Clément Molin
Photo
@clement_molin
In 2026, Ukraine 🇺🇦 dug more than 3 800 km of fortifications across the country. For the 1st time since 2022, the state of fortifications is satisfying.
With heavy defensive work done in Zaporizhzhia and Dnipropetrovsk oblasts, Ukraine managed to finish the work on the main front. Thus, everywhere on the front is currently less than 15km from the New Donbass Line, this new kind of defensive line that replaced previous fortifications in 2025.
Russia reached only 3 sections of the New Donbass Line, in Kucheriv Yar, where the line helped to prevent a further breakthrough and in Novopavlivka, where the line, unfinished, held for 10 months and is not on the frontline anymore thanks to Ukrainian counter-attacks. There is however one area where a fortified line is currently being reached : in Shevchenko, south of Dobropillia.
To explain what will be interesting about this, you have first to know that this is the very first section that was completed in the "NDL" style. This section appears quite good but I believe roads are not correctly covered (the road cover appeared later) and Russian infiltrators will be able to go through. However, the aim of this line is to force Russian troops on key roads where they will be under fire and will suffer losses. I will closely monitor everything that will happen around this area.
As you can see in red on the map (2026 fortifications), Ukraine dug a large number of new ditches near Sloviansk and Kramatorsk, without any strategy, in order to complicate as much as possible the entrance into these cities from the east, the south or the north. Further west are standing 2 defensive lines (dug in 2025) and a third one is being completed.
I have no word to describe the scale of the work that is being finished on the central part of this Donets-Dnipro front (Pavlohrad direction). A real kill zone with squares is being set up every 5km, treelines are being destroyed in front of every line to avoid the ennemy from having any cover and the roads are being protected. Pavlohrad, Dnipro and Zaporizhzhia rings are being finished, which also shows Ukraine is willing to fortify big cities, even far from the front.
In general in this eastern/southern front, there is no room for any manoeuver farther than 10km from the front. This is the amount of territory Ukraine is allowing itself to loose if the goes on furthern than 2028.
I will later quote this tweet with some zoom on key sections, focus elsewhere on the front and some views of some incredibly big barbed wire coverage !
https://twitter.com/pic/media%2FHOlfJ_UWcAA0jHy.jpg
tweet
In 2026, Ukraine 🇺🇦 dug more than 3 800 km of fortifications across the country. For the 1st time since 2022, the state of fortifications is satisfying.
With heavy defensive work done in Zaporizhzhia and Dnipropetrovsk oblasts, Ukraine managed to finish the work on the main front. Thus, everywhere on the front is currently less than 15km from the New Donbass Line, this new kind of defensive line that replaced previous fortifications in 2025.
Russia reached only 3 sections of the New Donbass Line, in Kucheriv Yar, where the line helped to prevent a further breakthrough and in Novopavlivka, where the line, unfinished, held for 10 months and is not on the frontline anymore thanks to Ukrainian counter-attacks. There is however one area where a fortified line is currently being reached : in Shevchenko, south of Dobropillia.
To explain what will be interesting about this, you have first to know that this is the very first section that was completed in the "NDL" style. This section appears quite good but I believe roads are not correctly covered (the road cover appeared later) and Russian infiltrators will be able to go through. However, the aim of this line is to force Russian troops on key roads where they will be under fire and will suffer losses. I will closely monitor everything that will happen around this area.
As you can see in red on the map (2026 fortifications), Ukraine dug a large number of new ditches near Sloviansk and Kramatorsk, without any strategy, in order to complicate as much as possible the entrance into these cities from the east, the south or the north. Further west are standing 2 defensive lines (dug in 2025) and a third one is being completed.
I have no word to describe the scale of the work that is being finished on the central part of this Donets-Dnipro front (Pavlohrad direction). A real kill zone with squares is being set up every 5km, treelines are being destroyed in front of every line to avoid the ennemy from having any cover and the roads are being protected. Pavlohrad, Dnipro and Zaporizhzhia rings are being finished, which also shows Ukraine is willing to fortify big cities, even far from the front.
In general in this eastern/southern front, there is no room for any manoeuver farther than 10km from the front. This is the amount of territory Ukraine is allowing itself to loose if the goes on furthern than 2028.
I will later quote this tweet with some zoom on key sections, focus elsewhere on the front and some views of some incredibly big barbed wire coverage !
https://twitter.com/pic/media%2FHOlfJ_UWcAA0jHy.jpg
tweet
👍14❤5🙏2
Clément Molin
Photo
@clement_molin
In the fields of eastern Ukraine 🇺🇦, the defenses are looking like an endless chessboard. Fortifications are creating separate squares which are as much kill zones as possible.
This strategy is being expanded elsewhere in Ukraine and is efficient, if one square is lost, all the other ones around will be able to turn it into a death zone.
https://twitter.com/pic/media%2FHOoLmMJXEAALzm8.jpg
Clément Molin (@clement_molin)
In 2026, Ukraine 🇺🇦 dug more than 3 800 km of fortifications across the country. For the 1st time since 2022, the state of fortifications is satisfying.
With heavy defensive work done in Zaporizhzhia and Dnipropetrovsk oblasts, Ukraine managed to finish the work on the main front. Thus, everywhere on the front is currently less than 15km from the New Donbass Line, this new kind of defensive line that replaced previous fortifications in 2025.
Russia reached only 3 sections of the New Donbass Line, in Kucheriv Yar, where the line helped to prevent a further breakthrough and in Novopavlivka, where the line, unfinished, held for 10 months and is not on the frontline anymore thanks to Ukrainian counter-attacks. There is however one area where a fortified line is currently being reached : in Shevchenko, south of Dobropillia.
To explain what will be interesting about this, you have first to know that this is the very first section that was completed in the "NDL" style. This section appears quite good but I believe roads are not correctly covered (the road cover appeared later) and Russian infiltrators will be able to go through. However, the aim of this line is to force Russian troops on key roads where they will be under fire and will suffer losses. I will closely monitor everything that will happen around this area.
As you can see in red on the map (2026 fortifications), Ukraine dug a large number of new ditches near Sloviansk and Kramatorsk, without any strategy, in order to complicate as much as possible the entrance into these cities from the east, the south or the north. Further west are standing 2 defensive lines (dug in 2025) and a third one is being completed.
I have no word to describe the scale of the work that is being finished on the central part of this Donets-Dnipro front (Pavlohrad direction). A real kill zone with squares is being set up every 5km, treelines are being destroyed in front of every line to avoid the ennemy from having any cover and the roads are being protected. Pavlohrad, Dnipro and Zaporizhzhia rings are being finished, which also shows Ukraine is willing to fortify big cities, even far from the front.
In general in this eastern/southern front, there is no room for any manoeuver farther than 10km from the front. This is the amount of territory Ukraine is allowing itself to loose if the goes on furthern than 2028.
I will later quote this tweet with some zoom on key sections, focus elsewhere on the front and some views of some incredibly big barbed wire coverage !
https://twitter.com/pic/media%2FHOlfJ_UWcAA0jHy.jpg
— https://twitter.com/clement_molin/status/2083307310345048232#m
tweet
In the fields of eastern Ukraine 🇺🇦, the defenses are looking like an endless chessboard. Fortifications are creating separate squares which are as much kill zones as possible.
This strategy is being expanded elsewhere in Ukraine and is efficient, if one square is lost, all the other ones around will be able to turn it into a death zone.
https://twitter.com/pic/media%2FHOoLmMJXEAALzm8.jpg
Clément Molin (@clement_molin)
In 2026, Ukraine 🇺🇦 dug more than 3 800 km of fortifications across the country. For the 1st time since 2022, the state of fortifications is satisfying.
With heavy defensive work done in Zaporizhzhia and Dnipropetrovsk oblasts, Ukraine managed to finish the work on the main front. Thus, everywhere on the front is currently less than 15km from the New Donbass Line, this new kind of defensive line that replaced previous fortifications in 2025.
Russia reached only 3 sections of the New Donbass Line, in Kucheriv Yar, where the line helped to prevent a further breakthrough and in Novopavlivka, where the line, unfinished, held for 10 months and is not on the frontline anymore thanks to Ukrainian counter-attacks. There is however one area where a fortified line is currently being reached : in Shevchenko, south of Dobropillia.
To explain what will be interesting about this, you have first to know that this is the very first section that was completed in the "NDL" style. This section appears quite good but I believe roads are not correctly covered (the road cover appeared later) and Russian infiltrators will be able to go through. However, the aim of this line is to force Russian troops on key roads where they will be under fire and will suffer losses. I will closely monitor everything that will happen around this area.
As you can see in red on the map (2026 fortifications), Ukraine dug a large number of new ditches near Sloviansk and Kramatorsk, without any strategy, in order to complicate as much as possible the entrance into these cities from the east, the south or the north. Further west are standing 2 defensive lines (dug in 2025) and a third one is being completed.
I have no word to describe the scale of the work that is being finished on the central part of this Donets-Dnipro front (Pavlohrad direction). A real kill zone with squares is being set up every 5km, treelines are being destroyed in front of every line to avoid the ennemy from having any cover and the roads are being protected. Pavlohrad, Dnipro and Zaporizhzhia rings are being finished, which also shows Ukraine is willing to fortify big cities, even far from the front.
In general in this eastern/southern front, there is no room for any manoeuver farther than 10km from the front. This is the amount of territory Ukraine is allowing itself to loose if the goes on furthern than 2028.
I will later quote this tweet with some zoom on key sections, focus elsewhere on the front and some views of some incredibly big barbed wire coverage !
https://twitter.com/pic/media%2FHOlfJ_UWcAA0jHy.jpg
— https://twitter.com/clement_molin/status/2083307310345048232#m
tweet
❤10🙏3👍2
Clément Molin
Photo
@clement_molin
In July, Ukrainian 🇺🇦 unmanned forces hit 656 trucks across occupied territories, some of which are in this video
At the same time, Russia 🇷🇺 captured around 30 km2 and launched a record number of airstrikes. Here are the key numbers of this month :
🧵THREAD🧵1/15 ⬇️
Video
https://twitter.com/pic/amplify_video_thumb%2F2083577080931811328%2Fimg%2FXFx3B7_d0eMzEjhj.jpg
tweet
In July, Ukrainian 🇺🇦 unmanned forces hit 656 trucks across occupied territories, some of which are in this video
At the same time, Russia 🇷🇺 captured around 30 km2 and launched a record number of airstrikes. Here are the key numbers of this month :
🧵THREAD🧵1/15 ⬇️
Video
https://twitter.com/pic/amplify_video_thumb%2F2083577080931811328%2Fimg%2FXFx3B7_d0eMzEjhj.jpg
tweet
❤3🙏1🤡1
@clement_molin
Outside of cities, the infiltrations tactics have proven their limits when Ukraine uses an active defense. In Hulialpole, it managed to stop Russian momentum.
One thing Ukraine lacks : airstrikes, to counter Russian drone teams and accumulation in cities.
tweet
Outside of cities, the infiltrations tactics have proven their limits when Ukraine uses an active defense. In Hulialpole, it managed to stop Russian momentum.
One thing Ukraine lacks : airstrikes, to counter Russian drone teams and accumulation in cities.
tweet
X (formerly Twitter)
Clément Molin (@clement_molin) on X
20 ans, Lyon 🇫🇷, étudiant en Relations Internationales à Lille, cartes, analyses, suivi des conflits armés et de l'actualité internationale.
😢6👍4
@clement_molin
Thank you for following, I will in the next few days write a much bigger analysis.
This will arrive after my thread in french on the Black Sea war, my update on airstrikes and the end of my frontline review (I did Komar, Lyman, Sloviansk and Kostiantynivka).
Thank you !
tweet
Thank you for following, I will in the next few days write a much bigger analysis.
This will arrive after my thread in french on the Black Sea war, my update on airstrikes and the end of my frontline review (I did Komar, Lyman, Sloviansk and Kostiantynivka).
Thank you !
tweet
X (formerly Twitter)
Clément Molin (@clement_molin) on X
20 ans, Lyon 🇫🇷, étudiant en Relations Internationales à Lille, cartes, analyses, suivi des conflits armés et de l'actualité internationale.
👍14
Clément Molin
Photo
@clement_molin
Le plus grand danger pour bon nombre d'Etats d'Europe Centrale et Orientale à l'heure actuelle n'est pas la Russie, c'est leur démographie !
Si l'effondrement démographique ukrainien à l'heure actuelle est massif, il s'explique notamment par l'exil de millions de jeunes ukrainiennes. Pour l'Ukraine, l'avenir démographique est noir, le pays aura bientôt moins de naissances que le Kirghizistan.
Mais la situation ailleurs n'est guère mieux. Avec à peine 4 000 naissances en 6 mois, l'Estonie est un de ces Etats qui se dirige vers une réduction massive de sa population à l'horizon 2050 puis 2100. Une situation similaire peut être observée en Lituanie, Lettonie, Pologne et dans de nombreux autres Etats de la région, y compris dans les Balkans (le problème est mondial et touche plus certaines régions à l'heure actuelle). Un exemple assez parlant, la Macédoine du Nord :
Dans ce pays, l'émigration des jeunes restreint les perspectives démographiques tandis que la minorité albanaise (environ 30% de la population) représente désormais presque 40% des naissances, bien qu'elle ne soit présente que dans une petite région du nord-ouest. Et bien c'est la même chose ailleurs. Les populations locales diminuent, les minorités ethniques prennent de l'ampleur, en particulier lorsqu'un Etat a eu recours à l'immigration, ce qui créé des problèmes sociaux, économiques et identitaires dans de nombreux cas.
Pour l'Europe Centrale et Orientale, le problème est triple, il y a une baisse des naissances, une émigration des jeunes et une perspective de guerre avec la Russie (exemple pour l'Ukraine) qui sont un tout négatif. Pour cette raison, c'est une très bonne chose que la Pologne s'enrichisse et devienne une puissance économique régionale. Les jeunes des pays voisins ne rêveront plus de l'Allemagne, du Royaume-Uni ou des Etats-Unis, mais de cette Pologne, bien plus proche de leurs Etats de naissance. Pour la démographie, par contre, il n'y a aucun remède, le problème me semble lié à l'émergence des réseaux sociaux et à l'urbanisation accrue du monde.
Seul point positif ? Un léger rebond de la natalité au premier semestre 2026, mais sera-t-il durable ?
https://twitter.com/pic/media%2FHOqXDKOWsAAQ6Nb.jpg
tweet
Le plus grand danger pour bon nombre d'Etats d'Europe Centrale et Orientale à l'heure actuelle n'est pas la Russie, c'est leur démographie !
Si l'effondrement démographique ukrainien à l'heure actuelle est massif, il s'explique notamment par l'exil de millions de jeunes ukrainiennes. Pour l'Ukraine, l'avenir démographique est noir, le pays aura bientôt moins de naissances que le Kirghizistan.
Mais la situation ailleurs n'est guère mieux. Avec à peine 4 000 naissances en 6 mois, l'Estonie est un de ces Etats qui se dirige vers une réduction massive de sa population à l'horizon 2050 puis 2100. Une situation similaire peut être observée en Lituanie, Lettonie, Pologne et dans de nombreux autres Etats de la région, y compris dans les Balkans (le problème est mondial et touche plus certaines régions à l'heure actuelle). Un exemple assez parlant, la Macédoine du Nord :
Dans ce pays, l'émigration des jeunes restreint les perspectives démographiques tandis que la minorité albanaise (environ 30% de la population) représente désormais presque 40% des naissances, bien qu'elle ne soit présente que dans une petite région du nord-ouest. Et bien c'est la même chose ailleurs. Les populations locales diminuent, les minorités ethniques prennent de l'ampleur, en particulier lorsqu'un Etat a eu recours à l'immigration, ce qui créé des problèmes sociaux, économiques et identitaires dans de nombreux cas.
Pour l'Europe Centrale et Orientale, le problème est triple, il y a une baisse des naissances, une émigration des jeunes et une perspective de guerre avec la Russie (exemple pour l'Ukraine) qui sont un tout négatif. Pour cette raison, c'est une très bonne chose que la Pologne s'enrichisse et devienne une puissance économique régionale. Les jeunes des pays voisins ne rêveront plus de l'Allemagne, du Royaume-Uni ou des Etats-Unis, mais de cette Pologne, bien plus proche de leurs Etats de naissance. Pour la démographie, par contre, il n'y a aucun remède, le problème me semble lié à l'émergence des réseaux sociaux et à l'urbanisation accrue du monde.
Seul point positif ? Un léger rebond de la natalité au premier semestre 2026, mais sera-t-il durable ?
https://twitter.com/pic/media%2FHOqXDKOWsAAQ6Nb.jpg
tweet
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Clément Molin
Photo
@clement_molin
A few days ago, Russian 🇷🇺 FAB air-guided bombs fell on the city of Pavlohrad, in the Dnipropetrovsk oblast.
This city is more than 80 km from the frontline and more than 150 km from the launching point, which gives a very long range to these bombs.
How did they manage to hit that far? I believe this is the new UMPB-5R kit that allows the bomb to fly up to 150 km or more. This is a real game changer if rear bases, command posts, and stabilization points can be easily targeted, as well as large cities.
I happened to see FABs falling on Zaporijjia two weeks ago, and this is a very destructive and scary weapon that really is a massive help for Russia. Ukraine still didn't find any means to counter these strikes.
Video
https://twitter.com/pic/amplify_video_thumb%2F2083700400968859648%2Fimg%2F07RARWMNg3nmsYsa.jpg
tweet
A few days ago, Russian 🇷🇺 FAB air-guided bombs fell on the city of Pavlohrad, in the Dnipropetrovsk oblast.
This city is more than 80 km from the frontline and more than 150 km from the launching point, which gives a very long range to these bombs.
How did they manage to hit that far? I believe this is the new UMPB-5R kit that allows the bomb to fly up to 150 km or more. This is a real game changer if rear bases, command posts, and stabilization points can be easily targeted, as well as large cities.
I happened to see FABs falling on Zaporijjia two weeks ago, and this is a very destructive and scary weapon that really is a massive help for Russia. Ukraine still didn't find any means to counter these strikes.
Video
https://twitter.com/pic/amplify_video_thumb%2F2083700400968859648%2Fimg%2F07RARWMNg3nmsYsa.jpg
tweet
🙏11❤3👎1🔥1
Clément Molin
Photo
@clement_molin
Cette zone géographique devient peu à peu le « triangle des drones », entre Ukraine 🇺🇦, Russie 🇷🇺 et Turquie 🇹🇷
🔹L'Ukraine 🇺🇦 est spécialisée dans une vaste gamme de drones à bas coût, les FPV, les bombardiers, les drones de moyenne et longue portée à voilure fixe. Ces technologies sont assez peu couteuses (elles le seront plus à l'export) mais très efficaces. N'oublions pas également les drones intercepteurs, les UGV et les USV.
🔹La Russie 🇷🇺 est spécialisée dans une production concentrée et massive. Elle dispose de moins de modèles, mais a une production rationalisée. Le drone Geran deviendra probablement le moyen de frappe prisé par de nombreux Etats ne pouvant pas se permettre d'acheter des missiles. Les technologies de Lancet, Molniyah ou FPV russes seront aussi des atouts.
🔹La Turquie 🇹🇷 reste le leader mondial de l'exportation des drones MALES. Si le pays a pris du retard sur les autres technologies de drones (comme tout le monde), il reste très avancé dans les technologies avancées, notamment avec l'Akinci. Les drones turcs ont prouvé leur efficacité dans de nombreux conflits assymétrique, en particulier en Afrique.
En fin de compte, ce triangle du drone est complémentaire et sera, après guerre, un HUB majeur d'export des technologies sans pilotes à travers le monde. D'un côté, une large gamme de systèmes peu couteux, de l'autre une masse de production efficace et enfin un leader à l'heure actuelle de l'exportation de technologies avancées.
https://twitter.com/pic/media%2FHOtSdpUWgAA9wEt.png
tweet
Cette zone géographique devient peu à peu le « triangle des drones », entre Ukraine 🇺🇦, Russie 🇷🇺 et Turquie 🇹🇷
🔹L'Ukraine 🇺🇦 est spécialisée dans une vaste gamme de drones à bas coût, les FPV, les bombardiers, les drones de moyenne et longue portée à voilure fixe. Ces technologies sont assez peu couteuses (elles le seront plus à l'export) mais très efficaces. N'oublions pas également les drones intercepteurs, les UGV et les USV.
🔹La Russie 🇷🇺 est spécialisée dans une production concentrée et massive. Elle dispose de moins de modèles, mais a une production rationalisée. Le drone Geran deviendra probablement le moyen de frappe prisé par de nombreux Etats ne pouvant pas se permettre d'acheter des missiles. Les technologies de Lancet, Molniyah ou FPV russes seront aussi des atouts.
🔹La Turquie 🇹🇷 reste le leader mondial de l'exportation des drones MALES. Si le pays a pris du retard sur les autres technologies de drones (comme tout le monde), il reste très avancé dans les technologies avancées, notamment avec l'Akinci. Les drones turcs ont prouvé leur efficacité dans de nombreux conflits assymétrique, en particulier en Afrique.
En fin de compte, ce triangle du drone est complémentaire et sera, après guerre, un HUB majeur d'export des technologies sans pilotes à travers le monde. D'un côté, une large gamme de systèmes peu couteux, de l'autre une masse de production efficace et enfin un leader à l'heure actuelle de l'exportation de technologies avancées.
https://twitter.com/pic/media%2FHOtSdpUWgAA9wEt.png
tweet
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Clément Molin
Photo
@clement_molin
New video of Ukrainian 🇺🇦 strikes on multiple radars and air-defense systems in Krasnodar Krai, in southern Russia 🇷🇺
These strikes on air-defense, coupled with the previous campaign in southern Ukraine and Crimea are opening gaps for long-range strikes against the Russian economy/refineries in the southern part of the country.
If the US were to allow Ukraine to use Starlink over Russia, numerous air-defense systems, radars, and Iskander missiles would be threatened by operator-controlled Ukrainian FP-1/2 drones, mainly in border regions.
Video
https://twitter.com/pic/amplify_video_thumb%2F2083931878441009153%2Fimg%2Fm7pr1ClTdfbUhs_w.jpg https://twitter.com/pic/media%2FHOuifioXoAAt6dB.jpg https://twitter.com/pic/media%2FHOuiqg_WcAAjwhy.jpg https://twitter.com/pic/media%2FHOui4f5W0AAfVZ7.jpg
tweet
New video of Ukrainian 🇺🇦 strikes on multiple radars and air-defense systems in Krasnodar Krai, in southern Russia 🇷🇺
These strikes on air-defense, coupled with the previous campaign in southern Ukraine and Crimea are opening gaps for long-range strikes against the Russian economy/refineries in the southern part of the country.
If the US were to allow Ukraine to use Starlink over Russia, numerous air-defense systems, radars, and Iskander missiles would be threatened by operator-controlled Ukrainian FP-1/2 drones, mainly in border regions.
Video
https://twitter.com/pic/amplify_video_thumb%2F2083931878441009153%2Fimg%2Fm7pr1ClTdfbUhs_w.jpg https://twitter.com/pic/media%2FHOuifioXoAAt6dB.jpg https://twitter.com/pic/media%2FHOuiqg_WcAAjwhy.jpg https://twitter.com/pic/media%2FHOui4f5W0AAfVZ7.jpg
tweet
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