Clément Molin
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French Analyst, following the war in Ukraine and other conflicts
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About the information space : There is only one reason barely any information was published about this offensive : geolocators for @UkraineDailyUpd
(@moklasen, @giK1893, @ZoamSc2, @Bielitzling, @RoadtoMars9...) chose not to update their map and publish geolocations. I know for sure they have plenty of geolocations from Russian videos that they didn't publish, this shows how small the information space is. If they don't publish anything, barely anyone else is doing any work.
18/20
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Finally, here is my airstrike map :

🟠= June
🔴= July
⚪️= August
🟡= September

19/20
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Thank you all for following this long thread, covering the information that are not part of the current OPSEC regime.

This is the result of months of coverage of this Ukrainian offensive, which is still ongoing.

20/20
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Forwarded from falcon
🗺🛵 Route of the jet drone that entered Moldova and Romania.

Timeline
12:30 UTC - Drone detected by Ukrainian radars
13:00 UTC - Drone enters Ukrainian airspace
13:20 UTC - Drone enters Moldovan airspace
13:30 UTC - Drone flies over the Moldovan capital, Chisinau.
13:40 UTC - Drone enters Romania, crossing from Moldova.
13:52 UTC - Drone does a sudden U-turn and turns back to Moldova
14:15 UTC - Drone's speed suddenly decreased from 450km/h to less than 150km/h, then disappears from radar

📍Approximate coordinates where it disappeared:
47.949236, 27.468996
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In August, Russia 🇷🇺 launched 8 673 air-guided bombs against Ukraine 🇺🇦, of which I managed to map 63%

The highest concentration was, for the 1st time since April in the Pokrovsk, Dobropilla, Drujkivka direction, while the Hulialpole direction was 2nd. The Vovcha river direction is third, followed by Sloviansk, Izium and Kupiansk.

This airstrike campaign continues to have devastating effects for frontline positions and cities, with their very good accuracy.

Here is a short animation of airstrikes this year in the Kramatorsk direction, where at least 10 000 impacts were recorded. In Hulialpole, airstrikes continue to move farther west than the frontline, always in front of infiltrations. In this area, they are very precise.

Near Dobropilla, airstrikes are supporting the ongoing offensive, hitting every single treeline and forest. Finally in Kharkiv, they target large forests, since it's difficult to find and strike positions there. Airstrikes also target Sumy direction but I lack the tim eo map them.
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😌 Карта активности украинских БПЛА и ракет на территории РФ по состоянию на утро 11 сентября.

FP-5 атаковали хим.завод по производству твердого топлива.
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The Houthis are continuing their offensive and seizing control of the strategic Bab el-Mandeb Strait. The loss of Perim Island—a strategic base on the strait—represents a major turning point for the global economy.

Map 2 clearly illustrates the geopolitical web of the Middle East. Despite multipolar diplomacy, alliances have not disappeared:
▪️ the pro-Iranian bloc
▪️ the Sunni bloc (Turkey, Egypt, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia)
▪️ the Israel–UAE bloc

The balance of power shifted completely after October 7. The pro-Iranian "Axis of Resistance" was severely weakened but not destroyed. Key factors in this shift included:
▪️ the strengthening of Israel
▪️ the fall of Assad in Syria
▪️ the partial, though incomplete, destruction of Hamas and Hezbollah

❗️Conversely, after a series of setbacks between 2023 and 2025, Iran ultimately emerged victorious from the confrontation with Israel and the US. Despite strikes that destroyed parts of its military and economic infrastructure, Tehran still controls the Strait of Hormuz
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Russia 🇷🇺 continues to intensify strikes against Ukrainian gas stations across the country.

Yesterday, at least 3 gas stations were targeted in downtown Kyiv by Geran-4 drones, while similar strikes continue on key roads with Geran-4 drones and on frontline cities with FPVs and fixed wing drones.

▪️In total, more than 240 gas stations have been hit across the country, close to borders.
▪️This shows the lack of means to target fuel trucks and small fuel storage tanks like Ukraine is doing in the south.

This map only shows part of the gas stations that were hit, so make sure to tell me in comments if I missed any.
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Since this morning, hundreds of Russian 🇷🇺 Geran-2 drones are flying along the border with Belarus, attacking targets in north-western Ukraine 🇺🇦 At least 3 gas stations, a train and multiple other targets have been hit today.

This is the first large scale attack on western Ukraine since May 2026 and the return of Geran-2 after a long Geran-4 jet-drone campaign against Kyiv and other targets closer to Russia. Geran-2 drones are slower and can be downed by interceptor drones, but they fly in large teams, which allows them to bypass defenses. One of the strike hit a civilian train in the city center of Lutsk city, while others hit various other civilian targets along the Rivne-Kyiv highway.

Few weeks ago, I warned about Russian willingness to launch renewed large scale attacks on western Ukraine ahead of winter. This week, targets in Khmelnytskyï and Zhytomyr were hit, the westernmost ones in weeks.

Animated map is an agregate of maps from t.me/StrategicaviationT
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Under a thick cloud cover, Russia 🇷🇺 launched a massive Geran-2 attack against western Ukraine 🇺🇦

More than 863 were launched, of which 741 were downed, which leaves more than 122 impacts (official numbers, can be higher).

At least 5 gas stations, 2 trains, and 1 electric substation have been confirmed as hit, while multiple other impacts cannot yet be confirmed. Russia clearly targeted Ukrainian logistics and energy infrastructure along the Poland-Kyiv highway.

For the first time in weeks, Russia used numerous Geran-2 drones that they had accumulated for months. This attack was planned for a day with bad weather to complicate Ukrainian air-defense. Moreover, they flew in large groups along the Belarussian border, and some managed to reach the Polish border this morning, with at least two hits confirmed on the Yagodin border crossing, one on a gas station and one on a train where many high level officials were at the time, including the former British PM and a counselor of German Chancellor Merz.
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As summer is slowly finishing, both Ukraine 🇺🇦 and Russia 🇷🇺 are reorganizing their forces

Most of the Russian groupings failed to reach their planned objectives and now concentrate massive forces on a 30km wide front in Dobropillia.

🔹Russia concentrate the 8th, 41st and 51st armies (Tcentr) against the Dobropilla-Drujkivka direction, facing Ukraine's 1st Azov Army Corps (Azov grp).

🔹Russia concentrate weaker forces east of Kramatorsk and Sloviansk with the "Ioug" grouping, while Ukraine is currently reorganising this direction.

🔹Ukraine's 3rd Army Corps (Center) is advancing against Russia's 20th and 25th Armies.
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Forwarded from ✙DeepState✙🇺🇦
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🇺🇦 Третій армійський корпус повідомляє про перші результати операції "Вівальді"

👤 Підрозділи 60-й ОМБр, 125-й ОВМБр, БТГр З-ї ОШБр, 3-му ОРБ та 25-му ОПТБ корпусу, а також приданим підрозділам — 66-й ОМБр, 85-й тгр 8-го полку ССО, спецпідрозділу ГУР МО "Артан" та 10-му мобільному прикордонному загону "ДОЗОР" здійснили зачистку інфільтрованих груп на площі понад 70 кв км.

🇺🇦 Підрозділам вдалося звільнити населений пункт Середнє та околиці сумарною площею близько 12.5 кв км. Дані зміни відбулися ще в травні цього року.

🫡 Операція триває, а її командування просить дотримуватися режиму тиші. Тому вся інформація буде подаватися тоді, коли це буде безпечно нашим військовослужбовцям. Не поспішайте зі спойлерами, робота триває, а за нею стоїть піт і кров українських воїнів.

Мапа🛑Блог🛑Написати нам🛑 ЗСУHelp🛑Підтримати нас
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Ukraine's 🇺🇦 3rd Army Corps acknowledged for the first time the results of part of the operation "Vivaldi".

They revealed very old images (early spring and summer) of the clearing operation of a large infiltrated area all the way to Korovii Yar and Oleksandrivka.

Map : @Deepstate_UA
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In August 2026, Russia 🇷🇺 intensified its strike campaign against Ukraine 🇺🇦.

In total, between 4,600 and 4,900 Geran drones were launched against Ukraine, along
with more than 200 missiles.

The number of Russian Geran drone strikes decreased in August, but so did the interception rate, with nearly 800 drones getting through. There were no massive strikes, but rather constant pressure. I personally confirmed 450 impacts in August.

◾️30–40% of the drones used were decoys.
◾️20–30% of the drones used were jet-powered (Geran-4).
◾️70% of confirmed impacts in August involved jet-powered drones, compared to 36% in July.
◾️90% of Geran-2s are intercepted, compared to 60% of Geran-4/5s.
The shift from the Geran-2 (conventional propulsion) to the Geran-4/5 (jet propulsion)—which began in July—was confirmed in August, accompanied by a strike campaign targeting logistics.
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