1/2 In 2026, Russia 🇷🇺 barely advanced in Ukraine 🇺🇦 but continued to update their official maps and claims. This gives more than 5 000 km2 difference between the reality and what Russia claims.
🔹In the Lyman direction, Russian media still control Sviatohirsk, while the frontline is 30km east (deepstate not updated yet).
-> They claim they control Lyman
-> Most of Russian telegram channels updated their maps
🔹In the Vovchansk direction, they encircle a large area and are 20km ahead of the frontline.
-> There is not a single recent geolocation showing this
-> There is no encirclement
🔹In the Kupiansk direction, they still control the city a year after Putin announced they did (which was not the case)
-> They forgot to map recent Ukrainian counter-attacks near Dvorichna
-> They overstate what they control on all the frontline
🔹In the Donbas, they control both Kostiantynivka and Dobropilla and are west of Kramatorsk, 18km ahead of Ukraine.
🔹In the Lyman direction, Russian media still control Sviatohirsk, while the frontline is 30km east (deepstate not updated yet).
-> They claim they control Lyman
-> Most of Russian telegram channels updated their maps
🔹In the Vovchansk direction, they encircle a large area and are 20km ahead of the frontline.
-> There is not a single recent geolocation showing this
-> There is no encirclement
🔹In the Kupiansk direction, they still control the city a year after Putin announced they did (which was not the case)
-> They forgot to map recent Ukrainian counter-attacks near Dvorichna
-> They overstate what they control on all the frontline
🔹In the Donbas, they control both Kostiantynivka and Dobropilla and are west of Kramatorsk, 18km ahead of Ukraine.
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2/2 -> There are videos everyday showing the Ukrainians in the northern part of Kostiantynivka
-> The claim they encircle Dobropilla is not true
🔹In the Zaporizhzhia direction, they are 16km ahead of Ukraine nearly everywhere.
-> They forgot the counter-attacks
-> They encircle and control part of Orikhiv
The real question is, why are they doing that ?
-> Propaganda at home ?
-> To show they continue to advance abroad ?
-> Because they really think they control that ?
Map tool from @M0nstas , comparison of deepstate and ria novosti maps.
-> The claim they encircle Dobropilla is not true
🔹In the Zaporizhzhia direction, they are 16km ahead of Ukraine nearly everywhere.
-> They forgot the counter-attacks
-> They encircle and control part of Orikhiv
The real question is, why are they doing that ?
-> Propaganda at home ?
-> To show they continue to advance abroad ?
-> Because they really think they control that ?
Map tool from @M0nstas , comparison of deepstate and ria novosti maps.
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This statement from V. Zelensky 🇺🇦 is very interesting (https://x.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/2103906828652282111)
🔹Based on UA air-force numbers, Russia already launched 5 437 drones this month, including 2 730 Geran-4/5 based on Zelensky's claim, 50%.
🔹Based on UA air-force numbers, 4 524 drones were downed this month, while Zelensky claims 1 500 Geran-4/5, 55% of this category.
➡️1 228 Geran-4/5 drones have not been intercepted, while the air forces claims only 913 of the total drones were not downed.
➡️This leaves us with 2 707 Geran-2/Gerbera drones, of which 90% at least are intercepted.
-> Thus, the total number of hits this month is closer to 1 500 than 913.
-> The interesting part is to look at the total interception rate : it's now close to 70% while it was earlier this year between 86% and 90%.
🔹Based on UA air-force numbers, Russia already launched 5 437 drones this month, including 2 730 Geran-4/5 based on Zelensky's claim, 50%.
🔹Based on UA air-force numbers, 4 524 drones were downed this month, while Zelensky claims 1 500 Geran-4/5, 55% of this category.
➡️1 228 Geran-4/5 drones have not been intercepted, while the air forces claims only 913 of the total drones were not downed.
➡️This leaves us with 2 707 Geran-2/Gerbera drones, of which 90% at least are intercepted.
-> Thus, the total number of hits this month is closer to 1 500 than 913.
-> The interesting part is to look at the total interception rate : it's now close to 70% while it was earlier this year between 86% and 90%.
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New warfare tactics: parachuting robots behind the front lines 🇺🇦/🇷🇺
Drones, robots, and unmanned systems have been used extensively during recent Ukrainian offensive operations. One key innovation is the use of large Ukrainian "Vampire" heavy-lift drones to parachute small kamikaze ground drones behind enemy lines—sometimes as far as 10 km deep.
The objective? To stage ambushes—using onboard cameras to monitor supply routes, especially at night—as well as to blow up enemy drone operator positions and monitor movement along busy paths.
These small Unmanned Ground Vehicles (UGVs) are very inexpensive and can be mass-produced. On the Lyman front, a look at videos from local Russian Telegram channels reveals that 80% of strikes target these ground drones or "Vampire" units, with relatively few directed at infantry. It is highly likely that slightly larger platforms equipped with machine guns have also been deployed to set ambushes.
It is clear that these platforms represent the future of combat.
Drones, robots, and unmanned systems have been used extensively during recent Ukrainian offensive operations. One key innovation is the use of large Ukrainian "Vampire" heavy-lift drones to parachute small kamikaze ground drones behind enemy lines—sometimes as far as 10 km deep.
The objective? To stage ambushes—using onboard cameras to monitor supply routes, especially at night—as well as to blow up enemy drone operator positions and monitor movement along busy paths.
These small Unmanned Ground Vehicles (UGVs) are very inexpensive and can be mass-produced. On the Lyman front, a look at videos from local Russian Telegram channels reveals that 80% of strikes target these ground drones or "Vampire" units, with relatively few directed at infantry. It is highly likely that slightly larger platforms equipped with machine guns have also been deployed to set ambushes.
It is clear that these platforms represent the future of combat.
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This month is set to become the worst month for Kyiv 🇺🇦 since 2022, with more than 155 strikes already recorded
▫️January 2026 - 109 strikes
▫️February 2026 - 51 strikes
▫️March 2026 - 21 strikes
▫️April 2026 - 32 strikes
▫️May 2026 - 90 strikes
▫️June 2026 - 83 strikes
▫️July 2026 - 111 strikes
▫️August 2026 - 113 strikes
▫️September 2026 - 155 strikes
Strikes include Kyiv city and oblast. Total = ~665
There have been fewer missile strikes than in August and July, which can be explained by the fact low-cost Geran-4/5 and Banderol can reach the city. Russia is probably stockpiling missiles for winter strikes.
Recent targets in Kyiv :
▫️Warehouses
▫️Data centers
▫️Airports
▫️Gas stations/train stations
▫️Military/civilian industry
▫️January 2026 - 109 strikes
▫️February 2026 - 51 strikes
▫️March 2026 - 21 strikes
▫️April 2026 - 32 strikes
▫️May 2026 - 90 strikes
▫️June 2026 - 83 strikes
▫️July 2026 - 111 strikes
▫️August 2026 - 113 strikes
▫️September 2026 - 155 strikes
Strikes include Kyiv city and oblast. Total = ~665
There have been fewer missile strikes than in August and July, which can be explained by the fact low-cost Geran-4/5 and Banderol can reach the city. Russia is probably stockpiling missiles for winter strikes.
Recent targets in Kyiv :
▫️Warehouses
▫️Data centers
▫️Airports
▫️Gas stations/train stations
▫️Military/civilian industry
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1/3 This article is very good because it talks about how Ukraine's 🇺🇦 mid-range strike campaign continues, the same way as before, with less media coverage. All the data I'm collecting confirms mid-range strikes continue at a similar pace to the past few months.
The number of trucks and vehicles destroyed far from the front by Ukrainian drones continue to be the same as previous months. With autumn and winter coming, tree cover will be less important, which will facilitate strikes against Russian logistics. @414magyarbirds continue to target and destroy energy infrastructure in occupied Ukraine. -> Russian forces will lack gas, electricity and oil for their operations. The number of electric substations hit continue to be very high.
At the same time, Russian radars, air-defense and electronic warfare systems continue to be destroyed as before, mainly into occupied territories.
Frontline units in many areas continue to suffer from mid-range strikes against logistics, energy and rear/command bases.
The number of trucks and vehicles destroyed far from the front by Ukrainian drones continue to be the same as previous months. With autumn and winter coming, tree cover will be less important, which will facilitate strikes against Russian logistics. @414magyarbirds continue to target and destroy energy infrastructure in occupied Ukraine. -> Russian forces will lack gas, electricity and oil for their operations. The number of electric substations hit continue to be very high.
At the same time, Russian radars, air-defense and electronic warfare systems continue to be destroyed as before, mainly into occupied territories.
Frontline units in many areas continue to suffer from mid-range strikes against logistics, energy and rear/command bases.
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2/3 In some directions, (Lyman, Zaporizhzhia...), mid-range strike enable offensive actions. t.me/ivanfrankogroup/247
What was unthinkable 6 months ago is happening right now, everyday, and we forget about it :
🔹Many key roads used for Russian logistics are under constant shelling
🔹Rear bases and depots continue to be targeted
🔹Drones reach every part of the occupied territories on a daily basis
🔹Ukrainian drones can freely move over Melitopol, Mariupol, Donetsk or Luhansk.
To counter this, Russia moved many soldiers from other activities to air-defense escorts of convoys, with the very difficult task to protect convoys.
🔹Most convoys are now protected by ground based AD
🔹Interceptor drones continue to work, but Ukraine uses a lot more of decoys
🔹Convoys are very visible and often targeted by many drones
Another worrying trend for Russia is the range of Ukraine's FPV drones.
We now have regular strikes with FPVs farther than 40km from the frontline. t.me/Ronins_65/1466
What was unthinkable 6 months ago is happening right now, everyday, and we forget about it :
🔹Many key roads used for Russian logistics are under constant shelling
🔹Rear bases and depots continue to be targeted
🔹Drones reach every part of the occupied territories on a daily basis
🔹Ukrainian drones can freely move over Melitopol, Mariupol, Donetsk or Luhansk.
To counter this, Russia moved many soldiers from other activities to air-defense escorts of convoys, with the very difficult task to protect convoys.
🔹Most convoys are now protected by ground based AD
🔹Interceptor drones continue to work, but Ukraine uses a lot more of decoys
🔹Convoys are very visible and often targeted by many drones
Another worrying trend for Russia is the range of Ukraine's FPV drones.
We now have regular strikes with FPVs farther than 40km from the frontline. t.me/Ronins_65/1466
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3/3 Playfra made a good post about that : t.me/PlayfraOSINT/6401
Conclusion :
▫️Mid-range strikes continue and are very effective
▫️Winter is going to help these strikes, which will be more effective since the tree cover will disappear
▫️Ukraine is developping long range FPV drones, which are very successful
▫️Often forgotten, but a lot of soldiers are dying from mid-range strikes, especially in the air-defense teams. On the 2 700 strikes I've counted on videos (probably not all the ones that are happening), I believe hundreds of soldiers may be KIA and WIA, sometimes 100 km from the frontline.
The main challenges for Ukraine now :
▫️Increase the number of strikes and decoys to cut key roads from reinforcements and logistics
▫️Protect the drone launches ahead of winter
▫️Keep up the number of missionsand their success rate.
Conclusion :
▫️Mid-range strikes continue and are very effective
▫️Winter is going to help these strikes, which will be more effective since the tree cover will disappear
▫️Ukraine is developping long range FPV drones, which are very successful
▫️Often forgotten, but a lot of soldiers are dying from mid-range strikes, especially in the air-defense teams. On the 2 700 strikes I've counted on videos (probably not all the ones that are happening), I believe hundreds of soldiers may be KIA and WIA, sometimes 100 km from the frontline.
The main challenges for Ukraine now :
▫️Increase the number of strikes and decoys to cut key roads from reinforcements and logistics
▫️Protect the drone launches ahead of winter
▫️Keep up the number of missionsand their success rate.
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Playfra - Maps & Analyses
About Ukrainian middle strikes over the past couple of months.
- They continue, albeit at a mildly slower rate than at the start.
- The Russians have and are adapting, as known, using primitive MFGs (mobile fire groups) made of trucks with machine guns mounted…
- They continue, albeit at a mildly slower rate than at the start.
- The Russians have and are adapting, as known, using primitive MFGs (mobile fire groups) made of trucks with machine guns mounted…
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Clément Molin
This month is set to become the worst month for Kyiv 🇺🇦 since 2022, with more than 155 strikes already recorded ▫️January 2026 - 109 strikes ▫️February 2026 - 51 strikes ▫️March 2026 - 21 strikes ▫️April 2026 - 32 strikes ▫️May 2026 - 90 strikes ▫️June 2026…
Kyiv 🇺🇦 (city + oblast combined) — September 2026, 168 strikes, here is what was hit :
🔸Logistics Warehouses (mostly civilian) - 72▫️43%
🔸Civilian - Residential - 16 ▫️10%
🔸Debris (on civilian buildings) - 14 ▫️8%
🔸Oil/Fuel - 13 ▫️8%
🔸Industrial - 12 ▫️7%
🔸Critical Infrastructure (data centers) - 11 ▫️7%
🔸Rail - 8 ▫️5%
🔸Military/Airbase - 7 ▫️4%
🔸Unidentified - 6 ▫️3%
🔸Administration - 4 ▫️2%
🔸Civilian - Public Space - 2 ▫️1%
🔸Road Transport - 1 ▫️1%
🔸Civilian - Medical - 1 ▫️1%
🔸Civilian - School - 1 ▫️1%
Most of the strikes hit civilian or civilian related targets (warehouses, gas stations, data centers, residential buildings, railways), with some of them having a possible dual use (railways, warehouses...).
Also, worth noting that many strikes against military/industrial/economic targets fall short, are shot down or the explosion radius hit civilian buildings. In a busy city like Kyiv, nearly any strike makes casualities, which is part of Russian strategy : making life impossible.
🔸Logistics Warehouses (mostly civilian) - 72▫️43%
🔸Civilian - Residential - 16 ▫️10%
🔸Debris (on civilian buildings) - 14 ▫️8%
🔸Oil/Fuel - 13 ▫️8%
🔸Industrial - 12 ▫️7%
🔸Critical Infrastructure (data centers) - 11 ▫️7%
🔸Rail - 8 ▫️5%
🔸Military/Airbase - 7 ▫️4%
🔸Unidentified - 6 ▫️3%
🔸Administration - 4 ▫️2%
🔸Civilian - Public Space - 2 ▫️1%
🔸Road Transport - 1 ▫️1%
🔸Civilian - Medical - 1 ▫️1%
🔸Civilian - School - 1 ▫️1%
Most of the strikes hit civilian or civilian related targets (warehouses, gas stations, data centers, residential buildings, railways), with some of them having a possible dual use (railways, warehouses...).
Also, worth noting that many strikes against military/industrial/economic targets fall short, are shot down or the explosion radius hit civilian buildings. In a busy city like Kyiv, nearly any strike makes casualities, which is part of Russian strategy : making life impossible.
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Ukraine 🇺🇦 just announced the 3rd part of "Vivaldi" operation, liberating multiple villages back in May and June
-> This confirms the main push was done in Nove direction
-> Russia didn't retreat in a good order (250 prisoners, more dead)
Updated map from t.me/DeepStateUA showing the liberation of Nove and mutliple fields around. Date : May 22nd - June 30th
Pictures of part of the POVs captured during the operation. Ukraine claims 2 000 dead at least, which is entirely possible.
-> At least 3 Russian regiments had "no manpower" later...
t.me/ab3army/7520
-> This confirms the main push was done in Nove direction
-> Russia didn't retreat in a good order (250 prisoners, more dead)
Updated map from t.me/DeepStateUA showing the liberation of Nove and mutliple fields around. Date : May 22nd - June 30th
Pictures of part of the POVs captured during the operation. Ukraine claims 2 000 dead at least, which is entirely possible.
-> At least 3 Russian regiments had "no manpower" later...
t.me/ab3army/7520
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Ukrainian 🇺🇦 forces continue to advance and have successes in multiple directions right now. Counter-infiltration actions are also ongoing in Orikhiv, Dobropilla and Kharkiv.
Many directions are currently covered by OPSEC, and when we see how Russian sources are dealing with information in the war from the frontline, it's better not to spread too much.
Many directions are currently covered by OPSEC, and when we see how Russian sources are dealing with information in the war from the frontline, it's better not to spread too much.
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Despite Russian 🇷🇺 29th Army lies about full control of the situation, it seems Ukraine 🇺🇦 continued to advance on the Velika Novosilka front (geoloc : https://x.com/moklasen/status/2104957888137437508?s=20)
2 Ukrainian soldiers entering Shevchenko (captured on June 25th 2025) got killed by a Russian drone
Remember:
▫️Russia's 29th Army are only posting footage that they want us to see
▫️They probably didn't expect this one to be geolocated my
@moklasen
(zoomed in)
▫️Russian millbloggers talked about the situation earlier, as well as some Ukrainian ones
-> Ukraine continued to advance in recent week and the frontline currently displayed by many mappers is way behind (some of them for OPSEC reasons)
-> Fighting for Komar and Shevchenko are ongoing, I have no further information about it.
2 Ukrainian soldiers entering Shevchenko (captured on June 25th 2025) got killed by a Russian drone
Remember:
▫️Russia's 29th Army are only posting footage that they want us to see
▫️They probably didn't expect this one to be geolocated my
@moklasen
(zoomed in)
▫️Russian millbloggers talked about the situation earlier, as well as some Ukrainian ones
-> Ukraine continued to advance in recent week and the frontline currently displayed by many mappers is way behind (some of them for OPSEC reasons)
-> Fighting for Komar and Shevchenko are ongoing, I have no further information about it.
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