Clément Molin
Photo
@clement_molin
La nuit dernière, plusieurs centaines de drones ukrainiens 🇺🇦 ont attaqué la région de Moscou, la majorité, semble-t-il, ont été abattus.
Une fois de plus, des centaines de drones sont gaspillés contre une région ultra-défendue (au moins 200 systèmes de défense aérienne et des centaines d'équipes supplémentaires armées de canons), sans résultat. S'il est difficile d'avoir des statistiques précises, il est établi qu'environ 10 à 20% des drones russes ne sont pas abattus lors des frappes sur l'Ukraine. Lorsque Kyiv frappe la Russie, on parle de 2 à 5% maximum frappant leur cible.
Ce constat est rejoint par celui de l'efficacité très médiocre du FP-5 "Flamingo" qui est la plupart du temps abattu. En réalité, il faut comprendre que Kyiv ne dispose que de ces moyens à l'heure actuelle et que donc, malgré une efficacité bien plus faible, c'est un mal pour un bien. Néanmoins, de nombreuses cibles moins défendues sont à portée des drones, notamment dans les régions frontalières, ce qui interroge sur ces frappes sur Moscou...
https://twitter.com/pic/media%2FHQAKKYtWsAAod2l.jpg
Woofers (@NotWoofers)
The moment a Ukrainian drone is shot down over Pavlovsky Posad, Moscow oblast of Russia tonight.
Video
https://twitter.com/pic/amplify_video_thumb%2F2089508392276537344%2Fimg%2Fr1X3OC2TiBelbfeV.jpg
— https://twitter.com/NotWoofers/status/2089508455413342665#m
tweet
La nuit dernière, plusieurs centaines de drones ukrainiens 🇺🇦 ont attaqué la région de Moscou, la majorité, semble-t-il, ont été abattus.
Une fois de plus, des centaines de drones sont gaspillés contre une région ultra-défendue (au moins 200 systèmes de défense aérienne et des centaines d'équipes supplémentaires armées de canons), sans résultat. S'il est difficile d'avoir des statistiques précises, il est établi qu'environ 10 à 20% des drones russes ne sont pas abattus lors des frappes sur l'Ukraine. Lorsque Kyiv frappe la Russie, on parle de 2 à 5% maximum frappant leur cible.
Ce constat est rejoint par celui de l'efficacité très médiocre du FP-5 "Flamingo" qui est la plupart du temps abattu. En réalité, il faut comprendre que Kyiv ne dispose que de ces moyens à l'heure actuelle et que donc, malgré une efficacité bien plus faible, c'est un mal pour un bien. Néanmoins, de nombreuses cibles moins défendues sont à portée des drones, notamment dans les régions frontalières, ce qui interroge sur ces frappes sur Moscou...
https://twitter.com/pic/media%2FHQAKKYtWsAAod2l.jpg
Woofers (@NotWoofers)
The moment a Ukrainian drone is shot down over Pavlovsky Posad, Moscow oblast of Russia tonight.
Video
https://twitter.com/pic/amplify_video_thumb%2F2089508392276537344%2Fimg%2Fr1X3OC2TiBelbfeV.jpg
— https://twitter.com/NotWoofers/status/2089508455413342665#m
tweet
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Clément Molin
Photo
@clement_molin
Pourquoi "faire sentir la guerre aux russes 🇷🇺" est un argument qui ne me semble pas valable ?
La guerre russe en Ukraine dure depuis 5 ans, les russes, qu'ils vivent à Saint-Pétersbourg ou à Vladivostok sont très bien au courant qu'ils sont en guerre. Les chaînes Telegram/Max, la télévision et les réseaux sociaux sont remplis de contenus présentant les résultats de "l'opération militaire spéciale". Penser que quelques drones dans le ciel de Moscou, de la fumée pendant quelques jours à Saratov ou un Wildberries qui brûle à Ekaterinbourg changent quelque chose, c'est se voiler la face.
Le peuple russe ne semble pas spécialement opposé à la guerre. Pour ainsi dire, il n'y a pas de sondages publics, mais on n'a pas vu un seul mouvement de protestation et chaque frappe ukrainienne (à part dans les villes les plus touchées (frontalières et sur la côte de la Mer Noire)) est plus l'occasion d'un feu d'artifice, d'une vidéo TikTok que d'une réelle crainte (on ne voit jamais les russes descendre aux abris anti-aériens et les pertes civiles sont minimales).
La guerre impacte assez peu le quotidien des russes. Bien sûr, un certain nombre d'enseignes occidentales ont disparu, mais les russes continuent de voyager. Quelques jours en Turquie, en Egypte, en Thaïlande ou à Dubaï montrent bien que la partie huppée de la Russie a juste déplacé ses vacances ailleurs. Les russes de la classe moyenne et globalement de l'ouest sont assez peu impactés par le recrutement militaire, qui touche avant tout les plus pauvres (principalement ceux du sud ou de l'est, qui ont moins d'influence et sont moins politisés). La guerre est même une aubaine pour bon nombre de soldats (primes importantes), de familles (qui touchent d'importantes pensions à la mort d'un fils) ou de femmes (qui se marient avec des soldats pour toucher leur solde militaire en cas de décès).
Le véritable impact que la guerre a et peut avoir sur le russe lambda est économique. La situation financière russe est tendue, la situation économique actuelle n'est pas optimale, le manque de carburant touche tout le monde dans certains oblasts et les frappes ukrainiennes ont un effet sur certaines infrastructures et donc l'emploi. La seule chose qui pourrait vraiment faire changer le peuple russe d'opinion sur la guerre, c'est la mobilisation. Si demain, des centaines de milliers de russes devaient être mobilisés, cela tendrait la situation sociale et économique. Mais en réalité, je ne crois pas qu'il faille attendre un quelconque mouvement venant du peuple russe, même en cas de mobilisation militaire. Ainsi, penser que les frappes ukrainiennes impactent le moral des russes et montrent la guerre sur leur territoire me semble erroné. Seule la situation économique pourrait réellement changer quelque chose à terme.
https://twitter.com/pic/media%2FHQBROkLWQAAitFf.png
tweet
Pourquoi "faire sentir la guerre aux russes 🇷🇺" est un argument qui ne me semble pas valable ?
La guerre russe en Ukraine dure depuis 5 ans, les russes, qu'ils vivent à Saint-Pétersbourg ou à Vladivostok sont très bien au courant qu'ils sont en guerre. Les chaînes Telegram/Max, la télévision et les réseaux sociaux sont remplis de contenus présentant les résultats de "l'opération militaire spéciale". Penser que quelques drones dans le ciel de Moscou, de la fumée pendant quelques jours à Saratov ou un Wildberries qui brûle à Ekaterinbourg changent quelque chose, c'est se voiler la face.
Le peuple russe ne semble pas spécialement opposé à la guerre. Pour ainsi dire, il n'y a pas de sondages publics, mais on n'a pas vu un seul mouvement de protestation et chaque frappe ukrainienne (à part dans les villes les plus touchées (frontalières et sur la côte de la Mer Noire)) est plus l'occasion d'un feu d'artifice, d'une vidéo TikTok que d'une réelle crainte (on ne voit jamais les russes descendre aux abris anti-aériens et les pertes civiles sont minimales).
La guerre impacte assez peu le quotidien des russes. Bien sûr, un certain nombre d'enseignes occidentales ont disparu, mais les russes continuent de voyager. Quelques jours en Turquie, en Egypte, en Thaïlande ou à Dubaï montrent bien que la partie huppée de la Russie a juste déplacé ses vacances ailleurs. Les russes de la classe moyenne et globalement de l'ouest sont assez peu impactés par le recrutement militaire, qui touche avant tout les plus pauvres (principalement ceux du sud ou de l'est, qui ont moins d'influence et sont moins politisés). La guerre est même une aubaine pour bon nombre de soldats (primes importantes), de familles (qui touchent d'importantes pensions à la mort d'un fils) ou de femmes (qui se marient avec des soldats pour toucher leur solde militaire en cas de décès).
Le véritable impact que la guerre a et peut avoir sur le russe lambda est économique. La situation financière russe est tendue, la situation économique actuelle n'est pas optimale, le manque de carburant touche tout le monde dans certains oblasts et les frappes ukrainiennes ont un effet sur certaines infrastructures et donc l'emploi. La seule chose qui pourrait vraiment faire changer le peuple russe d'opinion sur la guerre, c'est la mobilisation. Si demain, des centaines de milliers de russes devaient être mobilisés, cela tendrait la situation sociale et économique. Mais en réalité, je ne crois pas qu'il faille attendre un quelconque mouvement venant du peuple russe, même en cas de mobilisation militaire. Ainsi, penser que les frappes ukrainiennes impactent le moral des russes et montrent la guerre sur leur territoire me semble erroné. Seule la situation économique pourrait réellement changer quelque chose à terme.
https://twitter.com/pic/media%2FHQBROkLWQAAitFf.png
tweet
👎6👍5🤔5❤1🤯1
Clément Molin
Photo
@clement_molin
In recent weeks, Russian 🇷🇺 forces intensified offensive actions around Dobropilla
Russian infiltrators have been sighted in multiple small towns south of Dobropilla, while urban fightings are ongoing in Bilytske and Shevchenko.
At the same time, the first attempts to infiltrate Dobropilla are taking place from the east, while the main offensive actions are happening further south, out of Pokrovsk.
Finally, after 8 months of battle, Russian army managed to completly clear Pokrovsk north and western suburbs (Rodynske and Hryshyne), which is allowing the city to be used as a logistic HUB for the first time (which means soldiers can +/- freely walk in the city, logistic can set bases and the threat from constant FPV strikes is disapearing from the southern part of the city (which does not mean strikes do not continue, as well as artillery shelling).
https://twitter.com/pic/media%2FHQCO68hWsAAfJ3s.jpg
tweet
In recent weeks, Russian 🇷🇺 forces intensified offensive actions around Dobropilla
Russian infiltrators have been sighted in multiple small towns south of Dobropilla, while urban fightings are ongoing in Bilytske and Shevchenko.
At the same time, the first attempts to infiltrate Dobropilla are taking place from the east, while the main offensive actions are happening further south, out of Pokrovsk.
Finally, after 8 months of battle, Russian army managed to completly clear Pokrovsk north and western suburbs (Rodynske and Hryshyne), which is allowing the city to be used as a logistic HUB for the first time (which means soldiers can +/- freely walk in the city, logistic can set bases and the threat from constant FPV strikes is disapearing from the southern part of the city (which does not mean strikes do not continue, as well as artillery shelling).
https://twitter.com/pic/media%2FHQCO68hWsAAfJ3s.jpg
tweet
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Forwarded from Playfra - Maps & Analyses
Addendum.
Updated Russian infiltration routes according to information from https://x.com/RALee85/status/2090521203651809349 and information about known Russian infiltration events in the city.
- The main responsible Russian units in this sector are their 6th and 7th Motorized Rifle Brigades.
- The Russians are establishing positions in Dovhiy Forest.
- They use teams to repeat the signal of their radios (TYT and Lira radio systems) for infiltrators moving further west.
- Russian forces in this direction continue to aggressively employ waiting FPV drones, including changing their positions daily to make it more difficult to locate them. FPVs are also used to patrol logistics routes, escort infiltration teams, and strike identified targets.
Furthermore, from channel t.me/nikolaevka_online regarding Russian infiltration methods: "They infiltrate one or two at a time through areas with cover, gather together, and then attack the city. So, they might lose 500 people for 10-15 to reach the desired location and capture a few positions."
As already mentioned, very small groups of Russian infiltrators are spotted regularly in the city by now.
Updated Russian infiltration routes according to information from https://x.com/RALee85/status/2090521203651809349 and information about known Russian infiltration events in the city.
- The main responsible Russian units in this sector are their 6th and 7th Motorized Rifle Brigades.
- The Russians are establishing positions in Dovhiy Forest.
- They use teams to repeat the signal of their radios (TYT and Lira radio systems) for infiltrators moving further west.
- Russian forces in this direction continue to aggressively employ waiting FPV drones, including changing their positions daily to make it more difficult to locate them. FPVs are also used to patrol logistics routes, escort infiltration teams, and strike identified targets.
Furthermore, from channel t.me/nikolaevka_online regarding Russian infiltration methods: "They infiltrate one or two at a time through areas with cover, gather together, and then attack the city. So, they might lose 500 people for 10-15 to reach the desired location and capture a few positions."
As already mentioned, very small groups of Russian infiltrators are spotted regularly in the city by now.
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Here is my map without any layer or city name in order to correctly see the situation.
What Russia took in 2026 is in orange. There is an online battle for numbers and control map so here is my interpretation :
🔹A single video (most often flag video) is not enough of a proof to show something, I'm using 3 kinds of sources, as usual (I'm one of the only mapper to explain what my sources are) :
1- Geolocated footage
2- Satellite images
3- Ground sources, both direct and through other trusted accounts
🔹Control (blue or orange) is added only when one side control the area OR has a very high number of positions in the area, which makes other side presence insignificant, often despite heavy communication.
🔹Grey zone shows contested, infiltrated and unknown areas. In some grey zone areas, you will find many videos of one side, which does not mean the other one has no soldiers there.
-> There are Ukrainian soldiers in orange zone and Russian soldiers in blue zone.
What Russia took in 2026 is in orange. There is an online battle for numbers and control map so here is my interpretation :
🔹A single video (most often flag video) is not enough of a proof to show something, I'm using 3 kinds of sources, as usual (I'm one of the only mapper to explain what my sources are) :
1- Geolocated footage
2- Satellite images
3- Ground sources, both direct and through other trusted accounts
🔹Control (blue or orange) is added only when one side control the area OR has a very high number of positions in the area, which makes other side presence insignificant, often despite heavy communication.
🔹Grey zone shows contested, infiltrated and unknown areas. In some grey zone areas, you will find many videos of one side, which does not mean the other one has no soldiers there.
-> There are Ukrainian soldiers in orange zone and Russian soldiers in blue zone.
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AIRSTRIKE MAP :
As usual, I continue to map Russian airstrike campaign. In August, hundreds of new strikes targeted Donbas, with the first massive strikes into the central cities.
High concentration near Dobropilla, in Drujkivka, as well as between both cities. Some strikes behind Kramatorsk and Sloviansk and some usual strikes east of Sloviansk. With around 1 650 airstrikes in 20 days, we have approximately 35 daily airstrike on this single frontline area (and I didn't check inside Kramatorsk and Sloviansk).
As usual, I continue to map Russian airstrike campaign. In August, hundreds of new strikes targeted Donbas, with the first massive strikes into the central cities.
High concentration near Dobropilla, in Drujkivka, as well as between both cities. Some strikes behind Kramatorsk and Sloviansk and some usual strikes east of Sloviansk. With around 1 650 airstrikes in 20 days, we have approximately 35 daily airstrike on this single frontline area (and I didn't check inside Kramatorsk and Sloviansk).
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FPV DRONES USAGE : There is an increased number of FPV drone strikes on Sloviansk and Kramatorsk, as well as in and around both Drujkivka and Dobropilla.
@kriegsforscherD
reports 1500 to 2000 FPV drones on Drujkivka and 1 200 in Dobropilla every day. x.com/kriegsforscher This can be corroborated by the high number of videos and destroyed vehicles on key supply roads.
@kriegsforscherD
reports 1500 to 2000 FPV drones on Drujkivka and 1 200 in Dobropilla every day. x.com/kriegsforscher This can be corroborated by the high number of videos and destroyed vehicles on key supply roads.
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FORTIFICATIONS :
If fortifications significantly slow down and help eliminate Russian soldiers on a daily basis, they are also a challenge, especially around the so called "doors".
White dots on this map are the "doors" (roads) Ukraine let into its main defensive line for its own logistics. Those are heavily targeted by Russia, but also the place where they try to infiltrate.
If fortifications significantly slow down and help eliminate Russian soldiers on a daily basis, they are also a challenge, especially around the so called "doors".
White dots on this map are the "doors" (roads) Ukraine let into its main defensive line for its own logistics. Those are heavily targeted by Russia, but also the place where they try to infiltrate.
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SITUATION IN DOBROPILLA :
In the Dobropilla direction, Russia finally consolidated the destroyed town of Rodysnke, while heavy fightings are still happening in Bilytske.
To supply Dobropilla, Ukraine is using 5 roads (so 5 different doors). Russian army continues to send infiltrators deep behind the lines, with some of them reaching Dobropilla or Vodyanske. Most of the time, their value is very small, but sometimes, some special forces are doing these infiltrations to set ambushes and occupy key positions/target drone teams, which is very problematic.
Closer to Pokrovsk, infiltrations and fighting continue around Shevchenko.
In the Drujkivka, direction, the situation is similar to what I wrote a week ago.
In the Dobropilla direction, Russia finally consolidated the destroyed town of Rodysnke, while heavy fightings are still happening in Bilytske.
To supply Dobropilla, Ukraine is using 5 roads (so 5 different doors). Russian army continues to send infiltrators deep behind the lines, with some of them reaching Dobropilla or Vodyanske. Most of the time, their value is very small, but sometimes, some special forces are doing these infiltrations to set ambushes and occupy key positions/target drone teams, which is very problematic.
Closer to Pokrovsk, infiltrations and fighting continue around Shevchenko.
In the Drujkivka, direction, the situation is similar to what I wrote a week ago.
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SITUATION IN KOSTIANTYNIVKA : The battle for Kostiantynivka is still ongoing, despite many claims. I believe Russia control around 50% of the city (mainly southern part), which means they have more soldiers than Ukraine, they can enter the city and accumulate. Most of this "50% under Russian control" has not been cleared, there are still Ukrainian positions in the south, which continue sporadic fighting. It's worth noting there are not too much firefights, mainly air and drone strikes, soldiers remain in shelter and rarely go out. Another 10 to 15% of the city is still under Ukrainian control (north-eastern part of the city), where we can find some Russian infiltrators. On the other side of the river, many Ukrainian soldiers are still present according to recent videos, but this is a grey zone. This video from recent days shows Russian artillery shelling in the center of the city : x.com/moklasen/statu and this is not an isolated event (x.com/AudaxonX/statu / x.com/Mocca2X/status / x.com/giK1893/status)
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Infiltrations continue to reach Oleksievo-Drujkivka and the first flags have been sighted in Mykolaipillia west of Kostiantynivka.
I have no clear information regarding Chasiv Yar, except the area is still a big grey zone, with Ukrainian soldiers still present close to the city. Kostinaytnivka is expected to be definitively abandonned in autumn, a year after the battle for the city started. Ukraine will need to heavily resist in Oleksievo-Drujkivka and Raiske to delay the battle for Drujkivka.
I have no clear information regarding Chasiv Yar, except the area is still a big grey zone, with Ukrainian soldiers still present close to the city. Kostinaytnivka is expected to be definitively abandonned in autumn, a year after the battle for the city started. Ukraine will need to heavily resist in Oleksievo-Drujkivka and Raiske to delay the battle for Drujkivka.
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SITUATION IN SLOVIANSK : This area has been the most successful for Russia in 2026. The battle for Mykolaivka will probably soon start, since the first infiltrations have been sighted near the city. At the same time, cross canal infiltrations are getting closer to Kramatorsk and Sloviansk, Russia will sooner or later control the high ground above both cities. Kramatorsk is mainly on the eastern side of a river, it is more vulnerable to infiltrations, while Sloviansk is on the western side, with much more natural defenses against those infiltrations. Yesterday, two good informations came about Russian infiltrations into Mykolaivka (x.com/Playfra0/statu / x.com/RALee85/status), both of which showing the "Dovhyi forest" used for infiltration. A month ago already, I reported on my map update the use of this forest for accumulation and infiltration (x.com/clement_molin/), months before, heavy airstrikes happened in this exact forest.
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