Clément Molin
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French Analyst, following the war in Ukraine and other conflicts
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@clement_molin
About the fortifications :

Ukraine has largely slowed down its defensive preparations now that the main lines are complete. Work is ongoing along the borders, east of Zaporizhzhia (2nd and 4th lines), at Dnipro, north of Dobropilla, towards Sloviansk and Kharkiv.
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Clément Molin
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@clement_molin
I don't need to say anything about the strikes in Moscow, since many accounts are talking about it with hundreds of videos.

But :

🔹The Ukrainians went through more than 100 air-defense systems
🔹Russian air-defense has been widely ineffective
🔹Strikes on the Moscow reffinery are very important and we can see how the strike campaign is sclaing up (more than just 3 drones)

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https://twitter.com/pic/amplify_video_thumb%2F2067646995544588288%2Fimg%2FbMci2LTBveRFgFsr.jpg

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@clement_molin
Regarding the situation on the front:

- Ukrainians are continuing the clearing operation around Stepnohirsk; the Russian advance has slowed west of Hulialpole; an assault on Mala Tokmashka has again been repelled.

- Ukrainians are pursuing a large counter-attack between Ternuvat and Novopavlivka, pushing towards two major villages, Uspenivka and Komar, to prevent their use as logistical hubs.

- Pressure continues west of Pokrovsk and towards Dobropilla, but the advance has slowed considerably thanks to a strong Ukrainian defense.

- Russian forces are beginning to take control of several districts in eastern Kostiantynivka, expelling Ukrainian forces from some strongholds. Infiltration and urban fighting continue throughout the city, with flag-raising actions that should not be interpreted as a sign of control. Overall, we are nearing the end of the battle for the city, the fall of which could be staggered until mid-summer. This is Russia's first strategic victory of the year.

-In Siversk, Russian infiltrations continue toward Sloviansk, with the first flags appearing in Rai Oleksandrivka, a strategic height east of the city. Fighting in the sector is currently in favor of Russian forces.

-In Lyman, the Ukrainians are continuing their counter-attack on the northern flank with success (although the maps do not yet show this), while Russian infiltrations continue (as they have for months) toward the city center.

-Nothing to report in Borova.
-In Kupiansk, as in Lyman, Russian infiltrations have been ongoing for months, this time concentrated on the eastern part of the city.

-No significant activity along the border, as the Russian offensive launched in the spring failed to threaten the Ukrainian rear.
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@clement_molin
About airstrikes :

Russian airstrikes continue at a relentless pace.

The priorities remain the same: west of Hulialpole (but not Ternuvat), west and north of Pokrovsk, east of Siversk, and the forests west of Lyman (on the other side of the river).

A new and recent focus has been placed on southern Zaporizhzhia, Chaplyne, Druzhkivka, and the few forests west of Kupyansk.
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@clement_molin
That's all I gathered this afternoon about the situation in Ukraine.

Thank you for following and supporting my work. I will keep an eye on the situation.

I'm curious how much more trucks I will have to add in 10 days...
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Clément Molin
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@clement_molin
Further proofs of possible russian strikes in the last 5 days in the current "red zone", which means the grey zone can be slightly expanded to the Mokri Yali river.

In many areas, ukrainian counter-attacks are advancing slowly with no flag operations so no information is coming from these areas, which gives an assymetrical dimension with the russians showing their flags everywhere they get.
https://twitter.com/pic/media%2FHLIBequXcAAuOfS.jpg https://twitter.com/pic/media%2FHLIB-mGW4AA2nVA.jpg
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Clément Molin
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@clement_molin
Les frappes ukrainiennes 🇺🇦 sur Moscou nous disent plusieurs choses :

🔹️Les ukrainiens ont largement rattrapé leur retard sur les drones à longue portée
🔹️La défense aérienne russe est défaillante, on parle de 120 systèmes de DA modernes et bien fournis en munitions tout autour de la ville en 4 couches, dont l'action est souvent sans résultat ou dangereuse.
🔹️L'aviation russe est globalement absente, la chasse russe est suffisamment nombreuse pour surveiller l'espace aérien, notamment Moscou mais aussi les autres villes et est pourtant invisible.
🔹️La raffinerie de Moscou était l'une des plus défendue du pays, depuis le début d'année, une raffinerie/un dépôt pétrolier est touché tous les 3 jours en moyenne.
🔹️La Russie a plus à perdre qu'à gagner dans la guerre. Les frappes sur l'Ukraine ne peuvent pas vraiment détruire plus l'économie ukrainienne qui est déjà largement en difficulté et soutenue par l'UE, mais les frappes sur la Russie ont une capacité presque infinie.
🔹️Le 24 février 2022, personne n'aurait imaginé que le 18 juin 2026, Moscou serait en feu après une 3ème nuit de frappes ukrainiennes consécutive avec des drones fabriqués en Ukraine.

↪️ En France, plusieurs personnalités s'opposent voire dénoncent ces frappes. Rappelons que les Ukrainiens sont frappés chaque nuit sur l'ensemble de leur territoire, ils ont donc pleinement le droit de riposter. Rappelons également que ces frappes ne constituent aucunement une escalade, puisque toutes les soit-disant escalades n'ont jamais rien donné. Rappelons enfin que Moscou est et reste l'unique responsable de la poursuite de la guerre, que toutes les négociations ont échoué à cause de la Russie et donc ces frappes sont un retour de bâton logique pour l'état agresseur.

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https://twitter.com/pic/ext_tw_video_thumb%2F2067828047617703936%2Fpu%2Fimg%2FJK-FUbrAPE4-TatJ.jpg

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Clément Molin
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@clement_molin
As expected, Russian 🇷🇺 forces are escorting key fuel trucks and protecting important road hubs with canon air-defense or drone interceptors teams.

At the same time, they are reinforcing key bridges leading to Crimea – which have been hit – with pontoon bridges, again as expected (quoted tweet).

What they cannot control are all the strikes targeting isolated fuel trucks, night strikes against convoys and smaller roads. This campaign forces Russian armies, which are already lacking men for assaults to use manpower far from the front to escort logistics.

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https://twitter.com/pic/ext_tw_video_thumb%2F2068005917988188161%2Fpu%2Fimg%2FpnsjSn41Il-ePbVd.jpg

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https://twitter.com/pic/ext_tw_video_thumb%2F2068005991958913024%2Fpu%2Fimg%2Fl06V5VVeKpc05v8o.jpg

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https://twitter.com/pic/ext_tw_video_thumb%2F2068006028810104832%2Fpu%2Fimg%2Fpvyhd-tniTB4v7GN.jpg

Cyber Boroshno (@cyber_boroshno)

Стан мостів на півдні окупованих територій: Армянськ, Генічеськ, Чонгар.

Актуально станом на 19.06.

Армянськ. Міст через Північнокримський канал, ймовірно, отримав критичні пошкодження - противник організував насипну переправу в обхід зруйнованої ділянки. На знімках добре видно велике скупчення вантажівок у черзі на в'їзд.

Генічеськ. Міст отримав ряд чуттєвих пошкоджень, рух організовано по одній смузі. У кадрі - тільки легковий транспорт, вантажівок не видно. Поруч противник кинув понтон як запасний маршрут.

Чонгар. Картина схожа: міст значно пошкоджений, одна смуга закрита на ремонт, проїзд відкритий лише для легковок. А ось логістика вантажівок - і військових, і цивільних - вже йде по сусідньому понтону.

І ще момент: біля Генічеська та Чонгара фіксуємо роботи зі спорудження насипних переправ за зразком Армянська. Це говорить саме за себе - противник готується до повної втрати штатних мостів і вже зараз будує дублюючу інфраструктуру.

Усі три артерії деградують, але повністю не перекриті: понтони й насипи тримають логістику на плаву ціною швидкості. Робота по цих вузлах і самих понтонах/насипах продовжує бити по спроможності угруповання на Херсонському та Кримському напрямках.
https://twitter.com/pic/media%2FHLLqNCKXMAAbFGY.jpg https://twitter.com/pic/media%2FHLLqNPrXoAAbWX0.jpg https://twitter.com/pic/media%2FHLLqNxJXQAAqX8n.jpg

— https://twitter.com/cyber_boroshno/status/2067972720185196648#m
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