English version 🇬🇧:
Over the past few months, I’ve mapped more than 5,000 Russian 🇷🇺 guided bomb impacts. With the increase in strikes and the acceleration of Russian advances — how can Ukraine hold?
The current Russian offensive in the south of Donetsk Oblast — now spilling into Zaporizhia and Dnipropetrovsk — began in October 2023. Ukrainian forces have been pushed far from Donetsk. Russia has taken Avdiivka, Marinka, Vuhledar, Kurakhove, Selydove, and Ocheretyne. Since January 1, 2025, Moscow has continued its offensive southwest and east of Pokrovsk (population over 100,000). Russian forces are approaching Kostiantynivka (67,000 residents), gateway to the Kramatorsk urban area (~300,000 residents). Most of the territory captured by Russia since October 2023 is in southern Donetsk Oblast. The army is now advancing north and west into Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhia.
Since October 2023, Russia has gained a major advantage: fire superiority and CAS (close air support) from its air force. Millions of North Korean shells keep artillery active, backed by drones. But the real game changer is the mass production of guidance kits.
Unguided FAB 500/1,000/1,500/3,000 bombs are now precision-guided, dropped from 40–70 km away by Su-34s — far from danger.
Since fall 2022, the Ukrainian front has been largely static — trench warfare. Russia aims to wear down Ukrainian forces while slowly advancing toward goals (Bakhmut, Avdiivka, Kurakhove, Pokrovsk...). In early 2025, Ukraine briefly managed to disrupt FAB guidance, reducing strike volume. But we’re now back to 100–200 bombs dropped daily across the front.
These strikes are visible in videos and satellite imagery, helping to anticipate Russian movements. I identified 1,000+ airstrikes last month supporting the Pokrovsk–Kostiantynivka offensive. I began mapping hundreds of visible impacts using freely available satellite images. They’re easy to see — classic artillery impacts are rarely visible (except in winter).
The problem? Urban airstrikes are harder to detect. I use geolocated videos to supplement mapping. Here are 3,000+ Russian airstrikes in the past 3 months between Pokrovsk and Huliaipole. They support two main offensives: east/northeast of Pokrovsk, and the “three rivers” junction.
East of Pokrovsk, strikes target hedgerows hiding Ukrainian positions, pushing toward encirclement. In the north, I’ve mapped strikes by date: red (before June 11), orange (June 11–July 11), light blue (since July 11).
One hedgerow with Ukrainian positions was devastated — forcing troops to abandon it. A single accurate airstrike can destroy a small position. That’s the underestimated risk with Ukraine’s new defensive line — made of many small fortified sites.
In Sumy, the same story: Russia razed villages and hedges for minimal gains. I mapped 1,700+ bomb impacts in villages and forests near the border. Around 25% of daily airstrikes now hit this area.
Example: dozens of strikes on a forest zone likely hiding Ukrainian troops.
The aim: overwhelm defenses. This is a core component of Moscow’s attrition warfare:
→ Artillery / Drones / FABs
→ Infantry assaults
Can Ukraine hold?
Ukrainian forces face ~200 daily attacks, often by small, lightly equipped groups. They’re also under constant glide bomb strikes. Russian progress isn’t yet critical, but salients are forming (Pokrovsk, Kostiantynivka, Siversk, Lyman, Borova, Kupiansk...) — requiring more men and logistics.
With this sharp increase in airstrikes — especially east and northeast of Pokrovsk — Moscow clearly hopes to capture the city in the coming months. It’s the current top objective.
To journalists, analysts, and mappers following me: this topic — like the one on fortifications — deserves broader public coverage.
Feel free to reach out. Thanks for reading!
Over the past few months, I’ve mapped more than 5,000 Russian 🇷🇺 guided bomb impacts. With the increase in strikes and the acceleration of Russian advances — how can Ukraine hold?
The current Russian offensive in the south of Donetsk Oblast — now spilling into Zaporizhia and Dnipropetrovsk — began in October 2023. Ukrainian forces have been pushed far from Donetsk. Russia has taken Avdiivka, Marinka, Vuhledar, Kurakhove, Selydove, and Ocheretyne. Since January 1, 2025, Moscow has continued its offensive southwest and east of Pokrovsk (population over 100,000). Russian forces are approaching Kostiantynivka (67,000 residents), gateway to the Kramatorsk urban area (~300,000 residents). Most of the territory captured by Russia since October 2023 is in southern Donetsk Oblast. The army is now advancing north and west into Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhia.
Since October 2023, Russia has gained a major advantage: fire superiority and CAS (close air support) from its air force. Millions of North Korean shells keep artillery active, backed by drones. But the real game changer is the mass production of guidance kits.
Unguided FAB 500/1,000/1,500/3,000 bombs are now precision-guided, dropped from 40–70 km away by Su-34s — far from danger.
Since fall 2022, the Ukrainian front has been largely static — trench warfare. Russia aims to wear down Ukrainian forces while slowly advancing toward goals (Bakhmut, Avdiivka, Kurakhove, Pokrovsk...). In early 2025, Ukraine briefly managed to disrupt FAB guidance, reducing strike volume. But we’re now back to 100–200 bombs dropped daily across the front.
These strikes are visible in videos and satellite imagery, helping to anticipate Russian movements. I identified 1,000+ airstrikes last month supporting the Pokrovsk–Kostiantynivka offensive. I began mapping hundreds of visible impacts using freely available satellite images. They’re easy to see — classic artillery impacts are rarely visible (except in winter).
The problem? Urban airstrikes are harder to detect. I use geolocated videos to supplement mapping. Here are 3,000+ Russian airstrikes in the past 3 months between Pokrovsk and Huliaipole. They support two main offensives: east/northeast of Pokrovsk, and the “three rivers” junction.
East of Pokrovsk, strikes target hedgerows hiding Ukrainian positions, pushing toward encirclement. In the north, I’ve mapped strikes by date: red (before June 11), orange (June 11–July 11), light blue (since July 11).
One hedgerow with Ukrainian positions was devastated — forcing troops to abandon it. A single accurate airstrike can destroy a small position. That’s the underestimated risk with Ukraine’s new defensive line — made of many small fortified sites.
In Sumy, the same story: Russia razed villages and hedges for minimal gains. I mapped 1,700+ bomb impacts in villages and forests near the border. Around 25% of daily airstrikes now hit this area.
Example: dozens of strikes on a forest zone likely hiding Ukrainian troops.
The aim: overwhelm defenses. This is a core component of Moscow’s attrition warfare:
→ Artillery / Drones / FABs
→ Infantry assaults
Can Ukraine hold?
Ukrainian forces face ~200 daily attacks, often by small, lightly equipped groups. They’re also under constant glide bomb strikes. Russian progress isn’t yet critical, but salients are forming (Pokrovsk, Kostiantynivka, Siversk, Lyman, Borova, Kupiansk...) — requiring more men and logistics.
With this sharp increase in airstrikes — especially east and northeast of Pokrovsk — Moscow clearly hopes to capture the city in the coming months. It’s the current top objective.
To journalists, analysts, and mappers following me: this topic — like the one on fortifications — deserves broader public coverage.
Feel free to reach out. Thanks for reading!
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After few hours of work, I geolocated around 450 new russian 🇷🇺 airstrikes since july 11th, north and north-east of Pokrovsk 🇺🇦.
Those new airstrikes (in blue) are showing that russian forces intend a strong push north of Pokrovsk.
🧵THREAD🧵1/20 ⬇️
Those new airstrikes (in blue) are showing that russian forces intend a strong push north of Pokrovsk.
🧵THREAD🧵1/20 ⬇️
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