@clement_molin
La guerre au Moyen-Orient revient toutes les semaines puis est éclipsée par un cessez-le feu qui dure quelque jours.

Il n'en reste que ce fut une incroyable erreur de l'administration américaine...

OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical)

Bahrain has come under attack from Iran again this morning, with air raid sirens going off at the moment.
https://twitter.com/pic/media%2FHNAFUIZWcAAZxuU.png

— https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/2076165448979099681#m
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@clement_molin
The situation of the Novopavlivka-Ivanivka front is currently the most difficult for Russian 🇷🇺 forces

🔹After months of infiltrations, often covered by OPSEC, the Ukrainians 🇺🇦 liberated a bunch of villages and cleared both Ivanivka and Novopavlivka from previous infiltrations. In this area, around 55 km2 of grey zone are most likely under Ukrainian control, as per high FAB strikes number.

🔹The main Russian problem is logistical. All roads leading to the area are exposed and under fire. The only places used for accumulation are Bahatyr (completly destroyed) and Komar (partially destroyed, hit by Ukrainian airstrikes). After these villages, Russian infantry still need to walk on foot, on open roads from 5 to 10 km to reach "frontline" villages and positions before assaults.

🔹Recent videos showed multiple casualties after Russian infantry were sent across the Vovcha (Bahatyr-Ivanivka), Solena (Novopavlivka) and Mokri Yali (Komar) river. Despite these losses, Russian infantry is still tasked to attack the New Donbas Line section between Novopavlivka and Ivanivka (they need to cross 2 rivers and 3 ditches), which is suicidal, knowing they have been attacking here for 10 months !)

🔹Russian "flaggers" continue to be sighted in Iskra, further west, in an attempt from the 90th tank division to show they control the situation to their command. Regularly on Telegram, Russian bloggers complain about the risk of Ukrainian entrance in Komar, since fighting have been happening in Piddubne for weeks. The situation is not very good for the 29th CAA in this sector, but the danger of further explotation is limited due to rivers.

🔹Ukraine deployed 3 air assault brigades (79th, 80th, 95th) in the direction to push back russian forces behind the Mokri Yali river and further reinforce their lines in the sector. This also gives more losses for Russia forces. The main challenge is the large number of airstrikes falling on their positions. If airstrikes decreased in Hulialpole, they slightly increased here recently, including more than 50 in the large yellow perimeter on the map, inside the grey zone between Komar and Ivanivka.

🔹With Novopavlivka under Ukrainian control and Ivanivka secured, the UAF can move south to pressure and trap russians attempting to attack the New Donbas Line fortified section. But it is probably much more interesting to keep the situation as it is currently, since this is an open kill zone for tens or hundreds of Russians every month. For further exploitation, the Komar/Velika Novosilka directions are much more interesting in order to further slow down or postpone Russian offensive momentum in Hulialpole.

For this situation review, I used @AndrewPerpetua base map and @WarUnitObserver observations about unit deployment.
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@clement_molin
See how they never explain why 10 Turks, 19 Moroccans, 12 Senegalese, 15 Tunisians or 9 Iraqis are not born and trained in « their » country

French team (and slowly other teams) is reflecting demographics (+ overseas territories) and only French people can talk and act about it.

Sir Goodman (@sirgoodmn)

Fransa’nın Dünya Kupası Kadrosu Gerçek Ülkeleri İçin Oynasaydı🇫🇷

Video
https://twitter.com/pic/amplify_video_thumb%2F2076202107183517696%2Fimg%2FiEz8StsmVbcJ5cFD.jpg

— https://twitter.com/sirgoodmn/status/2076202177018703898#m
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@clement_molin
Happy to be in Kyiv 🇺🇦 for the first time !

Feel free to text me if you are here !
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@clement_molin
Très fier de la démonstration de force de l'armée française 🇫🇷, qui prouve une fois de plus qu'on peut compter sur elle.

Vive la France et gloire à l'armée ! 🇫🇷🇫🇷🇫🇷
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@clement_molin
If the situation in the south recently improved, it continues to worsen in the Donbas, especially on the Sloviansk front.

Russian 🇷🇺 forces continue to push west after they took Siversk (7 months ago) and have down nearly half of the path leading to Siversk. The current situation is not very good for Ukraine 🇺🇦 in this direction.

🔹With Siversk, Soledar and Bakhmut, Russian forces have a very good accumulation possibility, reinforced by the large Donbas industrial and mining complexes. It is therefore easier to have troops ready for assault at any moment. Their logistics are hit very hard, especially before entering Siversk or Soledar (mid-range strikes), but it's obviously not enough to slow the momentum.

🔹On the other hand, the Ukrainian logistical situation is slowly degrading. Sloviansk and Kramatorsk are being hit daily, the Sloviansk-Mykolaivka roads are under constant fire and this also threatens roads for Lyman, on the other side of the river. The Ukrainians increasingly rely on UGVs for their logistics in this direction.

🔹Russian purpose is clearly to take control of Mykolaivka before the end of the year, as well as the heights around Rai Oleksandrivka, to be able to target logistics entering Sloviansk and launch the battle for the city next year. We can see this with the intense air-strike campaign ongoing all around Mykolaivka. Russian infiltrations are quite deep and part of the grey zone is under their control.

🔹Recently, Russian forces started to pressure Kramatorsk with infiltreations are flag raising west of the Donets Canal, which serves as the main fortification line in the region (white arrows west of the blue line). Russians have been sighted in multiple villages there, but it is not yet critical, as they didn't consolidate their control there. The risk is that they can secure crossing and threaten Kramatorsk from the East.

This situation remains the most difficult for Ukrainian forces, this is where they lost the biggest amount of territory this year. From Kostiantynivka to here is the main offensive action currently being taken by Russians.

Map base : @M0nstas
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@clement_molin
Since the start of the year, Ukraine 🇺🇦 hit 200 Russian 🇷🇺air-defense and radar systems

On this map, you can see where those systems have been targeted, more than half have been geolocated and the other half is mapped according to @414magyarbirds video. Around half of the systems have been destroyed, the other half is damaged and we should count around 10% decoy.

In total, more than 125 air-defense systems and 75 radars have been hit by Ukrainian drones this year alone, in particular in the south and in Crimea.
https://twitter.com/pic/media%2FHNQMFBDWEAA-B7H.jpg
414 Magyar's Birds (@414magyarbirds)

Magyar's update on the Air Defense Fall by the USF Birds:

32 air defense systems engaged in June.
195 since the beginning of the year.

The skies over the swamps and Crimea must stay clear of the worms' air defense systems.

Eyes and Sting—the worms’ worst nightmare.

USF online scoreboard “PIDRAKHUIKA”
sbs-group.army

MAGYAR 🇺🇦
04.07.26

Video
https://twitter.com/pic/amplify_video_thumb%2F2073427081300529152%2Fimg%2Ft2IH3NoA7Kku36n3.jpg

— https://twitter.com/414magyarbirds/status/2073427952990085343#m
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@clement_molin
I'm sharing @SebaGobert thoughts here, following Fedorov's removal from the MOD.

To make it simple, Fedorov did a lot of good reforms for the Army, even if he was not universally popular. He was by far the most popular minister, respected both at home and abroad. His reforms, in particular, brought about a real revolution in the purchase and use of drones.

Even if he wasn't perfect, he long resisted certain lobbying groups and the "deep state" that have a detrimental influence on the country.

Yet today, another faction has won: the one that sends recruits to assault divisions, that micromanages the situation instead of looking at the big picture, that oversees violent recruitment, and that is corrupting the country. It must be said, but the president bears a significant share of the responsibility for the country's situation since 2023, having authoritatively dismissed certain popular figures.

The silence of the Europeans (either they don't see it, or they don't want to see it) is quite distressing, given that they could at least demand transparency...

There is no way this will reinforce Zelensky's popularity and there is no way this will help Ukraine... We will soon see the reactions and I will try to observe those.

Sébastien Gobert (@SebaGobert)

Mikhaylo Fedorov démis de ses fonctions de ministre de la Défense, six mois après sa nomination. Crédité des progrès de la numérisation des services publics depuis 2019 et de sa politique active de dronisation, il avait initié une série de réformes au ministère 1/
https://twitter.com/pic/media%2FHNSctYvXoAAUIB_.jpg

— https://twitter.com/SebaGobert/status/2077461152435462332#m
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@clement_molin
Who would think that creating new brigades with no personnel, torturing soldiers who refuse to go with corrupt and incompetent officers, firing everyone that is competent and opposed to the boss would win the war ?
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@clement_molin
Cette journée en Ukraine 🇺🇦 fut vraiment intéressante de mon point de vue extérieur, avec notamment ces deux manifestations spontanées dans la capitale.

Comme je l'ai expliqué hier, le licenciement de Mykhaïlo Fedorov est très impopulaire en Ukraine, même si tout le monde n'accrochait pas avec son côté très "tech, drones, robots..."

L'ultra-majorité des experts, soldats, civils... rencontrés m'ont expliqué les mêmes raisons. Il y a une double lutte interne, d'abord Zelensky qui cherche à maintenir le contrôle sur ses ministres et éviter leur prise de popularité et ensuite les luttes entre clans. Et c'est ensuite aussi une histoire d'influence, c'est historiquement le cas en Ukraine (et moins en Russie, puisque le pouvoir contrôle tout et fait son propre clientélisme), mais aussi dans pleins d'Etats occidentaux, là ou c'est juste un peu moins visible et direct : certains clans, groupes, individus ont des intérêts économiques/politiques particuliers qui s'opposent à ceux d'autres. D'où le conflit qui trainait entre Fedorov et Syrkyi, les deux demandant la démission de l'autre.

En réalité, vous avez deux stratégies militaires qui s'opposent entre les deux hommes :

🔹Fedorov avait une approche de "start-up" pour le MOD, avec le système de points, les récompenses et une dronisation/robotisation accrue. Il souhaitait en particulier cela pour relâcher les pressions de la conscription (qui en réalité ne dépend pas de fait de lui).
🔹Syrkyi a une approche bien plus soviétique, avec une mobilisation de force (qui dépend de ses hommes, même s'il a essayé de faire reposer la responsabilité sur le MOD) mobilisation obligatoire, violente, sans scrupules), l'emploi de forces d'assauts et une doctrine d'engagement beaucoup plus centralisé.

Dans les deux cas, chacun a raison sur un point : les drones ne peuvent pas gagner seuls et la mobilisation est nécessaire, mais la stratégie de Syrkyi ne fait pas l'unanimité. On m'a confié que Syrkyi est un mélange de ce qu'il y a de mauvais dans les doctrines militaires soviétiques et occidentales. Il aime micro-manager des unités, diriger les opérations, notamment celles de ses unités d'assauts, son armée personnelle, sans grande gestion de l'impact stratégique du conflit.

Voir les ukrainiens manifester à deux reprises dans la capitale et de nombreuses autres villes et voir leur engagement politique malgré la guerre montre bien que l'Ukraine reste une démocratie, qui fonctionne. Le parlement n'a pas voté le nouveau ministre porté par Zelensky, ce qui prouve de surcroit que les leviers politiques continuent d'exister.

Soyons clairs, ces manifestations ne demandent pas à l'Ukraine de se rendre, elles ne montrent pas que la situation de l'Ukraine est mauvaise ou catastrophique, au contraire, ce serait ne pas comprendre les dynamiques ! Ces manifestations montrent des ukrainiens conscients des progrès réalisés depuis plusieurs mois, notamment par Fedorov et de la nécessité de poursuivre sur cette politique, avec un rejet des méthodes du CEMA, dans un contexte d'affaires morbides qui entourent son commandement, comme nous le savons depuis longtemps.
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