Clément Molin
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French Analyst, following the war in Ukraine and other conflicts
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Ukraine 🇺🇦 just announced the 3rd part of "Vivaldi" operation, liberating multiple villages back in May and June

-> This confirms the main push was done in Nove direction
-> Russia didn't retreat in a good order (250 prisoners, more dead)

Updated map from t.me/DeepStateUA showing the liberation of Nove and mutliple fields around. Date : May 22nd - June 30th

Pictures of part of the POVs captured during the operation. Ukraine claims 2 000 dead at least, which is entirely possible.

-> At least 3 Russian regiments had "no manpower" later...

t.me/ab3army/7520
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Ukrainian 🇺🇦 forces continue to advance and have successes in multiple directions right now. Counter-infiltration actions are also ongoing in Orikhiv, Dobropilla and Kharkiv.

Many directions are currently covered by OPSEC, and when we see how Russian sources are dealing with information in the war from the frontline, it's better not to spread too much.
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Despite Russian 🇷🇺 29th Army lies about full control of the situation, it seems Ukraine 🇺🇦 continued to advance on the Velika Novosilka front (geoloc : https://x.com/moklasen/status/2104957888137437508?s=20)

2 Ukrainian soldiers entering Shevchenko (captured on June 25th 2025) got killed by a Russian drone

Remember:
▫️Russia's 29th Army are only posting footage that they want us to see
▫️They probably didn't expect this one to be geolocated my
@moklasen
(zoomed in)
▫️Russian millbloggers talked about the situation earlier, as well as some Ukrainian ones

-> Ukraine continued to advance in recent week and the frontline currently displayed by many mappers is way behind (some of them for OPSEC reasons)
-> Fighting for Komar and Shevchenko are ongoing, I have no further information about it.
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Very interesting footage showing 2 Ukrainian 🇺🇦 tanks escorted by at least 3 different drones, a Vampire heavy bomber, a Mavic and an FPV. Those two tanks conducted counter-infiltration action in Vilkhuvatka (geo from @Bielitzling), Kharkiv oblast.

The 475th Separate Assault Regiment, CODE 9.2 is known for trying offensive actions with armoured vehicles and drones, this one is a very good examples, since both tanks managed to leave the area and sustain many hits.
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Yesterday, Russia 🇷🇺 launched drones and missiles at Kyiv 🇺🇦, once again

But this time, they targeted the energy facilities in the capital city, including 4 power plants, electric substations, and electricity pylons above the Dnipro. This is the signal of the start of the campaign against the Ukrainian energy sector.

🔹CHP-5 (south of Kyiv)
🔹CHP-6 (North-east of Kyiv)
🔹Trypillya Thermal PP (Kyiv oblast)
🔹Hydroelectric PP (Kyiv oblast)

As October is starting, Russia is going to target massively the Ukrainian energy sector, including power plants, links to Europe, electric substations, generators... Here are the possible consequences:

🔹The need to stop nuclear power plants during winter in case there is a lack of electricity to cool down the reactors
🔹Possible attacks against neighboring countries' electric substations connected with Ukraine
🔹A very possible exodus of the population from cities to the countryside and western Ukraine

This fall and winter will be very difficult for Ukraine...
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Russian 🇷🇺 strike campaign against Ukraine's 🇺🇦 gas station ⛽️ continues.

In total, more than 350 Ukrainian gas stations have been damaged or destroyed. Some key roads have been heavily targeted, while Russia recently expanded strikes on Kyiv gas stations (15 in total) and in western Ukraine.

Ukrainian forces also targeted around 50 gas stations, mainly in Belgorod and Donetsk. However, the strategy is to target fuel trucks, in order to have fuel shortages instead of hitting gas stations.
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Dobropilla - the biggest ongoing battle of the Ukrainian🇺🇦 war

The scale of the battle for Dobropilla has rarely been seen before. Russian 🇷🇺 forces are sending hundreds of men on assault everyday, hundreds are being eliminated while the 1st Azov Corps still manages to contain the offensive

Russia is currently massing 4 armies on a 50km front to attack Dobropilla and advance west of Kramatorsk, the main key city under Ukrainian control in the Donbas. In this direction, Russia is using a massive number of drones and KAB guided bombs, as well as hundreds of soldiers

In recent weeks, they managed to advance south of Dobropilla and secure a foothold north and west of the defensive line 0.5 (incomplete). Despite heavy losses, they advanced (mainly the 51st army) and are threatening the city from the south. Further north, the 41st army didn't manage to progress a lot, despite a lot of infiltrations. They suffered from recent counter-attacks from Ukrainian forces, which managed to clear some infiltrated areas
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Russia 🇷🇺 took the initiative in October 2023 and always advanced, despite the fact, which is proven, that their losses increased.

However, after two successful years, Russia is barely advancing anymore right now, thanks to Ukrainian counter-attacks. This does not mean they have been stopped : they continue slower advances, especially in the Donbas, but those are compensated by territories lost to Ukraine.

With this weekly numbers, we can easily see the general trends, which cannot be denyied. Russia is not advancing like before anymore.

Source is from @Pouletvolant3 that is taking his data from @Majakovsk73. His map is not deepstate map and is basing more on geolocations, he is less conservative on maps, I agree with his methodology.
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Impressive work from t.me/oko_gora with maps of reported Ukrainian 🇺🇦 drones and missiles activities in Russia 🇷🇺 during September

Ukraine continued to launch thousands of drones (15 428 were downed based on Russian MOD claim...), with part of them against heavily defended and high value target, such as refineries.

There is a race between Russian air-defense adaptation and Ukrainian drones and missiles program.

There are many targets Ukraine can destroy, which have a very high value. Vladimir Putin said it himself, Ukrainian strikes against refineries cost Russia 1% of GDP this year...
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Russian 🇷🇺 strikes on the Ukrainian 🇺🇦 capital, Kyiv, continue, exploiting a lack of air defense capabilities.

There hasn't been a single day without a strike on the capital in over a month. Russian forces are targeting various locations in rotation, primarily civilian ones:

▫️ September 1–9: Massive strikes on warehouses, plus some strikes on fuel depots, industrial sites, and military targets.
▫️ September 10–15: Strikes on gas stations and warehouses.
▫️ September 16–22: Strikes on railway targets, industrial sites, and warehouses.
▫️ September 23–30: Strikes on electrical infrastructure (substations, pylons, and thermal power plants), data centers (around ten were hit), and other targets, notably warehouses.
▫️ October 1–4: Strikes on bridges, railway infrastructure, and data centers.

Why do Russian drones manage to reach the Ukrainian capital so easily? There are several reasons:
▫️ The standard generation of drones—the Geran-2—almost never reaches Kyiv; they are destroyed beforehand by Ukrainian interceptor drones.
▫️ The new generation of jet-powered drones (Geran-4) and drone-missiles (Geran-5 and S8000 Banderol) fly faster and cannot be intercepted by conventional interceptors.
▫️ The Russians have a constant video feed, even over Kyiv. There are three possible reasons for this:

-> A mesh network involving other drones in the sky
-> The use of Ukrainian telecommunications
-> The presence of Russian infiltrators activating systems from the ground

According to my information, the strikes will likely decrease as new interceptors arrive. Missile strikes, however, require air defense missiles—specifically Patriots...
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