For my Ukrainian 🇺🇦 followers, I will be live on Suspilne News (1st channel) in half an hour (19:30 Kyiv time).

I will talk about Russia’s sabotage activities in Europe, it will be translated directly in Ukrainian.

Ukrainian military successes 🇺🇦 continue along a front spanning nearly 90 km, between Borova and Sloviansk.

On this front, Ukrainian forces are on the verge of securing Sloviansk—one of the two key cities in the Donbas—by pushing the frontline further away. The city of Lyman, which serves as the northern gateway to the Donbas, is now well-protected and supplied.

The Russian "Zapad" (West) group has suffered a major defeat this year, while offensive operations are underway to clear out Russian infiltrations further south. The liberation of many of these areas has not yet been officially announced by the Ukrainians; further updates are awaited.

Thus, the limited offensives launched by the Ukrainian Armed Forces in 2026 have resulted in the liberation of twice as much territory as the 2023 counter-offensive...

Map base from t.me/DeepStateUA showing the 4 areas where Ukraine advanced this year.

Stepnohirsk-Orikhiv directions. Summary from Zvizdets Mangusta (Konstantin Mashovets, Ukrainian blogger). For now, it is still unconfirmed from my part.

Stepnohirsk:

- Russians are using more and more of the dried-up Kakhovka riverbed to get around Ukrainian positions in the area. 1 week ago an infiltration group was destroyed in Malokaterynivka.
- The Ukrainians control half of Plavni up to the railway station, the highway up to 2 km south of the overpass, and the overpass itself.
- The Russians are present in Pokrovskaya Street in Prymorske, as well as in the central high-rise buildings of Stepnohirsk and Nezalezhnosti St. in its northernmost part.
- An infiltration attempt was stopped while going to Pavlivka from Kamyanske.
- Pavlivka is under Ukrainian control, 1 Russian group is just south of it, and a larger one is 2 km east. Attacks come from Mali Shcherbaky and Shcherbaky (which I had reported here: https://t.me/PlayfraOSINT/6295).

Orikhiv direction:

- Russian attacks from Mali Shcherbaky and Shcherbaky towards Novopavlivka.
- Russian presence in treelines northwest of Nesteryanka
- The Ukrainians almost completely cleared Orikhiv and Novodanylivka, with 1 very small Russian group remaining in Orikhiv.
- The Ukrainians control Mala Tokmachka; the Russians continue attacking from Novopokrovka; 1 Russian group is in the prison, and 2 other very small groups are in the eastern and northeastern parts of the village.

In general, the Russians continue attacking stubbornly without stopping at all despite heavy losses and still intend to encircle Orikhiv.

https://t.me/zvizdecmanhustu/3612
https://t.me/zvizdecmanhustu/3613
https://t.me/zvizdecmanhustu/3614

2/2 -> There are videos everyday showing the Ukrainians in the northern part of Kostiantynivka
-> The claim they encircle Dobropilla is not true

🔹In the Zaporizhzhia direction, they are 16km ahead of Ukraine nearly everywhere.

-> They forgot the counter-attacks
-> They encircle and control part of Orikhiv

The real question is, why are they doing that ?
-> Propaganda at home ?
-> To show they continue to advance abroad ?
-> Because they really think they control that ?

Map tool from @M0nstas , comparison of deepstate and ria novosti maps.

This statement from V. Zelensky 🇺🇦 is very interesting (https://x.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/2103906828652282111)

🔹Based on UA air-force numbers, Russia already launched 5 437 drones this month, including 2 730 Geran-4/5 based on Zelensky's claim, 50%.
🔹Based on UA air-force numbers, 4 524 drones were downed this month, while Zelensky claims 1 500 Geran-4/5, 55% of this category.

➡️1 228 Geran-4/5 drones have not been intercepted, while the air forces claims only 913 of the total drones were not downed.
➡️This leaves us with 2 707 Geran-2/Gerbera drones, of which 90% at least are intercepted.

-> Thus, the total number of hits this month is closer to 1 500 than 913.
-> The interesting part is to look at the total interception rate : it's now close to 70% while it was earlier this year between 86% and 90%.

New warfare tactics: parachuting robots behind the front lines 🇺🇦/🇷🇺

Drones, robots, and unmanned systems have been used extensively during recent Ukrainian offensive operations. One key innovation is the use of large Ukrainian "Vampire" heavy-lift drones to parachute small kamikaze ground drones behind enemy lines—sometimes as far as 10 km deep.

The objective? To stage ambushes—using onboard cameras to monitor supply routes, especially at night—as well as to blow up enemy drone operator positions and monitor movement along busy paths.

These small Unmanned Ground Vehicles (UGVs) are very inexpensive and can be mass-produced. On the Lyman front, a look at videos from local Russian Telegram channels reveals that 80% of strikes target these ground drones or "Vampire" units, with relatively few directed at infantry. It is highly likely that slightly larger platforms equipped with machine guns have also been deployed to set ambushes.

It is clear that these platforms represent the future of combat.

This month is set to become the worst month for Kyiv 🇺🇦 since 2022, with more than 155 strikes already recorded

▫️January 2026 - 109 strikes
▫️February 2026 - 51 strikes
▫️March 2026 - 21 strikes
▫️April 2026 - 32 strikes
▫️May 2026 - 90 strikes
▫️June 2026 - 83 strikes
▫️July 2026 - 111 strikes
▫️August 2026 - 113 strikes
▫️September 2026 - 155 strikes
Strikes include Kyiv city and oblast. Total = ~665

There have been fewer missile strikes than in August and July, which can be explained by the fact low-cost Geran-4/5 and Banderol can reach the city. Russia is probably stockpiling missiles for winter strikes.

Recent targets in Kyiv :

▫️Warehouses
▫️Data centers
▫️Airports
▫️Gas stations/train stations
▫️Military/civilian industry

3/3 Playfra made a good post about that : t.me/PlayfraOSINT/6401

Conclusion :

▫️Mid-range strikes continue and are very effective
▫️Winter is going to help these strikes, which will be more effective since the tree cover will disappear
▫️Ukraine is developping long range FPV drones, which are very successful
▫️Often forgotten, but a lot of soldiers are dying from mid-range strikes, especially in the air-defense teams. On the 2 700 strikes I've counted on videos (probably not all the ones that are happening), I believe hundreds of soldiers may be KIA and WIA, sometimes 100 km from the frontline.

The main challenges for Ukraine now :
▫️Increase the number of strikes and decoys to cut key roads from reinforcements and logistics
▫️Protect the drone launches ahead of winter
▫️Keep up the number of missionsand their success rate.

Kyiv 🇺🇦 (city + oblast combined) — September 2026, 168 strikes, here is what was hit :

🔸Logistics Warehouses (mostly civilian) - 72▫️43%
🔸Civilian - Residential - 16 ▫️10%
🔸Debris (on civilian buildings) - 14 ▫️8%
🔸Oil/Fuel - 13 ▫️8%
🔸Industrial - 12 ▫️7%
🔸Critical Infrastructure (data centers) - 11 ▫️7%
🔸Rail - 8 ▫️5%
🔸Military/Airbase - 7 ▫️4%
🔸Unidentified - 6 ▫️3%
🔸Administration - 4 ▫️2%
🔸Civilian - Public Space - 2 ▫️1%
🔸Road Transport - 1 ▫️1%
🔸Civilian - Medical - 1 ▫️1%
🔸Civilian - School - 1 ▫️1%

Most of the strikes hit civilian or civilian related targets (warehouses, gas stations, data centers, residential buildings, railways), with some of them having a possible dual use (railways, warehouses...).

Also, worth noting that many strikes against military/industrial/economic targets fall short, are shot down or the explosion radius hit civilian buildings. In a busy city like Kyiv, nearly any strike makes casualities, which is part of Russian strategy : making life impossible.