@clement_molin
In June 2026, Russia 🇷🇺 launched 8 284 airstrikes, of which I managed to map 49%

This airstrike campaign is at the heart of Russian offensive strategy and one of the biggest challenge to the Ukrainian 🇺🇦 armed forces.

🧵THREAD🧵1/20 ⬇️
https://twitter.com/pic/media%2FHMOFj84XoAAacW2.jpg
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@clement_molin
With artillery and drones, airstrikes are the third phase of the Russian strike campaign.

These unguided bombs—the FAB-250, -500, -1000, and -1500—are fitted with a UMPK guidance kit and dropped from more than 50 km behind the front line.

Here you can see the results of those :
https://twitter.com/pic/media%2FHMOGVu7W4AApauc.jpg https://twitter.com/pic/media%2FHMOGbo8WIAEMLNu.jpg https://twitter.com/pic/media%2FHMOGhIeXkAADOda.jpg https://twitter.com/pic/media%2FHMOGp8HXIAEwnwm.jpg
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@clement_molin
The use of these guided bombs is steadily increasing, reaching a record high this month.

The accuracy of the FABs, which ranged from 10% to 30% last year (with "accuracy" defined as hitting something, such as a hedgerow, a village, or a forest), now stands at between 40% and 90%.
https://twitter.com/pic/media%2FHMOHsNJWAAADD0S.png
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@clement_molin
Here is my evaluation of the precision of those bombs in the different directions (it's easy to be precise in Izium or Sloviansk since they are targeting by forests).

Pokrovsk direction remains very unprecise, despite a recent improvement. I think it's linked to the possibility of installing jammers in cities.
https://twitter.com/pic/media%2FHMOIVphXwAAzl1p.jpg
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@clement_molin
Here is a comparison of geolocated strikes in May and June, including, others, the ones I couldn't find.

I've been looking between the Dnipro river and Lyman + recently Kupiansk.
https://twitter.com/pic/media%2FHMOJKzyXoAAYXyl.jpg https://twitter.com/pic/media%2FHMOJd8OXEAAq922.jpg
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@clement_molin
More interesting is the comparison of only geolocated ones in May and June with a large increase on the Vovocha frontline, which aims at stopping ukrainian advances in this direction as well as a new campaign in Kupiansk.
https://twitter.com/pic/media%2FHMOJlQLXoAEky_d.jpg https://twitter.com/pic/media%2FHMOJwFXXcAAR1nI.jpg
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@clement_molin
My pinned tweet since then was this one, showing russian airstrikes between Pokrovsk and Kostiantynivka, which showed where they wanted to attack.

Clément Molin (@clement_molin)

Between Pokrovsk and Kostiantynivka, I mapped 3 200 russian 🇷🇺 airstrikes in 3 months, including 1 400 new ones from july 11th to august 11th.

Russian airforce is launching massive strikes at ukrainian 🇺🇦position, supporting a large offensive.

🧵THREAD🧵1/23 ⬇️
https://twitter.com/pic/media%2FGyOoBnVXcAAYuBN.jpg

— https://twitter.com/clement_molin/status/1955602490994401453#m
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@clement_molin
On the map, here are all the airstrikes from June 2026, with a big concentration in Hulialpole and some strikes everywhere else.

Last year, when I did this work, I managed to predict all the russian offensive axes in Donbas.
https://twitter.com/pic/media%2FHMOKT1_W0AAAW0m.jpg
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