@clement_molin
Sources include :

🔸lostarmour.info/map (most of UA gas stations proofs/170)
🔸t.me/geranium_chronicles / t.me/geran_gerbera (some missing ones)

🔸@UAControlMap for RU gas stations :
(twitter.com/neonhandrail/status/20… twitter.com/MikiValbuena/status/20…
twitter.com/zarGEOINT/status/20856…
twitter.com/MikiValbuena/status/20…
twitter.com/TuiteroMartin/status/2…
map.ukrdailyupdate.com/?lat=…
twitter.com/neonhandrail/status/20…
twitter.com/zarGEOINT/status/20593…
twitter.com/neonhandrail/status/20…) + others geos from uacontrol

Zaryon OSINT (@zarGEOINT)

🇺🇦🇷🇺 A Ukrainian strike hit a Gazprom gas station in Valuyki, Belgorod Oblast, Russia.

📍 Geolocation: 50.21909, 38.08342

@GeoConfirmed @FaytuksNetwork @UAControlMap

1/2

Video
https://twitter.com/pic/amplify_video_thumb%2F2085612706535518208%2Fimg%2Fzl__GKw4nto2t83O.jpg

— https://twitter.com/zarGEOINT/status/2085619011203502197#m
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@clement_molin
Zoom on Eastern Ukraine with roads.
https://twitter.com/pic/media%2FHPhFEqHXoAE_JKN.jpg
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@clement_molin
Les moyens de frappes russes 🇷🇺 dans la profondeur continuent de se renforcer, avec plus de frappes et plus de cibles touchées

▫️Missiles balistiques : Iskander M, Kinjal, Oreshnik (peu régulier), KN-23 / KN-24 (nord-coréens)
▫️Missiles de croisière : Kh-101 / Kh-555, Kalibr, Kh-59 / Kh-69, Kh-22 / Kh-32 (moins utilisé)
▫️Défense sol-air réutilisée : S300/400
▫️Autres missiles moins utilisés : Zircon + KH-31P anti-radar

▫️Nouveautés : P-800 Oniks et S8000 Banderol (missile de croisière low-cost)

▫️Drones Shahed (version initiale, désormais appelée Geran) :
➡️Shahed-131 / Geran-1 (livrés par l'Iran, plus utilisé)
➡️Geran-2 : drone le plus utilisé
➡️Geran-3 : amélioration du Geran-2, n'est plus produit
➡️Geran-4 : nouveau drone-jet, production à venir de 3 000 par mois, coût unitaire 3x plus élevé
➡️Geran-5 : version différente de drone-jet, peu utilisée

▫️Drones leurres (pouvant emporter des explosifs) : Gerbera, Italmas (BM-35), Parodiya
▫️Autres drones utilisés plus proche du front : FPV à fibre opptique, Lancet, Molniyah, BM-35...

En août, 200 impacts ont déjà été ajoutés dans ma base de donnée, incluant une majorité de frappes sur les entrepôts à travers le pays, à la fois civils (supermarchés) et potentiellement militaires.

Sur le long terme, les frappes menacent le réseau électrique ukrainien pour l'hiver prochain (la campagne de frappe n'a pas encore débuté à proprement parler).
https://twitter.com/pic/media%2FHPhwsK3XQAEdeFi.jpg
Rob Lee (@RALee85)

GUR tells @mil_in_ua that Russia is producing 3,000 jet-powered Geran-4 and Geran-5 as well as up to 80 Banderol missiles per month.
militarnyi.com/uk/news/3-tys…
militarnyi.com/uk/news/rosiy…
https://twitter.com/pic/media%2FHPgNzDKWIAA9GLa.png

— https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/2087433606847242440#m
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@clement_molin
In a very rare propaganda video showcasing flags, Ukraine 🇺🇦 announced it liberated 26 villages in the Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia and Dnipropetrovsk oblasts

If usually, Russians are the ones publishing those kind of videos, this time, Ukraine showed the results of a 6 months operation.

In red, you can see the maximum grey zone where Russian soldiers were operating, in yellow "liberated" villages (I will keep most of those in the grey zone) and the arrows are showing attack axes of the second phase of the offensive. As usual, a flag video is not sufficient to prove a village is under the control of one army. The ones I managed to prove (Russian airstrikes or multiple geolocations) are in the blue area.

The operation is still ongoing and further offensive actions are happening around both Uspenivka and Komar, two small towns with great local importance. Results are taking time because this is a very careful and slow offensive. As you can see, Ukrainian soldiers crossed the Mokri Yali and entered both Zirka and Yalta, which shows how Russia completly lost the momentum there. Remember, they lost hundreds of men assaulting the New Donbas Line section between Ivanivka and Novopavlivka.
https://twitter.com/pic/media%2FHPiAZDrXEAEBOib.jpg
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@clement_molin
Video and source : t.me/ua_dshv/8563

Remember, they only show you what they want you to see. Russians are doing the same, they did flag videos all over the area for months to hide this and they will continue, this doesn't mean they control anything, otherwise, you wouldn't see Ukrainians in multiple villages 10km behind what they claim...

Video
https://twitter.com/pic/amplify_video_thumb%2F2087561047838240768%2Fimg%2FwMH9TUh9nhTaaxPX.jpg
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@AndrewPerpetua
Today the Ukrainian General Staff the liberation of 26 settlements in Dnipropetrovsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Donetsk Oblasts. A total of 352 square kilometers. It is the highlighted blue area in the image below.
https://twitter.com/pic/media%2FHPiLOFkXYAAgtkf.jpg
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@clement_molin
As expected, @Deepstate_UA and other Ukrainian 🇺🇦 media outlets followed on the liberation of multiple villages

Despite many "analysts" doubting OPSEC, not too much information filtered from this offensive. Thus, let's get back inside to understand what happened

🧵THREAD🧵⬇️
https://twitter.com/pic/media%2FHPi1_KcXIAAzFhZ.jpg
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@clement_molin
Another one later here :
https://twitter.com/pic/media%2FHPi7oILWkAAMWnA.png
Clément Molin (@clement_molin)

The situation of the Novopavlivka-Ivanivka front is currently the most difficult for Russian 🇷🇺 forces

🔹After months of infiltrations, often covered by OPSEC, the Ukrainians 🇺🇦 liberated a bunch of villages and cleared both Ivanivka and Novopavlivka from previous infiltrations. In this area, around 55 km2 of grey zone are most likely under Ukrainian control, as per high FAB strikes number.

🔹The main Russian problem is logistical. All roads leading to the area are exposed and under fire. The only places used for accumulation are Bahatyr (completly destroyed) and Komar (partially destroyed, hit by Ukrainian airstrikes). After these villages, Russian infantry still need to walk on foot, on open roads from 5 to 10 km to reach "frontline" villages and positions before assaults.

🔹Recent videos showed multiple casualties after Russian infantry were sent across the Vovcha (Bahatyr-Ivanivka), Solena (Novopavlivka) and Mokri Yali (Komar) river. Despite these losses, Russian infantry is still tasked to attack the New Donbas Line section between Novopavlivka and Ivanivka (they need to cross 2 rivers and 3 ditches), which is suicidal, knowing they have been attacking here for 10 months !)

🔹Russian "flaggers" continue to be sighted in Iskra, further west, in an attempt from the 90th tank division to show they control the situation to their command. Regularly on Telegram, Russian bloggers complain about the risk of Ukrainian entrance in Komar, since fighting have been happening in Piddubne for weeks. The situation is not very good for the 29th CAA in this sector, but the danger of further explotation is limited due to rivers.

🔹Ukraine deployed 3 air assault brigades (79th, 80th, 95th) in the direction to push back russian forces behind the Mokri Yali river and further reinforce their lines in the sector. This also gives more losses for Russia forces. The main challenge is the large number of airstrikes falling on their positions. If airstrikes decreased in Hulialpole, they slightly increased here recently, including more than 50 in the large yellow perimeter on the map, inside the grey zone between Komar and Ivanivka.

🔹With Novopavlivka under Ukrainian control and Ivanivka secured, the UAF can move south to pressure and trap russians attempting to attack the New Donbas Line fortified section. But it is probably much more interesting to keep the situation as it is currently, since this is an open kill zone for tens or hundreds of Russians every month. For further exploitation, the Komar/Velika Novosilka directions are much more interesting in order to further slow down or postpone Russian offensive momentum in Hulialpole.

For this situation review, I used @AndrewPerpetua base map and @WarUnitObserver observations about unit deployment.
https://twitter.com/pic/media%2FHNC867DW4AEWT4T.jpg

— https://twitter.com/clement_molin/status/2076374428523385158#m
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