Clément Molin
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French Analyst, following the war in Ukraine and other conflicts
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Clément Molin
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@clement_molin
Another example yesterday with a russian soldier that showed his flag (even the ukrainian drone saw it) in a village behind the frontline.

It was so much behind that the Ukrainians were still moving in armoured vehicles inside and captured the guy.

Playfra (@Playfra0)

After the Russians recorded their usual propaganda flag videos in Kopani, Huljajpole direction, the Ukrainians entered it and recorded a video with their presence instead, then showing the captured Russian flagger.

It’s always like this: the flaggers enters a territory often not under control, record the video and then get either captured, eliminated, wounded or forced to retreat with absolutely no result: no gray zone, no red zone.

Is it surprising in this case? No. Kopani is literally in the close Ukrainian rear. It even seems like the Ukrainians entered it on a car, which says a lot already.

Please, never believe flag, not just Russian flags but also Ukrainian flags. They’re proof of nothing…

Video
https://twitter.com/pic/amplify_video_thumb%2F2072745000459173888%2Fimg%2FsPKZSAx9OAV_pojX.jpg


— https://twitter.com/Playfra0/status/2072745108089483297#m
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Clément Molin
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@clement_molin
The reality is that they are hitting UA targets everydays in the blue areas, which is far in front of those little flag ops.
https://twitter.com/pic/media%2FHMTtaW4XIAAhYpu.jpg
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Clément Molin
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@clement_molin
Russian 🇷🇺 VS Ukrainian 🇺🇦 mid/long range strikes since the start of the year mapped :

-> Count Shahed/Geran strikes (overwhelmingly)
-> Does not count missiles/short range strikes with FPV/Molniyah (fewer strikes)

-> Count Ukraine mid-range strikes
-> Does not count all long-range Ukrainian strikes

Ukrainian strikes are based on Geoconfirmed impacts only, Russian strikes are based on claims/media/telegram informations mainly. Russian chanels are not very helpful to know what was hit, but Ukrainian chanels say a lot.

-> Current Ukrainian 🇺🇦 priority : trucks, energies (mainly electricity and oil) and warehouses
-> Current Russian 🇷🇺 priority : warehouses, gas stations, electric substations.

Own work in collaboration with @ShahedTracker for Russian strikes.
https://twitter.com/pic/media%2FHMUkopkW8AAc2DM.jpg
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Clément Molin
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@clement_molin
According to recent satellite images, the Ukrainian 🇺🇦counter-attack in the Komar direction continues

Based on airstrike analysis, Russian forces were pushed back in the whole northern part, close to the Vovocha river. They still hold the forest near Filia (which is between Ivanivka and Novopavlivka) but lost nearly all their infiltrators in both towns which are under Ukrainian control.

With the importance of artillery and airstrikes (~30 in the area), we can confirm Russia lost control over the situation and the main forces remains behind the Mokri Yali river. Southwards, the Ukrainians entered Piddubne and there are some rumours about Myrne, that I was unable to confirm. For now, Komar is 100% Russian controled.

Interestingly, there are massive airstrikes targeting north and west of the Vovocha river, with Russia attempting to target Ukrainian drone teams, artillery positions and roads used by Ukrainian infantry to reach the area.

On the other hand, Russian infiltrations and so called "flag operations" continue in the area (videos in Iskra), to give an illusion of control to the command. We will probably get a more precise picture in the coming weeks, with more videos from the area, so I kept for now a large grey zone, but consider areas with red points as high Ukrainian infiltrators presence.
https://twitter.com/pic/media%2FHMZe-yfWMAAb3Yz.jpg
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Clément Molin
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@clement_molin
We are talking about this area of the front, to give a bigger picture to everyone. This is one of the multiple Ukrainian counter-attacks slowly ongoing.
https://twitter.com/pic/media%2FHMZgDz5WAAAZ2pC.jpg
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Clément Molin
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@clement_molin
J'ai regardé la moitié des matchs de la Coupe du monde et ce qu'il s'est passé hier est un scandale qui n'est pas si surprenant.

Il y a une véritable mafia à la tête de la FIFA. Hier, plus de 12 fautes non sifflées, 0 carton jaune pour le Paraguay malgré au moins 3 fautes valant rouge (le joueur qui saute volontairement sur Maignan, l'attentat sur Rabiot et la baffe à Mbappé), pendant que les Bleus prennent 3 jaunes dont 2 sont injustifiés. Les joueurs paraguayens ont été odieux et ont salis l'image du sport et de leur pays.

La VAR n'a été appelée que pour le penalty qui était tellement visible (sous les yeux de l'arbitre…) qu'il était impossible de cacher (faut voir la tête d'Infantino quand Mbappé a marqué) et l'arbitrage a été scandaleux, de la part des 3 Ouzbeks et 2 Qataris.

Difficile de savoir à qui bénéficient ces scandales à répétition, mais un pays revient souvent, l'Argentine, et l'agressivité d'un continent n'est pas punie, l'Amérique latine. En 2022, le match contre les Pays-Bas était clairement arbitré dans un sens et la finale contre la France était un enchaînement d'agressivité et d'insultes non punies. Il y a 2 jours, le Cap Vert s'est lui aussi fait voler sur plusieurs actions face à cette même Argentine, avec Infantino ne cachant même plus qu'il soutient l'Albiceleste…

Je ne suis pas expert de la géopolitique du foot, mais on sait qu'il y a des affaires quand à l'attribution des coupes du monde 2018, 2022, 2026 et 2034. Personne n'est aveugle face à ces scandales et au déroulement actuel de la Coupe du Monde. La FIFA salit l'image de notre sport (j'y joue depuis 10 ans) et c'est dommage pour le foot.

En tout cas, je soutiens la France d'abord et les outsiders (Mexique/Norvège) ensuite et j'espère que l'horrible Argentine sera battue et que le Paraguay tombera dans les oubliettes de l'histoire.

Video
https://twitter.com/pic/ext_tw_video_thumb%2F2073793717438205952%2Fpu%2Fimg%2F6PNakk9WtvmbpU9B.jpg

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Clément Molin
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@clement_molin
As a response to the Ukrainian 🇺🇦 Mid-range strikes targeting trucks, electric substations, rear bases and logistics, Russia 🇷🇺 is also hitting numerous targets.

Russia is mainly using Geran and Gerbera drones, with sometimes mid-range drones (not very often and not too deep) to strike Ukrainian logistics. Since early June, they hit 52 gas station (probably around 70) everywhere on the frontline and far behind, to complicate Ukrainian logistics on large roads. Ukraine did the same with many gas stations in occupied territories.

Russia is also hitting trucks and vehicles, but with less success than Ukraine and mainly with operator guided Geran drones, which are much more costly and less numerous for these missions. Some key roads leading to Donbas or near the border are threatened and the situation needs to be adressed. For months, Russia has been hitting very hard Ukrainian electricity grid, but it's now the Ukrainian turn to do that.

Dozens of electric substations have been hit in Crimea (80% of the peninsula is witouth electricity) and in occupied territories, with the operation ongoing. I will later publish a map of these strikes.

This shows how Russia can adapt, what are the consequences of these strikes and what are the threats for future months.
https://twitter.com/pic/media%2FHMjLpsdW0AIbmS0.jpg https://twitter.com/pic/media%2FHMjNIZAWMAE8tOi.jpg https://twitter.com/pic/media%2FHMjNLCiWIAAYpb8.jpg https://twitter.com/pic/media%2FHMjNU0EXQAAykyr.jpg
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Clément Molin
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@clement_molin
Personne ne verra ces images, personne ne manifestera devant l'ambassade russe et personne ne s'indignera des actions de la Russie dans la 5ème année d'une guerre inutile qui a tué un million d'européens.
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