During the last 6 months, Russia 🇷🇺 dropped more than 10 000 FAB bombs in the Ukrainian 🇺🇦 controled Donbas

Russian offensive continues in the region on 3 main axes, east of Kramatorsk, south of Drujkivka and north-west of Pokrovsk.

🧵THREAD🧵1/10 ⬇️

This animated map is a small part of the work I did to collect more than 24 000 impacts of Russian air-guided bombs during the last 6 months. If you wish to support me, you can do it here : buymeacoffee.com/clement.molin

Thank you !

French OSINT analyst Clément Molin has published an animated map showing Russian drone and missile strikes on Kyiv and its surroundings over the past 100 days.

At least 255 strikes have been recorded. In June and July, Russia mainly used ballistic missiles, while in August, Geran-4 drones became the primary weapon used in the attacks.

Tomorrow, I will share a long thread covering the situation in Lyman during the last 4 months.

Finally, Russian (and thus pro-Russian) sources started talking about it, which means it is now safe for the local units to talk about the situation that they successfully hid for months.

I have 4 pages of text, 15 maps, and much information about the chronological events (which will not be perfect, of course) for everyone to understand what happened, why it was not revealed before, and what most of the maps still didn't catch.

After 4 months of the Lyman counter-attack, Ukraine 🇺🇦 3rd Army Corps managed to cut Russian 🇷🇺 salient north of Lyman and liberate more than 200 km2

This is one of the most important victory for Ukraine in 2026 which will delay the offensive on northern Donbas

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The results of this offensive are significant since this is a very important area in eastern Ukraine. This saliant, was the base for an offensive on Lyman, which could have allowed further offensives to Izium and Sloviansk, threatened the northern supply road to Donbas.

This area was already fought for in May 2022, September 2022 and May 2025, when Russia managed, after two years of very big losses to capture some critical Ukrainian positions.

To explain geography, you have 4 rivers. The Krasna river valley, from Svatove to Kreminna, that remained under Russian control. Further west is the Zherebets river. For a long time, Ukraine had control of many positions few kilometers east of it, while it could easily shoot the Russians from the high ground behind the river. It took Russia immense losses (remember all the assaults on Terny…) to take control of the eastern side of the Zherebets and it was very difficult to climb to the western side, since only few dams, in the open, allow passage.

After the Zherebets is a high ground, which Russia captured last year and is a strategic location. Further west is the small Nitrius river, which was the next stop line for Ukraine and was barely crossed by infiltrators. The last one is the Oskil/Donets rivers further east or south, that can barely be crossed.

3/20

About OPSEC :

Despite many claims, OPSEC (Operational Security) was very well observed, with barely any comment on the situation and no media attention. Why it matters? Because we knew that Russian units from there were weak and the 20th CAA had no reserve to throw in. Lying is being systemic (just observe the difference in reporting by pro-RU accounts that have contacts from this area and from the south…), so even if the information is coming to the battalion/regiment HQ, it is not sure that that information reaches the 20th CAA HQ and then Gerasimov. Otherwise, they would have sent some VDV or marine brigade/division that were elsewhere, the same way it happened in the south this year.

Remember in Ivanivka, Radov and Rybar warned many times about the situation before It happened. I spent some time digging into their reports about Lyman and funnily, didn’t find anything that I had access at the same time, which is curious, because when something wrong is happening somewhere, they always react, because they are red by the high command. It’s not like nothing happened, but they just lacked information from the ground. It’s only recently that Divgen, Rybar, Radov and others started updating their maps.

4/20

What really happened based on my information :

On May 22nd, a mechanized battalion of the 3rd Assault brigade supported by at least 2 other brigades (60th and 66th) from the 3rd Army Corps launched a large mechanized offensive with an important jamming of Russian drones.

The assault began in the forests east of Izium and reached the village of Nove. In total, around 5 Ukrainians vehicles were hit during the assault, mainly by Fiber Optic drones (which shows that only those could fly) and many returned. That day, the Ukrainians managed to entrench in the fortified treeline east of Nove and started their Lyman counter-attack.

5/20

The week later, clearing operations started inside Nove, with the Ukrainians having a large manpower advantage due to their mechanized assault.

While there was an assault on Nove from the east, the Ukrainians entrenched in 3 additional forests west of Nove, in order to widen the push. On June 1st, Nove was mostly liberated, while the offensive was continuing further south.

6/20

To illustrate this, on June 11th, I posted this “In the Lyman direction, after the May 22nd mechanized assault on Nove, the Ukrainians managed to consolidate their gains as seen in recent geolocations as well as satellite images”, illustrating that with a picture from June 8th satellite images showing more than 12 guided air-strikes (KABs).

This was the first confirmation that the Ukrainians managed to secure all positions west of Nove and Lypove. The same day, I managed to confirm the Ukrainians took control of strategic treelines and forests south of Nove, more than 2 weeks after the initial assault and took control of Katerynivka.

8/20