1/3 This remained largely undercover, but Russia 🇷🇺 is trying to isolate Ukraine 🇺🇦 from Romania 🇷🇴 and the southern part of Odessa oblast. Russia is targeting border outposts, gas stations, bridges and ports in this "southern Bessarabia" region.
In 2022, there were already scenarios of how Russia would use this region to attack Odessa from the south. It never happened because Russian forces were defeated in Mykolaiv and their navy couldn't do anything.
This year, I did some uchronic scenarios of how Russia would use Transnistria to invade southern Bessarabia, support an offensive coming from the east or a Ukrainian operation in Transnitria. Today, I believe none of them (apart the UA one ?) are possible.
Today, only two bridges are connecting Odessa with the southern part of the oblast or with Romania/Moldova.
🔹Mayaki bridge (one bridge, part of the road goes through Moldova) + 2 new bridges
🔹Zatoka road/rail bridge, heavily targeted by drones, missiles, KABs...
In 2022, there were already scenarios of how Russia would use this region to attack Odessa from the south. It never happened because Russian forces were defeated in Mykolaiv and their navy couldn't do anything.
This year, I did some uchronic scenarios of how Russia would use Transnistria to invade southern Bessarabia, support an offensive coming from the east or a Ukrainian operation in Transnitria. Today, I believe none of them (apart the UA one ?) are possible.
Today, only two bridges are connecting Odessa with the southern part of the oblast or with Romania/Moldova.
🔹Mayaki bridge (one bridge, part of the road goes through Moldova) + 2 new bridges
🔹Zatoka road/rail bridge, heavily targeted by drones, missiles, KABs...
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2/3 On September 19th, a Russian Geran-4 drones targeted the new bridge in Mayaki. This shows how important targeting bridges is, since there are only a few of them.
In total, at least 14 gas stations have been targeted by Russia in Odessa region, mainly in the key road between the southern ports and Mykolaiv. These Russian attacks are being conducted by geran-4 drones. Map made thanks to @ShahedTracker that did a great geolocating work.
Ukraine is sharing one road border and a ferry crossing with Romania. Both of them were targeted this summer :
🔹August 20th 2026
🔹September 1st 2026
Additionally, Russia targeted at least 3 border post with Moldova :
-Vinohradivka - August 25th 2026 Mirnoe - August 20th 2026
-Starokozache - September 8th geoloc by @giK1893
Many of these strikes remain unreported, I will continue to keep an eye on those.
After bridges, border posts and gas station, which are all part of "Transport - Road" category, it's interesting to see the statistics for this year :
In total, at least 14 gas stations have been targeted by Russia in Odessa region, mainly in the key road between the southern ports and Mykolaiv. These Russian attacks are being conducted by geran-4 drones. Map made thanks to @ShahedTracker that did a great geolocating work.
Ukraine is sharing one road border and a ferry crossing with Romania. Both of them were targeted this summer :
🔹August 20th 2026
🔹September 1st 2026
Additionally, Russia targeted at least 3 border post with Moldova :
-Vinohradivka - August 25th 2026 Mirnoe - August 20th 2026
-Starokozache - September 8th geoloc by @giK1893
Many of these strikes remain unreported, I will continue to keep an eye on those.
After bridges, border posts and gas station, which are all part of "Transport - Road" category, it's interesting to see the statistics for this year :
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3/3 Odesa remained the 1st or second most targeted oblast in terms of long range road and port logistics. This year, Odessa has been very heavily targeted. There was not a single recent day without a Russian strike on the city.
Warehouses are being destroyed, the port is constantly attacked, electric substations and railways are threatened. It's worth noting the high number of attacks against civilian targets in this area : Drones often don't have high rise buildings on their flight path and strikes on civilian buildings are happening everyday. @giK1893 and @99Dominik_ are tracking these strikes very often.
What is Russian strategy in this region ?
▫️Cut the southern part of the oblast from the rest of the country
▫️Stop civilian/economic link with Romania and Moldova
▫️Prevent the use of this part of the country from attacking Crimea with drones.
Thank you for following this thread, I hope you like it and find it useful. I will keep an eye on this.
Warehouses are being destroyed, the port is constantly attacked, electric substations and railways are threatened. It's worth noting the high number of attacks against civilian targets in this area : Drones often don't have high rise buildings on their flight path and strikes on civilian buildings are happening everyday. @giK1893 and @99Dominik_ are tracking these strikes very often.
What is Russian strategy in this region ?
▫️Cut the southern part of the oblast from the rest of the country
▫️Stop civilian/economic link with Romania and Moldova
▫️Prevent the use of this part of the country from attacking Crimea with drones.
Thank you for following this thread, I hope you like it and find it useful. I will keep an eye on this.
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For my Ukrainian 🇺🇦 followers, I will be live on Suspilne News (1st channel) in half an hour (19:30 Kyiv time).
I will talk about Russia’s sabotage activities in Europe, it will be translated directly in Ukrainian.
I will talk about Russia’s sabotage activities in Europe, it will be translated directly in Ukrainian.
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Ukrainian military successes 🇺🇦 continue along a front spanning nearly 90 km, between Borova and Sloviansk.
On this front, Ukrainian forces are on the verge of securing Sloviansk—one of the two key cities in the Donbas—by pushing the frontline further away. The city of Lyman, which serves as the northern gateway to the Donbas, is now well-protected and supplied.
The Russian "Zapad" (West) group has suffered a major defeat this year, while offensive operations are underway to clear out Russian infiltrations further south. The liberation of many of these areas has not yet been officially announced by the Ukrainians; further updates are awaited.
Thus, the limited offensives launched by the Ukrainian Armed Forces in 2026 have resulted in the liberation of twice as much territory as the 2023 counter-offensive...
Map base from t.me/DeepStateUA showing the 4 areas where Ukraine advanced this year.
On this front, Ukrainian forces are on the verge of securing Sloviansk—one of the two key cities in the Donbas—by pushing the frontline further away. The city of Lyman, which serves as the northern gateway to the Donbas, is now well-protected and supplied.
The Russian "Zapad" (West) group has suffered a major defeat this year, while offensive operations are underway to clear out Russian infiltrations further south. The liberation of many of these areas has not yet been officially announced by the Ukrainians; further updates are awaited.
Thus, the limited offensives launched by the Ukrainian Armed Forces in 2026 have resulted in the liberation of twice as much territory as the 2023 counter-offensive...
Map base from t.me/DeepStateUA showing the 4 areas where Ukraine advanced this year.
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Forwarded from Playfra - Maps & Analyses
Stepnohirsk-Orikhiv directions. Summary from Zvizdets Mangusta (Konstantin Mashovets, Ukrainian blogger). For now, it is still unconfirmed from my part.
Stepnohirsk:
- Russians are using more and more of the dried-up Kakhovka riverbed to get around Ukrainian positions in the area. 1 week ago an infiltration group was destroyed in Malokaterynivka.
- The Ukrainians control half of Plavni up to the railway station, the highway up to 2 km south of the overpass, and the overpass itself.
- The Russians are present in Pokrovskaya Street in Prymorske, as well as in the central high-rise buildings of Stepnohirsk and Nezalezhnosti St. in its northernmost part.
- An infiltration attempt was stopped while going to Pavlivka from Kamyanske.
- Pavlivka is under Ukrainian control, 1 Russian group is just south of it, and a larger one is 2 km east. Attacks come from Mali Shcherbaky and Shcherbaky (which I had reported here: https://t.me/PlayfraOSINT/6295).
Orikhiv direction:
- Russian attacks from Mali Shcherbaky and Shcherbaky towards Novopavlivka.
- Russian presence in treelines northwest of Nesteryanka
- The Ukrainians almost completely cleared Orikhiv and Novodanylivka, with 1 very small Russian group remaining in Orikhiv.
- The Ukrainians control Mala Tokmachka; the Russians continue attacking from Novopokrovka; 1 Russian group is in the prison, and 2 other very small groups are in the eastern and northeastern parts of the village.
In general, the Russians continue attacking stubbornly without stopping at all despite heavy losses and still intend to encircle Orikhiv.
https://t.me/zvizdecmanhustu/3612
https://t.me/zvizdecmanhustu/3613
https://t.me/zvizdecmanhustu/3614
Stepnohirsk:
- Russians are using more and more of the dried-up Kakhovka riverbed to get around Ukrainian positions in the area. 1 week ago an infiltration group was destroyed in Malokaterynivka.
- The Ukrainians control half of Plavni up to the railway station, the highway up to 2 km south of the overpass, and the overpass itself.
- The Russians are present in Pokrovskaya Street in Prymorske, as well as in the central high-rise buildings of Stepnohirsk and Nezalezhnosti St. in its northernmost part.
- An infiltration attempt was stopped while going to Pavlivka from Kamyanske.
- Pavlivka is under Ukrainian control, 1 Russian group is just south of it, and a larger one is 2 km east. Attacks come from Mali Shcherbaky and Shcherbaky (which I had reported here: https://t.me/PlayfraOSINT/6295).
Orikhiv direction:
- Russian attacks from Mali Shcherbaky and Shcherbaky towards Novopavlivka.
- Russian presence in treelines northwest of Nesteryanka
- The Ukrainians almost completely cleared Orikhiv and Novodanylivka, with 1 very small Russian group remaining in Orikhiv.
- The Ukrainians control Mala Tokmachka; the Russians continue attacking from Novopokrovka; 1 Russian group is in the prison, and 2 other very small groups are in the eastern and northeastern parts of the village.
In general, the Russians continue attacking stubbornly without stopping at all despite heavy losses and still intend to encircle Orikhiv.
https://t.me/zvizdecmanhustu/3612
https://t.me/zvizdecmanhustu/3613
https://t.me/zvizdecmanhustu/3614
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1/2 In 2026, Russia 🇷🇺 barely advanced in Ukraine 🇺🇦 but continued to update their official maps and claims. This gives more than 5 000 km2 difference between the reality and what Russia claims.
🔹In the Lyman direction, Russian media still control Sviatohirsk, while the frontline is 30km east (deepstate not updated yet).
-> They claim they control Lyman
-> Most of Russian telegram channels updated their maps
🔹In the Vovchansk direction, they encircle a large area and are 20km ahead of the frontline.
-> There is not a single recent geolocation showing this
-> There is no encirclement
🔹In the Kupiansk direction, they still control the city a year after Putin announced they did (which was not the case)
-> They forgot to map recent Ukrainian counter-attacks near Dvorichna
-> They overstate what they control on all the frontline
🔹In the Donbas, they control both Kostiantynivka and Dobropilla and are west of Kramatorsk, 18km ahead of Ukraine.
🔹In the Lyman direction, Russian media still control Sviatohirsk, while the frontline is 30km east (deepstate not updated yet).
-> They claim they control Lyman
-> Most of Russian telegram channels updated their maps
🔹In the Vovchansk direction, they encircle a large area and are 20km ahead of the frontline.
-> There is not a single recent geolocation showing this
-> There is no encirclement
🔹In the Kupiansk direction, they still control the city a year after Putin announced they did (which was not the case)
-> They forgot to map recent Ukrainian counter-attacks near Dvorichna
-> They overstate what they control on all the frontline
🔹In the Donbas, they control both Kostiantynivka and Dobropilla and are west of Kramatorsk, 18km ahead of Ukraine.
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