UAE bloc
The balance of power shifted completely after October 7. The pro-Iranian "Axis of Resistance" was severely weakened but not destroyed. Key factors in this shift included:
▪️ the strengthening of Israel
▪️ the fall of Assad in Syria
▪️ the partial, though incomplete, destruction of Hamas and Hezbollah
❗️Conversely, after a series of setbacks between 2023 and 2025, Iran ultimately emerged victorious from the confrontation with Israel and the US. Despite strikes that destroyed parts of its military and economic infrastructure, Tehran still controls the Strait of Hormuz
Map 2 clearly illustrates the geopolitical web of the Middle East. Despite multipolar diplomacy, alliances have not disappeared:
▪️ the pro-Iranian bloc
▪️ the Sunni bloc (Turkey, Egypt, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia)
▪️ the Israel–UAE bloc
The balance of power shifted completely after October 7. The pro-Iranian "Axis of Resistance" was severely weakened but not destroyed. Key factors in this shift included:
▪️ the strengthening of Israel
▪️ the fall of Assad in Syria
▪️ the partial, though incomplete, destruction of Hamas and Hezbollah
❗️Conversely, after a series of setbacks between 2023 and 2025, Iran ultimately emerged victorious from the confrontation with Israel and the US. Despite strikes that destroyed parts of its military and economic infrastructure, Tehran still controls the Strait of Hormuz
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Russia 🇷🇺 continues to intensify strikes against Ukrainian gas stations across the country.
Yesterday, at least 3 gas stations were targeted in downtown Kyiv by Geran-4 drones, while similar strikes continue on key roads with Geran-4 drones and on frontline cities with FPVs and fixed wing drones.
▪️In total, more than 240 gas stations have been hit across the country, close to borders.
▪️This shows the lack of means to target fuel trucks and small fuel storage tanks like Ukraine is doing in the south.
This map only shows part of the gas stations that were hit, so make sure to tell me in comments if I missed any.
Yesterday, at least 3 gas stations were targeted in downtown Kyiv by Geran-4 drones, while similar strikes continue on key roads with Geran-4 drones and on frontline cities with FPVs and fixed wing drones.
▪️In total, more than 240 gas stations have been hit across the country, close to borders.
▪️This shows the lack of means to target fuel trucks and small fuel storage tanks like Ukraine is doing in the south.
This map only shows part of the gas stations that were hit, so make sure to tell me in comments if I missed any.
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Since this morning, hundreds of Russian 🇷🇺 Geran-2 drones are flying along the border with Belarus, attacking targets in north-western Ukraine 🇺🇦 At least 3 gas stations, a train and multiple other targets have been hit today.
This is the first large scale attack on western Ukraine since May 2026 and the return of Geran-2 after a long Geran-4 jet-drone campaign against Kyiv and other targets closer to Russia. Geran-2 drones are slower and can be downed by interceptor drones, but they fly in large teams, which allows them to bypass defenses. One of the strike hit a civilian train in the city center of Lutsk city, while others hit various other civilian targets along the Rivne-Kyiv highway.
Few weeks ago, I warned about Russian willingness to launch renewed large scale attacks on western Ukraine ahead of winter. This week, targets in Khmelnytskyï and Zhytomyr were hit, the westernmost ones in weeks.
Animated map is an agregate of maps from t.me/StrategicaviationT
This is the first large scale attack on western Ukraine since May 2026 and the return of Geran-2 after a long Geran-4 jet-drone campaign against Kyiv and other targets closer to Russia. Geran-2 drones are slower and can be downed by interceptor drones, but they fly in large teams, which allows them to bypass defenses. One of the strike hit a civilian train in the city center of Lutsk city, while others hit various other civilian targets along the Rivne-Kyiv highway.
Few weeks ago, I warned about Russian willingness to launch renewed large scale attacks on western Ukraine ahead of winter. This week, targets in Khmelnytskyï and Zhytomyr were hit, the westernmost ones in weeks.
Animated map is an agregate of maps from t.me/StrategicaviationT
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